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Offline Gavin D  
#881 Posted : 20 October 2019 18:06:04(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
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John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Major change ahead
  • Chance of early wintry spell
  • Drier weather emerging

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/10/18/john-hammond-month-ahead-ready-for-fireworks/

Offline Gavin D  
#882 Posted : 21 October 2019 14:25:42(UTC)
Gavin D

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Saturday 26 Oct - Monday 4 Nov

Rain and strong winds are likely at times, especially in northern and western parts during Saturday and spread to most areas by the end of the weekend followed by colder, showery weather. Next week it may become drier and more settled again with some sunshine but also overnight fog patches, which could be slow to clear by day. However, Atlantic fronts could still bring further rain and strong winds across western parts of UK at times. There will probably be some marked variations in temperature across the UK but more often below average in the north and above average in the south. However, the more settled spells could bring colder conditions more widely at times, accompanied by night frosts.

Monday 4 Nov - Monday 18 Nov

There is significant uncertainty through this period. However, the second week of November may become more settled and dry for many areas with a some sunny spells. Any spells of rain are more likely in southern and southwestern areas. Temperatures will probably be a little below average with overnight frosts and fog patches likely, which could persist well into the mornings. Further spells of unsettled, windy conditions with some rain or showers are expected to become more likely towards the middle of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Offline Gavin D  
#883 Posted : 22 October 2019 14:40:11(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
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Sunday 27 Oct - Tuesday 5 Nov

After a wet start to the weekend, Sunday will be drier and cooler with sunny spells for most of the UK. Scattered showers will continue in the north with some turning heavy at times. Into next week, it is likely we will see some dry spells with plenty of sunshine across all areas. It may also be windy, with severe gales possible in places. Northern areas may see some colder outbreaks leading to overnight frosts and some showers may turn wintry over the hills. However, in the south it may be milder overall. Moving into November, it is possible that drier, more settled spells will continue with temperatures near or a little below average with night frosts at times.

Tuesday 5 Nov - Tuesday 19 Nov

The first half of November should be mostly settled and dry for the majority of the UK with plenty of sunny spells. Although there is significant uncertainty for this period, any rain or showers are most likely to be in southern and southwestern areas. It seems probable that temperatures will be a little below average with the potential of frosts and fog patches forming overnight. Despite the mainly settled outlook, more changeable periods of rain or showers may be possible too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Offline tallyho_83  
#884 Posted : 23 October 2019 09:19:47(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
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Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post

Sunday 27 Oct - Tuesday 5 Nov

After a wet start to the weekend, Sunday will be drier and cooler with sunny spells for most of the UK. Scattered showers will continue in the north with some turning heavy at times. Into next week, it is likely we will see some dry spells with plenty of sunshine across all areas. It may also be windy, with severe gales possible in places. Northern areas may see some colder outbreaks leading to overnight frosts and some showers may turn wintry over the hills. However, in the south it may be milder overall. Moving into November, it is possible that drier, more settled spells will continue with temperatures near or a little below average with night frosts at times.

Tuesday 5 Nov - Tuesday 19 Nov

The first half of November should be mostly settled and dry for the majority of the UK with plenty of sunny spells. Although there is significant uncertainty for this period, any rain or showers are most likely to be in southern and southwestern areas. It seems probable that temperatures will be a little below average with the potential of frosts and fog patches forming overnight. Despite the mainly settled outlook, more changeable periods of rain or showers may be possible too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

So rain and showers a possibility and not wet and windy with a more unsettled spell towards middle of month now, like they said in previous update? 

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline Gavin D  
#885 Posted : 23 October 2019 12:48:48(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Chilly and calm next week, then milder and wetter.

_________________________________

Wednesday 23 October – Sunday 27 October

Unsettled weather then colder and drier.

Two bands of rain are going to move across the UK from two directions. The first brings rain across Scotland and Northern Ireland from the northwest, accompanied by strong winds, moving into Wales and northern England for the night-time. The second brings patchier rain from the southeast towards the Midlands. In between these it will be dry and bright for a while. Thursday will see these belts of rain across England and Wales weaken but north and west Scotland will have widespread showers, some heavy, with strong winds, up to gale force or even severe gale force in exposed western regions.


On Friday, southwest winds will bring slightly warmer conditions, especially across southeast England, between high pressure to the southeast and low pressure moving towards southern Ireland. The associated warm front pushes rain across Wales, most of England and southern Scotland, likely heaviest across Wales, northwest England and the north Midlands. Rain will only reach southeast England later in the day but strong winds could develop here. Northern Scotland will have scattered, blustery showers, some wintry at higher elevations. As rain becomes heavier there could also be some wet snow mixing in over the Southern Uplands, the Pennines and Snowdonia.

Rain will only slowly start to clear east and south-eastwards during Saturday and Saturday night, finally leaving Kent late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Northern Ireland and Scotland will have blustery showers, some heavy, widespread in areas exposed to the north-northwest wind. Other areas will have a lot of dry weather but a few stray showers could get pushed southwards. Most notably there will be colder air moving right across the country with temperatures below average everywhere.

Monday 28 October – Sunday 3 November

Rather cold and dry.

"Dry and chilly" would be a simple way to sum up the expected weather during the end of October and start of November. High pressure is expected to move in from the northwest and settle across the UK for a few days. This will mean frosty and occasionally foggy nights but otherwise mostly fine, dry and quite calm weather. However, winds could back north-easterly for a while, and this might cause a few North Sea showers to drift into eastern coastal areas of England and the north and east of Scotland, most likely around Monday 28th -Tuesday 29th October.

These could be wintry over higher ground just inland. There is a slight chance (about 25 per cent probability) that high pressure will become positioned a little farther east, and this would allow milder south to southwest flows into the UK. Later in the week the high pressure could weaken a little, and this could open the door to frontal systems coming across Scotland and then southwards down the North Sea, bringing chances of precipitation across northern and eastern regions.

Monday 4 November – Sunday 24 November

Turning milder and wetter.

There is a chance that high pressure could rebuild for a while near the British Isles during the first half of November, keeping quite dry weather for many areas for a while, although northern and western regions look increasingly likely to catch some rain and occasionally stronger winds. As the month wears on it looks more like that high pressure will slip away south-eastwards into the European continent, with low pressure areas often located to the west or northwest of the British Isles. This should ensure some milder southwest and westerly flows with temperatures lifting near seasonal or slightly above.

However, these low pressure systems are likely to move closer to the UK to bring bands of rain across more of the country, with increasing winds at times. Western and northern areas of the UK would be most likely to have the wettest and windiest conditions. Rainfall amounts should stay near normal for November over central and eastern areas of England.
Overall, we see a supressed risk of any significant wintry weather through this period. The main risk is that low pressure develops more strongly over the UK, bringing more widely wetter and windier than average conditions.

Further ahead

We will see if the set up for mid-November gives us any more detail on when the change from the drier, colder conditions to milder and wetter ones will happen.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather

 

Offline Gavin D  
#886 Posted : 23 October 2019 14:28:24(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
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Monday 28 Oct - Wednesday 6 Nov

The start of next week will see mainly dry and bright spells with plenty of sunshine across most of the UK. On Monday, widespread frost will develop away from the coastal areas of Northern Ireland, northern Scotland and eastern England where a few showers are likely to continue. Further ahead, northern areas may see some colder outbreaks leading to overnight frosts and some showers may turn wintry over the hills. However, in the south it may be milder overall. Despite uncertainty at this time, as we move into November, it is possible that drier, more settled spells will continue with temperatures near or a little below average. This could bring night frosts as well as the risk of patchy fog at times.

Thursday 7 Nov - Thursday 21 Nov

The first half of November should be mostly settled and dry for the majority of the UK with plenty of sunny spells. Although there is significant uncertainty for this period, any rain is most likely to be confined to western areas. It seems probable that temperatures will be a little below average with the potential of frosts and fog patches forming overnight. Despite the mainly settled outlook, more changeable periods with rain or showers may be possible too bringing milder spells. These, however, are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Offline Gavin D  
#887 Posted : 24 October 2019 13:41:30(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
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UK snow forecast map: Weather chart shows more than 20cm of snow to engulf UK this weekend

 

BRITONS will be hit by a cold front this weekend in many parts of the country and for some, the cold weather could bring over 20cm of snow, a weather map has revealed.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1195048/uk-weather-forecast-snow-this-weekend-bbc-weather-met-office

 

UK weather forecast: Yellow weather warning issued as Britain faces 'significant' snowfall

 

BRITAIN will be struck by snow going into the weekend and yet more torrential rain as the Met Office issues a yellow weather warning for the nation.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1194893/uk-weather-forecast-latest-met-office-update-october-2019-autumn-weather-warning

Offline doctormog  
#888 Posted : 24 October 2019 13:54:22(UTC)
doctormog

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Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 69,140

Possibly some of the worst meteorological journalism I have had the misfortune to read. Even by Express standards of embellishing factual information with garbage those stories take the biscuit.
Offline Gavin D  
#889 Posted : 24 October 2019 14:25:26(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
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Tuesday 29 Oct - Thursday 7 Nov

Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells across most of the UK. However, more unsettled conditions accompanied by rain and stronger winds may move into southern parts around the middle of next week, perhaps extending north across more of the UK for a time. However, later next week, brighter weather will probably develop from the north but with showers, which could be wintry in the north. At the start of November, things become very uncertain, but we may begin to have some more unsettled spells again with further bouts of wind and rain in many parts. It will be generally colder than average for the time of year with night frosts probably becoming widespread during quieter drier spells. Temperatures may rise to near normal at times in the south.

Friday 8 Nov - Friday 22 Nov

The first half of November should be mostly settled and dry for the majority of the UK with plenty of sunny spells. Although there is significant uncertainty for this period, any rain is most likely to be confined to western areas. It seems probable that temperatures will be a little below average with the potential of frosts and fog patches forming overnight. Despite the mainly settled outlook, more changeable periods with rain or showers may be possible too, bringing milder spells. These, however, are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline idj20  
#890 Posted : 24 October 2019 14:29:19(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Possibly some of the worst meteorological journalism I have had the misfortune to read. Even by Express standards of embellishing factual information with garbage those stories take the biscuit.


Indeed, I'm not sure why they are even worth being posted on this site in the first place. 

Offline tallyho_83  
#891 Posted : 25 October 2019 01:33:57(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,487
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post



Indeed, I'm not sure why they are even worth being posted on this site in the first place. 

 

So 20cms of snow...but ....the funniest part in the daily Express's report was one sentence about their prediction! given that Friday evening and night into Saturday London and the south are going to be the mildest at +16 or 17c even - so that's polar conditions is it?? Anyway, i'll let them off as they said could* reach as far south as London,- not will*. 

I never laughed so much ever before when I read this!?  -I was literally in stitches!! cracking!!

"With predictions Polar conditions could reach as far south as the capital it will be the first time snow has fallen in London in October since 2008."

 

Edited by user 25 October 2019 01:39:44(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline Gavin D  
#892 Posted : 25 October 2019 08:01:07(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
Man
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UK weather forecast: Met Office warns a month's rain will fall in just 30 hours

 

Quote

A month's worth of rain is expected to fall over 30 hours today and tomorrow, the Met Office warns. Snow showers will also hit parts of northern Britain today as the first 'significant' mountain snow of the season arrives. Met Office forecaster Aidan McGivern said 100 to 120mm of rain is possible over the peaks of Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons in Wales.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-forecast-met-office-warns-a-months-rain-will-fall-in-just-30-hours/ar-AAJkfeA?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ACERDHP17

 

Offline Gavin D  
#893 Posted : 25 October 2019 13:39:32(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
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Wednesday 30 Oct - Friday 8 Nov

Wednesday will probably start mainly dry with sunny spells across most of the UK. However, more unsettled conditions accompanied by rain and stronger winds will probably move into southwestern parts during the day, perhaps extending north across more of the UK on Thursday. However, later next week, brighter weather may develop from the north but with showers, which could be wintry in the north. By this time things become very uncertain. However, the first part of November will probably have some unsettled spells again with further bouts of wind and rain in many parts. It will be generally colder than average for the time of year with night frosts probably becoming widespread during quieter drier spells. Temperatures may rise to near normal at times, more especially in the south.

Friday 8 Nov - Friday 22 Nov

The first half of November should be mostly settled and dry for the majority of the UK with plenty of sunny spells. Although there is significant uncertainty for this period, any rain is most likely to be confined to western areas. It seems probable that temperatures will be a little below average with the potential of frosts and fog patches forming overnight. Despite the mainly settled outlook, more changeable periods with rain or showers may be possible too, bringing milder spells. These, however, are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Offline Gavin D  
#894 Posted : 26 October 2019 09:31:39(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Chilly and calm next week, then milder and wetter.

_________________________________

Saturday 26 October – Sunday 3 November

Chilly and largely dry. Some rain in the SW later.

The heavy rain band will only slowly clear away southeast through Saturday, with continuing flooding threats across the north of England, the Southwest and Wales, especially the latter. Winds will be strong across southern counties, gusting 40-50 mph. The rain will clear southeast out of Kent late evening or overnight. Colder air already in place over Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England early Saturday will follow the rain clearance. The west and north of Scotland will have a rash of showers, some heavy, and wintry above 500-600 m. Winds here will moderate slightly but increase again later to gust 45-55 mph. Sunday will dawn frosty except in the Southeast and it will stay chilly through the day. There will be a lot of dry and sunny weather around but further showers over northwest and northern Scotland, although these will start to become fewer as winds ease. Just a few isolated showers could drift across SW Scotland, NW England and N Wales.

Monday and Tuesday will be chilly with overnight frosts but many areas will have sunshine. A few showers are possible for N Scotland and could drift from the North Sea onto eastern coasts. Any such showers should shift to southern East Anglia and Kent on Tuesday. S Wales and the SW and far S of England will become cloudier with a chance of a period of rain or drizzle for a time Monday night into Tuesday. The rest of the week has rather low confidence. Many areas should stay dry and chilly, especially the farther north and east you are. There are chances of rain across SW England, Wales and far southern England but it is very uncertain how far this will come, although through the weekend the chances of rain pushing farther north and east increase a little.

Monday 4 November – Sunday 10 November

Chilly for the north, rain risk in south and west

Confidence in the forecast is only moderate at best. Most likely there will be high pressure developing over Scandinavia and exerting its influence sufficiently to maintain chilly and mostly dry weather across northern and north-eastern parts of the UK with just occasional shower chances. It looks like Atlantic low pressure systems will begin to reactivate but indications are that they will tend to move towards western and south-western Europe.

It is therefore questionable how far their influence will extend across the UK but frontal systems should push far enough north to bring chances of periodic rain and increased winds to southern and western regions. This should also bring some milder air across the more southern areas of Britain. The main risk to this forecast is that low pressure systems will push farther north to bring wetter and windier conditions to more of the country by the second week of November.

Monday 11 November – Sunday 24 November

Turning milder and wetter.

Although confidence remains low, what is most likely to happen during mid to late November is that low pressure systems will finally start to have more impact. The low pressure track into W and SW Europe should shift farther north, bringing not only periods of rain and stronger winds but also somewhat milder conditions with temperatures lifting near or a little above seasonal.

If this situation evolves as expected, then wettest and windiest weather would most likely be across northern and western regions of the UK. There looks to be little risk of any significant wintry weather through this period. The main risk is that the atmospheric pattern ends up with stronger high pressure building west of the UK, and this would drive colder and less wet conditions across the country. Nevertheless, even if this less likely situation were to develop then there shouldn't be any risk of severe cold.

Further ahead

We will look again at this expected change further into November. Will there be more confidence on a switch to this wetter, windier and milder pattern, or will low pressure systems continue to slip more into west and southwest Europe?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Offline Gavin D  
#895 Posted : 26 October 2019 10:42:42(UTC)
Gavin D

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Rain causes travel disruption in Wales and Shropshire

Quote

 

Roads and rail services have been affected by heavy rain continues to fall across most of Wales and parts of western England. A Met Office weather warning said many places would see 2in-3in (60mm-80mm) with south-east and south-west Wales expected to be hardest hit. There are also a dozen flood warnings in place across Wales. Traffic Wales said roads in Ceredigion and Powys had been flooded while some rail services have also been affected.

Transport for Wales (TfW) advised rail travellers to check journeys before travelling. Flooding has led to line closures between Shrewsbury and Welshpool, Abercynon and Aberdare and on the Fishguard Harbour Line.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50192517?ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_linkname=news_central

 

Offline Gavin D  
#896 Posted : 26 October 2019 14:17:29(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
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Thursday 31 Oct - Saturday 9 Nov

On Thursday there will probably be a return of wet and windy weather moving in from the west. However, there is a lot of uncertainty of the timing of the breakdown, with a small chance that more settled conditions could hang on for the east. For next weekend and early next week, unsettled wet and windy conditions may return to all parts, however, there is low confidence during this period. The first part of November will probably have some unsettled spells again with further bouts of wind and rain in most parts. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, or slightly below, with night frosts probably becoming widespread during quieter drier spells.

Sunday 10 Nov - Sunday 24 Nov

Through this period confidence is low. However, unsettled conditions look more likely, giving showers or longer spells of rain, with snow likely at times on high ground, especially in the north. Some more settled spells are possible, with driest conditions most likely to be in the north and northwest of the UK. Through mid to late November we may see a change to more frequent west or southwesterly winds with wetter conditions in the west and drier spells in the east. Although temperatures may be below average at first, they are expected to become near average through mid to late November, with more in the way of mild spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Caz  
#897 Posted : 27 October 2019 06:06:25(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,408
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

My weather app seems a little confused by the clocks going back this morning.  It shows that here, sunrise is at 07:52 and sunset at 17:43.  Yet 5 miles South, sunrise is at 06:52 and sunset at 16:43.  I know we’re out in the sticks but we’re not that far behind time!   

I hope it’s at least got the weather forecast right - dry and sunny all day!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Gavin D  
#898 Posted : 27 October 2019 13:17:16(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
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Friday 1 Nov - Sunday 10 Nov

On Friday, overall conditions are expected to be more unsettled than of late for western regions, but still a lot of dry weather for central and eastern parts, with temperatures recovering to around average for the time of year. Moving towards next weekend and early next week, more unsettled wet and windy weather may return to all parts, however, there is low confidence during this period. The first part of November will probably have some unsettled spells again with further bouts of wind and rain moving in from the west across most regions. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, or slightly below, with night frosts probably becoming widespread during quieter drier spells.

Monday 11 Nov - Monday 25 Nov

Through this period confidence is low. However, unsettled conditions look more likely, giving showers or longer spells of rain, with snow likely at times on high ground, especially in the north. Some more settled spells are possible, with driest conditions most likely to be in the north and northwest of the UK. Through mid to late November we may see a change to more frequent west or southwesterly winds with wetter conditions in the west and drier spells in the east. Although temperatures may be below average at first, they are expected to become near average through mid to late November, with more in the way of mild spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Offline Gavin D  
#899 Posted : 28 October 2019 14:43:47(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,621
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Met office CPF update

 

October update

November to January

Temperature summary

For November and November-December-January as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for November-December-January will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 50% and 55% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-ndj-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For November, the chances of above-average and below-average precipitation are similar. For November-December-January as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for November-December-January will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 35% and 40% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-ndj-v1.pdf

Offline Brian Gaze  
#900 Posted : 28 October 2019 14:46:03(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 46,715

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post

Met office CPF update

 

October update

November to January

Temperature summary

For November and November-December-January as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for November-December-January will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 50% and 55% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-ndj-v1.pdf

 

I know these come in for criticism in some quarters. What I would say is that I can't remember (although I have a terrible memory for this sort of thing) a CPF in previous years suggesting such a HIGH probability of a mild or very mild winter. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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