Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

50 Pages«<34567>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Arcus  
#81 Posted : 29 January 2019 15:11:36(UTC)
Arcus

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 7,829
Man
United Kingdom
Location: North Yorkshire

Originally Posted by: David M Porter Go to Quoted Post

 

If they are not seeing clear & consistent signals that make them change their outlook, why should they change anything?

Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

Online Gavin D  
#82 Posted : 29 January 2019 15:16:10(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 25,433
Man
United Kingdom

Revised 16 to 30 day update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.go.../public/weather/forecast

Online moomin75  
#83 Posted : 29 January 2019 15:24:28(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,876

Originally Posted by: Arcus Go to Quoted Post

 

Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?

Actually this is quite a backtrack. As I suggested yesterday, the backtrack will be written slowly over a number of days.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#84 Posted : 29 January 2019 15:27:57(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 8,281
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Seems a much more sensible outlook and still good in many ways.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline Gooner  
#85 Posted : 29 January 2019 15:32:46(UTC)
Gooner

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 44,837
Man

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Seems a much more sensible outlook and still good in many ways.

 

Yep its still good and covers many options - Easterly winds still in there 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Online doctormog  
#86 Posted : 29 January 2019 15:34:51(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74,092

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post

Actually this is quite a backtrack. As I suggested yesterday, the backtrack will be written slowly over a number of days.

It will? What does tomorrow''s update say and how are tomorrow's models looking?

Offline Gooner  
#87 Posted : 29 January 2019 15:36:57(UTC)
Gooner

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 44,837
Man

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post
Revised 16 to 30 day update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Cold weather to continue into February with the potential for Easterly winds to develop , the cold weather will be mixed with rain and sleet around coastal areas with snow inland , in these set ups Northern and Western areas generally stay drier , there will be the odd milder interlude.

Sums it up nicely 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Solar Cycles  
#88 Posted : 29 January 2019 15:42:13(UTC)
Solar Cycles

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/09/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,483
Man
Location: Blackburn Lancs

Originally Posted by: Arcus Go to Quoted Post

 

Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?

Yep, slight backtrack but a backtrack nonetheless. I expect the weather to continue much the same for the next two weeks at least short milder spells interspersed with rather cold ones. Standard winter fayre and certainly nothing to write home about. Roll on spring.

Online moomin75  
#89 Posted : 29 January 2019 15:59:56(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,876

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post

 

It will? What does tomorrow''s update say and how are tomorrow's models looking?

My hunch is that slowly but surely it will downgrade the extent of cold, downgrade further the winds from the East suggestion and the minions will not see the wood for the trees like weather fanatics like us do.

It is a hunch, but that is my belief of what will transpire over the coming days.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Online tallyho_83  
#90 Posted : 29 January 2019 17:52:11(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 11,161
Location: Devon

Interesting video from Gav here explaining the split in models:

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Online Gandalf The White  
#91 Posted : 29 January 2019 19:11:29(UTC)
Gandalf The White

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 48,199
Man

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

Yep, slight backtrack but a backtrack nonetheless. I expect the weather to continue much the same for the next two weeks at least short milder spells interspersed with rather cold ones. Standard winter fayre and certainly nothing to write home about. Roll on spring.

I don't see how you label it as a 'backtrack'. Surely all they do is reflect in the written forecast what their long-range ensemble-based models are showing?  The word 'adjustment' describes the process without the judgemental tone implicit in 'backtrack'.

Anyone not wanting cold weather would describe the change as 'a welcome improvement'

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Offline UncleAlbert  
#92 Posted : 29 January 2019 22:39:05(UTC)
UncleAlbert

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 09/02/2008(UTC)
Posts: 142

IMO, a cold February is still very much on the table.  Granted that the forecasts were wide of the mark for January but crititisms of the METO have been founded on models at 168hrs+ which we all know are on extremely dodgy ground after the SSW.  Surely the outlook is only predictable at this range in strong zonal setups.  Also I hasten to add, the Met bulletins in the last week have included the very crafty caveat: 'and IF very cold conditions were to occur there may be snow at times' or words to that effect.' 

It is easier to see mild coming than it is cold and the Met guys are subject to this truth to some degree as well us amateurs are.  As the models stand at this time I think the main issue is that the threat is from the east rather than from the north east or north as inititually stated.

 

 

Offline Solar Cycles  
#93 Posted : 29 January 2019 23:07:20(UTC)
Solar Cycles

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/09/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,483
Man
Location: Blackburn Lancs

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

 

I don't see how you label it as a 'backtrack'. Surely all they do is reflect in the written forecast what their long-range ensemble-based models are showing?  The word 'adjustment' describes the process without the judgemental tone implicit in 'backtrack'.

Anyone not wanting cold weather would describe the change as 'a welcome improvement'

Most of us here are wanting cold though. 😎

Online tallyho_83  
#94 Posted : 29 January 2019 23:09:09(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 11,161
Location: Devon

Matt Taylor has this LP further south showing more of Devon & Even cornwall in the snow even in channel isles! Karl?

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Online David M Porter  
#95 Posted : 29 January 2019 23:10:31(UTC)
David M Porter

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC)
Posts: 19,209
Man
Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert Go to Quoted Post

IMO, a cold February is still very much on the table.  Granted that the forecasts were wide of the mark for January but crititisms of the METO have been founded on models at 168hrs+ which we all know are on extremely dodgy ground after the SSW.  Surely the outlook is only predictable at this range in strong zonal setups.  Also I hasten to add, the Met bulletins in the last week have included the very crafty caveat: 'and IF very cold conditions were to occur there may be snow at times' or words to that effect.' 

It is easier to see mild coming than it is cold and the Met guys are subject to this truth to some degree as well us amateurs are.  As the models stand at this time I think the main issue is that the threat is from the east rather than from the north east or north as inititually stated.

 

 

Boris Johnson: "Take it on the chin" will haunt him big time at the next General Election.
Offline Lionel Hutz  
#96 Posted : 30 January 2019 09:36:45(UTC)
Lionel Hutz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,230
Man
Ireland

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

Tomorrow's situation really is the clichéd "nightmare for forecasters". Yesterday evening, the Irish Met was hedging its bets, forecasting rain, sleet and snow for much of Ireland. First thing this morning, they had more or less written of our chances of snow tomorrow. Now, it's back on again.

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL

Online Gavin D  
#97 Posted : 30 January 2019 09:47:21(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 25,433
Man
United Kingdom

US to shiver in 'once-in-a-generation' polar vortex

The US will shiver this week in a once-in-a-generation deep freeze, forecasters warn. The most extreme arctic blasts, caused by a spinning pool of cold air known as the polar vortex, could bring temperatures as low as -53C (-64F).

Weather officials in the state of Iowa have warned people to "avoid taking deep breaths, and to minimise talking" if they go outside. At least 55 million people are forecast to experience below zero temperatures.

A state of emergency has been declared in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois as well as in the normally more clement southern states of Alabama and Mississippi.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089?ns_linkname=news_central&amp;ns_campaign=bbc_weather&amp;ns_source=twitter&amp;ns_mchannel=social

Online moomin75  
#98 Posted : 30 January 2019 10:03:43(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,876

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post

US to shiver in 'once-in-a-generation' polar vortex

The US will shiver this week in a once-in-a-generation deep freeze, forecasters warn. The most extreme arctic blasts, caused by a spinning pool of cold air known as the polar vortex, could bring temperatures as low as -53C (-64F).

Weather officials in the state of Iowa have warned people to "avoid taking deep breaths, and to minimise talking" if they go outside. At least 55 million people are forecast to experience below zero temperatures.

A state of emergency has been declared in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois as well as in the normally more clement southern states of Alabama and Mississippi.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089?ns_linkname=news_central&amp;ns_campaign=bbc_weather&amp;ns_source=twitter&amp;ns_mchannel=social

They seem to get a once in a generation polar vortex most years.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Rob K  
#99 Posted : 30 January 2019 10:04:43(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,041
Location: Northeast Hampshire

It’s really annoying how the extreme cold always seems to hit the US. You only have to look at Trump’s idiotic tweets about global warming to see the effect it has.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Online David M Porter  
#100 Posted : 30 January 2019 10:09:13(UTC)
David M Porter

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC)
Posts: 19,209
Man
Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
It’s really annoying how the extreme cold always seems to hit the US. You only have to look at Trump’s idiotic tweets about global warming to see the effect it has.

But I though that global warning was supposed to reduce instances of severe cold occuring in any country, not increase them.

 

Boris Johnson: "Take it on the chin" will haunt him big time at the next General Election.
Users browsing this topic
50 Pages«<34567>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS Icon E Fax CFS UK Met UK Met UK UK Met UKV UK Met MOGREPS-G