SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, July 28, 2019 9:03:57 AM
Did Brian really put a figure on it? It'll be interesting to see if Brian's words were bent out of shape to suit an agenda 😂

I expect a couple more bursts of heat as we head into August. Nice of the Sun to specify exactly how many heatwaves we're due to receive though 😎


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Arcus
Sunday, July 28, 2019 9:13:39 AM

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Snow and hail in Yorkshire...in July

Snow has been reported as falling in Yorkshire - in the same week as the hottest July day ever recorded. Regulars at the Tan Inn watched as the white stuff began falling in North Yorkshire. The snow and hail flurries were captured from the CCTV at the pub near Richmond.

This week, the UK basked in temperatures in the 30s, which caused major disruption to transport links.

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2019-07-27/snow-and-hail-in-yorkshire-in-july/

As the MetO themselves have tweeted, a complete crock. Hail, yes. Snow, no.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be

Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, July 28, 2019 9:40:52 AM

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

 

As the MetO themselves have tweeted, a complete crock. Hail, yes. Snow, no.

The same misreporting from the Tour de France. The white stuff which stopped the race was clearly hail, as you could see from the way it was being cleared up by a JCB


"Quick zephyrs blow, vexing daft Jim" - another weather pangram
roadrunnerajn
Sunday, July 28, 2019 9:58:08 AM
....and we wonder why agencies are so careful with their wording!!!

If they can’t hype it they won’t report it..


Helston Cornwall 62m asl. Land of the eternal spring (13c and overcast mizzle)
Gavin D
Sunday, July 28, 2019 12:20:29 PM

Friday 2 Aug - Sunday 11 Aug

Friday will see a chance of showers for most areas, but there will probably be a good deal of dry and sunny weather too across the UK. Into next weekend we are then most likely going to see a northwest-southeast split develop, with the wettest and windiest weather in the northwest. The best of the drier weather will be towards the southeast, where it will also remain warm. The rest of the period is likely to see low pressure close by, but confidence is low throughout this period. The wettest weather will be in the west, with rain most likely in the form of showers. Temperatures are likely to be close to or just above average, perhaps more especially across the south and southeast.

Monday 12 Aug - Monday 26 Aug

As we move further into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. The north and northwest may see some spells of unsettled weather, with the best of the drier weather across the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and southeast where hot weather on the near continent may spread in at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Gavin D
Monday, July 29, 2019 11:25:52 AM

Saturday 3 Aug - Monday 12 Aug

Saturday will see a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers, possibly thundery across parts of Scotland and northern England. Elsewhere, it should be mostly dry with warm sunny spells. Into next week, low pressure looks likely to be located just to the west of the UK, which would bring a west to southwesterly across the majority of the UK, with the potential for a south to southeasterly flow across the far north of the country. This pattern would bring occasional spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, especially across western parts, with daytime showers breaking out elsewhere. Temperatures will mostly be above average, with warm or very warm conditions possible across the south.

Tuesday 13 Aug - Tuesday 27 Aug

Into the second week of August and there is now a strong signal for unsettled conditions to prevail, with low pressure likely either close to or just to the west of the UK. This pattern would bring a predominately south to southwesterly airflow, which would generally lead to above average temperatures and rainfall. During the second half of August, low pressure looks set to be situated to the northeast of the UK, with perhaps higher pressure towards the southwest of the country. This pattern would lead to a cooler and showery west to northwesterly flow across the UK, with the wettest conditions in the north and west. The signal for higher pressure to be towards the far southwest may lead to possibly drier and slightly warmer conditions at times here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Monday, July 29, 2019 1:16:03 PM
Greater certainty of a low pressure dominated month from the Met Office but with quite a difference between the first and second halves of the month if the above forecast verifies
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Gavin D
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 7:53:42 AM

Met office CPF 

July update

August to October

Temperature summary

For August and August-September-October as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for August-September-October will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-aso-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For August, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. For August-September-October as a whole, the chances of aboveand below-average precipitation are similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for August-September-October will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-aso-v1.pdf

Russwirral
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 9:45:30 AM

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Snow and hail in Yorkshire...in July

Snow has been reported as falling in Yorkshire - in the same week as the hottest July day ever recorded. Regulars at the Tan Inn watched as the white stuff began falling in North Yorkshire. The snow and hail flurries were captured from the CCTV at the pub near Richmond.

This week, the UK basked in temperatures in the 30s, which caused major disruption to transport links.

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2019-07-27/snow-and-hail-in-yorkshire-in-july/

 

I never understand is everyone goes nuts when they see hail in the summer... but its really common.  expecially when thunderstorms are concerned. 


Gavin D
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 11:56:05 AM

Sunday 4 Aug - Tuesday 13 Aug

On Sunday early outbreaks of rain in the west will turn more showery and spread erratically eastwards through the day, with some heavy and thundery showers by the afternoon. Breezy in the west, with temperatures generally near normal. Through the following week, low pressure is likely to be located just to the west of the UK. This would bring west to southwesterly winds across the majority of the UK, but with the potential for a south to southeasterly flow across the far north of the country. This pattern would bring occasional spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, into western parts, with daytime showers breaking out more generally elsewhere. Temperatures will mostly be above average, with warm or very warm conditions possible across the south.

Wednesday 14 Aug - Wednesday 28 Aug

Although confidence is low throughout this period, the middle of August will probably start with unsettled conditions, with low pressure likely to be centred just to the west of the UK. This pattern would bring a predominately south to southwesterly airflow, which as well as bringing periods of showers or longer spells of rain, would generally lead to above average temperatures. Into the second half of August, low pressure will probably move to lie the northeast of the UK, with perhaps higher pressure towards the southwest of the country. This pattern would lead to a cooler and showery west to northwesterly flow, with the wettest conditions in the north and west, although the far southwest may have some drier and slightly warmer weather at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Gavin D
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 8:40:15 AM

 

Extreme weather in Yorkshire, as 10 hottest years on record all within past two decades

The Met Office says the UK's 10 hottest years, in records stretching back to the 19th century, have all occurred since 2002.

Flooding and hailstorms have caused disruption in North Yorkshire, as it was revealed the 10 hottest years since records began have all been in the last 20 years. Nearly a month's rain fell in four hours on Malham Tarn in the Yorkshire Dales and another deluge is likely today.

The extreme weather comes as the Met Office revealed the UK's 10 hottest years, in records stretching back to the 19th century, have all occurred since 2002. Analysis also showed none of the 10 coldest years have been recorded since 1963.

Dr Mark McCarthy, head of the Met Office's national climate information centre, said: "Looking back further into the UK's weather reveals a very interesting timeline, with the top 10 warmest years at the most recent end, since 2002. "Extending the record back by 26 years from 1910 to 1884 didn't bring in any new warm years, but it did bring in a number of new cold years, including several that are now within the top ten coldest years."

 

https://news.sky.com/story/couple-rescued-from-cliff-edge-as-flooding-hits-north-yorkshire-11773807

Gavin D
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 9:34:06 AM

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and breezy at times in August but drier later

_________________________________

Wednesday 31 July – Sunday 4 August

Sunshine and showers. Warm later this week.

Wednesday will be breezy and showery in places with the showers heaviest and most widespread over northern England and Scotland. Some of the showers are likely to be thundery. Fewer showers further south with sunshine at times. On Thursday and Friday, most areas will have lighter winds. Many places will also have sunny intervals but showers are likely to develop again on both days although they should be lighter. The best of any lengthier periods of dry and sunny weather will be over western coasts and islands. This weekend, warmer and rather humid air is likely to drift in from the south with temperatures reaching the mid-20s Celsius in parts of the south. Saturday is expected to have the best of the sunshine. On Sunday, showery outbreaks of rain are likely to spread north-eastwards through the day, these perhaps becoming quite widespread later on.

Monday 5 August – Sunday 11 August

Turning wetter and breezier than normal for August

Next week may start dry and bright, at least for central, southern and eastern areas, thanks to a ridge of high pressure. However, it looks as though low pressure areas will then move in from the Atlantic. The track of these low pressure areas are likely to be further south than we might normally expect in August, bringing wetter conditions more widely than normal. Through the week, showers and bands of rain are likely to spread from the west at times, bringing above normal rainfall amounts to many for this time of year.

However, rainfall amounts in Scotland should be nearer normal. It is likely to become breezy at times, too, with brisk west or south-westerly winds. Despite the showers and rain, it should be rather warm with temperatures mostly near or slightly above the seasonal average. Most places will also see occasional drier and brighter interludes.

Monday 12 August – Sunday 25 August

Unsettled at first, then drier and warmer later

The middle part of August is likely to see a persistence of unsettled weather as further low pressure areas move in from the Atlantic at times. We might even see one or two ex-tropical storms reaching near our shores from the tropical Atlantic, bringing the potential for occasionally very wet and blustery weather, particularly in the west. Rainfall amounts are likely to remain above normal for August for most areas and it is expected to be breezy at times.

However, as we move into late August, there are some indications for drier weather to spread from the south. Central, southern and eastern areas of England could become much drier and warmer with the likelihood of a few hotter days. It should become calmer too. Further north and north-west, it may take longer for the rain to give way to drier conditions. However, it should at least become less wet than the preceding couple of weeks and a little warmer too.

Further ahead

August still looks like being a changeable month. We will take another look at the prospects for some drier and warmer weather later in the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Russwirral
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 12:58:47 PM

https://snowdon.live/

 

Snowdon sunmit current conditions has gone live today

 

Very useful


tallyho_83
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 9:38:18 PM
Is it me or has the BBC axed broadcasting the UK national weather at 22:35 after Spotlight? - Just something I have noticed for the past week or so!?? anyone?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com



Gavin D
Thursday, August 1, 2019 11:17:11 AM

Tuesday 6 Aug - Thursday 15 Aug

Bands of rain and showers across western and northern areas are likely to move northeastwards during Tuesday, heavy in places and with the risk of thunder. The southeast is likely to see the driest and brightest weather, and it will be warm here. Through the rest of the week, low pressure is likely to drift east across the UK maintaining showery conditions. Occasional spells of rain, which could be heavy in places, will move east at times, with daytime showers breaking out more generally elsewhere. Similar conditions are forecast to persist through to mid-month with any drier spells relatively short-lived. Temperatures will mostly be around average, but if winds become more southerly at times then some warm or very warm weather may develop across the south.

Thursday 15 Aug - Thursday 29 Aug

Although confidence is low throughout this period, the middle of August will probably start with unsettled conditions, with low pressure likely to be centred just to the west of the UK. This pattern would bring a predominately south to southwesterly airflow, which as well as bringing periods of showers or longer spells of rain, would generally lead to above average temperatures. Into the second half of August, low pressure will probably move to lie the northeast of the UK, with perhaps higher pressure towards the southwest of the country. This pattern would lead to a cooler and showery west to northwesterly flow, with the wettest conditions in the north and west, although the far southwest may have some drier and slightly warmer weather at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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