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Offline johncs2016  
#921 Posted : 02 November 2019 09:11:32(UTC)
johncs2016

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Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

 

Already it is being panned

Thanks

@metoffice

for not naming or making this storm particularly news worthy. Its bloody chaos in Cornwall. I suppose it doesn't pose a risk to someone's fence panel in the home counties

https://twitter.com/cornwalltrainer/status/1190553602298929154

Normally, Met Eireann would have named these storms by now (they are normally very quick to do that), so where are they in all of this and don't forget as well, that the Dutch weather service have also now just joined this system.

 

Regular heat spikes even in our poorest summers, and record Arctic Sea Ice Melt.

Two reasons why the human race is doomed to total extinction in the very near future, and why our time on this Earth will soon be over as our planet continues to burn up, due to sudden climate change which was man-made, and which is now running completely out of control.

Offline KevBrads1  
#922 Posted : 02 November 2019 09:21:35(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: johncs2016 Go to Quoted Post

 

Normally, Met Eireann would have named these storms by now (they are normally very quick to do that), so where are they in all of this and don't forget as well, that the Dutch weather service have also now just joined this system.

 

I would have thought if Met Eireann were going to name it, they would name if it impacted Eire? If the worst of the  system is going to pass to the south of the country, why should they name it? 

And why should the Met Office leave up to other countries to name it? Why should the Dutch name it, if it is going to impact the UK before it impacts the Netherlands first?

 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX 2020: 174 up to 14th of July

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Gavin D  
#923 Posted : 02 November 2019 11:46:41(UTC)
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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Drier and cooler mid-month, otherwise rather wet.

_________________________________

Saturday 2 November – Sunday 10 November

Wet and windy, becoming drier and colder.

Wet and windy through the weekend, especially for Wales and Southwest England. Rain or sowers will be heavy at times with light lightning risks. Rainfall totals of 50-70 mm are possible of Wales and SW England, especially upland locations, and 50-80 mm for northeast Scotland. Western Scotland should become drier on Sunday. A band of rain will move southeast across the country during Monday, leaving drier and brighter conditions to the north but with a few scattered showers and chillier air moving in. That colder air will spread across the whole country on Tuesday as rain departs the Southeast, leaving some sunshine and a few scattered showers, wintry over northern Scotland. Wednesday will also be chilly, with more rain only slowly pushing north-eastwards across the country.

On its leading edge there will be a period of wet snow over Central and Northern Scotland with some accumulations, and temporarily also over the Southern Uplands and North Pennines before soon turning to rain. Rain will steadily clear eastwards but scattered showers will follow across Wales, the south and southwest of England, and for Scotland, where some will be wintry. A sluggish and complex area of low pressure will keep rain or showers over much of the country through Thursday and Friday.
The end of the week looks drier and colder but not extremely so, with high pressure starting to build across Scotland as low pressure systems drive farther south into Continental Europe. A few showers would be possible in the east thanks to chilly north-easterly winds. Overnight frosts will be widespread.

Monday 11 November – Sunday 17 November

Turning milder and wetter.

Confidence is lower through this period, mainly because a change in the weather pattern is expected but it is uncertain exactly when that will occur. The start of the week looks like maintaining the largely dry and chilly weather with high pressure dominating across the north of the country. These conditions could last through midweek but there will be increasing chances of low pressure systems starting to move closer, bringing periods of rain or a few showers, and it would become somewhat milder.

As the start of the week should stay rather cold with overnight frost and patches of fog, through the second half of the week a changeover to more unsettled weather begins to look more likely, with increasing chances of Atlantic low pressure systems bringing a wetter, windier and milder regime late in the week. The greatest uncertainty is around midweek. There is about a 30 per cent chance that this mobile and low-pressure dominated pattern asserts itself more quickly, bringing wet and windy conditions earlier in the week. Alternatively, there is a low probability, around 10 per cent, of the drier, colder high pressure dominance lingering.

Monday 18 November – Sunday 1 December

Monday 18th to Sunday 1st December

It is unlikely that the latter part of November will see a return colder and drier weather once the unsettled conditions become established. In fact, there is no significantly cold weather on the horizon all the way through to early December. Instead, occasional low pressure systems mid-month look like becoming more frequent, bringing bouts of rain and periodic strong winds. With a generally west to south-westerly flow of winds this should be a relatively mild period of weather with temperatures often above the seasonal average, and only dipping near or a little below average between weather systems.

This expectation is based on the probability of high pressure becoming established in the vicinity of Spain and Italy, pushing a vigorous low pressure track towards the British Isles, often with a deep south-westerly flow bringing moisture and mild air. Not only do longer-range models suggest this type of set-up, analogues for later November and December support the idea of a mobile and unsettled pattern with increasing threats of strong winds. There is moderate confidence on with a 25-30 per cent risk of an alternate scenario whereby the Scandinavian high pressure persists more strongly and exerts more influence on the UK and Ireland. That would mean drier and colder conditions than currently expected.

Further ahead

Mild and wet or cold and dry for the rest of November and early December?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Offline Gavin D  
#924 Posted : 02 November 2019 17:11:57(UTC)
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Thursday 7 Nov - Saturday 16 Nov

Thursday will be mixed with showers or longer spells of rain for some. It will be windy for some with wintry showers on northern hills. Temperatures may stay below average for this time of year bringing the risk of frost and ice. Looking further ahead, the unsettled theme continues with further outbreaks of rain for most parts interspersed with drier and brighter spells. The far north may become drier and colder at times. The changeable weather is likely to clear southeastwards towards the end of the week leaving more settled weather for a time. While confidence is low for the end of this period, temperatures are likely to be back to near average by mid November.

Sunday 17 Nov - Sunday 1 Dec

Through mid to late November, confidence remains very low. The period may start more settled with cold, dry weather and widespread overnight frosts. More changeable conditions may occur in the latter part of the period in alignment with a switch to more frequent west and southwesterly winds over the UK. This could bring more unsettled weather, especially to western parts where there could be the possibility of gales. The east looks like it may see the best of any drier weather, though probably staying windy. Although temperatures are more likely to be below average at the start of the period, they are expected to become near average towards the end of the month with more in the way of mild spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#925 Posted : 02 November 2019 20:10:21(UTC)
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10 day outlook

Starting unsettled
Turning colder
Perhaps drier later

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/50277283

Offline Gavin D  
#926 Posted : 03 November 2019 14:14:18(UTC)
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Friday 8 Nov - Sunday 17 Nov

On Friday outbreaks of rain will slowly clear away southeastwards with brighter conditions extending to many northern and western areas. However, there may be some wintry showers in the northeast. After a brief quieter, drier interlude on Saturday with night frost, more unsettled, possibly windy weather will return from the west bringing more rain. This unsettled theme will probably continue through next weekend into the first part of the following week with snow likely at times on northern hills. Although confidence is currently low, there are signs that there may be some longer drier, brighter interludes developing, bringing more widespread night frosts. It will remain colder than average for most parts, although by mid November we may see temperatures returning to near average as further bouts of unsettled weather occur.

Monday 18 Nov - Monday 2 Dec

Through mid to late November, confidence remains very low. The period may start more settled with cold, dry weather and widespread overnight frosts. More changeable conditions may occur in the latter part of the period in alignment with a switch to more frequent west and southwesterly winds over the UK. This could bring more unsettled weather, especially to western parts where there could be the possibility of gales. The east looks like it may see the best of any drier weather, though probably staying windy. Although temperatures are more likely to be below average at the start of the period, they are expected to become near average after mid-November with more in the way of mild spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Essan  
#927 Posted : 03 November 2019 15:06:45(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: johncs2016 Go to Quoted Post

 Normally, Met Eireann would have named these storms by now (they are normally very quick to do that), so where are they in all of this and don't forget as well, that the Dutch weather service have also now just joined this system.

 


The MetO didn't name it because they didn't issue an amber warning.  Met Eireann didn't name it because they didn't issue an amber warning.  I don't know what criteria the Dutch use.

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Offline Brian Gaze  
#928 Posted : 03 November 2019 15:49:27(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Essan Go to Quoted Post

 


The MetO didn't name it because they didn't issue an amber warning.  Met Eireann didn't name it because they didn't issue an amber warning.  I don't know what criteria the Dutch use.

I think an amber warning was issued by the UK Met.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline Broadmayne Blizzard  
#929 Posted : 03 November 2019 16:39:41(UTC)
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I can only speak for my own locale but Saturdays storm seemed to cause more problems than several of the named one's this year.
Formerly Blizzard of 78
Online NMA  
#930 Posted : 03 November 2019 19:20:34(UTC)
NMA

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I'm not a fan of storm naming but Saturday took some people by surprise in this part of dorsesh sic as the BBC called it, even though it was forecast.

The wind was quite impressive with 3 power outs.

Offline Gavin D  
#931 Posted : 04 November 2019 15:28:17(UTC)
Gavin D

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Saturday 9 Nov - Monday 18 Nov

Saturday should start cold and frosty for most, with patches of fog expected in central and eastern England, which may be slow to clear. A band of rain and cloud is expected to move eastwards across the country into the evening, bringing strengthening winds for most and potential hill snow in the north. Sunday and Monday will most likely continue to be unsettled, and this theme will probably remain throughout the following week. Looking ahead to the later part of the period, although confidence is currently low, some snow is possible in the north, mainly over the hills, whilst the heaviest rainfall is likely to be concentrated across central and southern England. For most parts, it will remain colder than average throughout this period.

Tuesday 19 Nov - Tuesday 3 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains very low. The period may start more settled with cold, dry weather and widespread overnight frosts. More changeable conditions may occur in the latter part of the period in alignment with a switch to more frequent west and southwesterly winds over the UK. This could bring more unsettled weather, especially to western parts where there could be the possibility of gales. We can expect any rain to be heaviest across central and southern areas, with an ongoing risk of snow over hills in the north. There is also potential for stormy periods, and we currently expect temperatures to be below average until the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gooner  
#932 Posted : 05 November 2019 09:50:41(UTC)
Gooner

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Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post

Saturday 9 Nov - Monday 18 Nov

Saturday should start cold and frosty for most, with patches of fog expected in central and eastern England, which may be slow to clear. A band of rain and cloud is expected to move eastwards across the country into the evening, bringing strengthening winds for most and potential hill snow in the north. Sunday and Monday will most likely continue to be unsettled, and this theme will probably remain throughout the following week. Looking ahead to the later part of the period, although confidence is currently low, some snow is possible in the north, mainly over the hills, whilst the heaviest rainfall is likely to be concentrated across central and southern England. For most parts, it will remain colder than average throughout this period.

Tuesday 19 Nov - Tuesday 3 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains very low. The period may start more settled with cold, dry weather and widespread overnight frosts. More changeable conditions may occur in the latter part of the period in alignment with a switch to more frequent west and southwesterly winds over the UK. This could bring more unsettled weather, especially to western parts where there could be the possibility of gales. We can expect any rain to be heaviest across central and southern areas, with an ongoing risk of snow over hills in the north. There is also potential for stormy periods, and we currently expect temperatures to be below average until the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Interesting how the wording has changed from the previous day - too far out to worry about but worth watching given the current output 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline tallyho_83  
#933 Posted : 05 November 2019 12:02:13(UTC)
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Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

 

Interesting how the wording has changed from the previous day - too far out to worry about but worth watching given the current output 

 

Yes Marcus! Yesterday's Met O's update was " Near average after mid November with more in the way of mild spells." and today's is "we currently expect temperatures to be below average until the end of the month."

Edited by user 05 November 2019 12:04:39(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

Offline Gavin D  
#934 Posted : 05 November 2019 14:02:53(UTC)
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Sunday 10 Nov - Tuesday 19 Nov

Sunday should be bright with scattered showers, potentially becoming prolonged spells of rain. It is likely to be another cold day, with a chance of wintry showers on the higher ground of the north. Sunday and Monday will most likely continue to be unsettled with showers expected in all regions, bringing potential hill snow to the north, whilst the heaviest rainfall is likely to be concentrated across central and eastern England. Looking ahead to the later part of the period, although confidence is currently low, snow is possible in the north over the hills, whilst the concentration of heaviest rainfall should continue to be located across central and southern England. There is a potential for occasional stormier periods. For most parts, it will remain colder than average throughout this period.

Wednesday 20 Nov - Wednesday 4 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains very low. The period may start with unsettled conditions, with the rain and wind expected to be more prevalent in the northwest of the UK. There is a likelihood that fog and frost could become more widespread than earlier in November, particularly in the south and east of England, with the fog potentially clearing slowly into the mornings. Throughout this period, there are indications that there could be a slow transition into more settled weather, especially in the south and east of England. This could mean that temperatures may return close to the average by the end of the month, although it could still be rather cold at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline tallyho_83  
#935 Posted : 05 November 2019 14:25:10(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Yes Marcus! Yesterday's Met O's update was " Near average after mid November with more in the way of mild spells." and today's is "we currently expect temperatures to be below average until the end of the month."

 

EDIT:

"Slow transition to more settled weather - This could mean that temperatures may return close to the average by the end of the month, although it could still be rather cold at times."

---------------------------------------------------------------

So not more unsettled weather with potential for stormy spells then?

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

Offline nsrobins  
#936 Posted : 05 November 2019 15:55:42(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

 

I think an amber warning was issued by the UK Met.

No Amber warning was issued in relation to Saturdays system. The existing yellow took a step along the bottom row to higher impact but low risk thus staying just yellow.

The cynic in me thinks they kept it just out of Amber to avoid naming it which is fine in my book because I think the whole naming thing is stupid.

Neil

Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline tallyho_83  
#937 Posted : 06 November 2019 01:13:26(UTC)
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Location: Devon

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

Offline Gooner  
#938 Posted : 06 November 2019 09:25:59(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post
By weather online:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

Interesting but a pinch of salt needed with these 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Brian Gaze  
#939 Posted : 06 November 2019 09:33:24(UTC)
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Posts: 50,402

Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

 

No Amber warning was issued in relation to Saturdays system. The existing yellow took a step along the bottom row to higher impact but low risk thus staying just yellow.

The cynic in me thinks they kept it just out of Amber to avoid naming it which is fine in my book because I think the whole naming thing is stupid.

 I genuinely thought I'd seen the Met put an amber out on Twitter but will take your word for it. Agree wrt the naming system. I read that the Dutch Met have been drafted in this year. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline Gavin D  
#940 Posted : 06 November 2019 10:43:31(UTC)
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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and cooler than normal for most of the month

_________________________________

Wednesday 6 November – Sunday 10 November

Unsettled with a brief dry, cold spell on Friday

The second half of the week and into this weekend will continue with the unsettled and cooler trend we have seen recently, as low pressure remains in charge. After a chilly start on Wednesday, bands of rain will spread into the UK from the west through the morning and afternoon, although northern Scotland and the southeast will see a dry day overall, with rain arriving overnight. On Thursday, a band of rain will stretch through Central Britain although there is a degree of uncertainty just how far north the rain will get to. Further north, rain will turn more showery and eventually ease across Scotland, while southern England escapes with a mostly dry day, bar a few showers towards the south-west. Rain will clear to the south-east on Friday leaving much of the UK with dry and sunny weather.

However, it will remain rather chilly. Overnight temperatures will plummet and most of the country is expected to see lows below freezing. Fog too will develop across some central and south-eastern portions of Britain. A low pressure system is then expected to cross the UK from northwest to southeast on Saturday and into Sunday. As the warm front moves in over the colder air Saturday morning, there is the potential for some early morning snow in the hills of Northwest Britain, before any snow turns back to rain by midday. A wet and cool weekend in store, but with overnight lows milder than those expected Friday night.

Monday 11 November – Sunday 17 November

Drier for some; heavy rain in the north midweek

High pressure is expected to remain across Scandinavia through the second full week of November, which will help to send Atlantic weather systems further south than normal. These systems will tend to cross the UK heading southeast, travelling into France and Spain before reaching the Mediterranean. This will tend to keep the UK cooler than normal throughout the week. Towards the middle of the week, a strong easterly wind over the North Sea and into the northern half of the UK will develop. At the same time, there is the potential for some heavy rain too.

Further south, rain will be lighter and more intermittent with some sunny spells mixed in. The heavy rain will tend to ease later in the week as we start to see a slight rise in pressure. It will still be wet in places, but not nearly as wet as the middle part of the week. Low pressure will remain near or over the UK through the weekend, so more unsettled weather is likely. However, temperatures will likely begin to trend towards the seasonal average.

Monday 18 November – Sunday 8 December

Staying wet but turning milder into December

The second half of November is where the weather become a little trickier to forecast, as the UK nestles between two weather patterns. The first, a stubborn and strong high pressure system over Scandinavia, which would bring cooler and drier weather. The second, a more active period of weather over the North Atlantic bringing some wet, windy but milder weather. It looks, at the moment, as though the Scandinavian high will tend to decline as we head into December but will likely hold on for the bulk of November. What this means for our weather is that initially, we are likely to see slow-moving rain-bearing systems with cooler air and lighter winds.

The pattern will then shift, with the UK seeing shorter-lived but heavier bursts of rain coupled with brief windy spells. These frontal systems will tend to draw in more tropical air from the southwest as they cross the Atlantic, so temperatures should gradually return nearer to average (or perhaps a touch above average heading into December). Confidence is a bit low on what the Scandinavian high pressure area is likely to do in December. We are reasonably confident that any prolonged and unusually cold weather looks unlikely, and snow in low-lying areas is expected to hold off until later in the winter.

Further ahead

We will take another look at December's weather and see what is likely as we approach the Christmas period.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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