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Offline Gavin D  
#741 Posted : 24 August 2019 11:04:35(UTC)
Gavin D

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Very warm at first, then unsettled for a time

_________________________________

Saturday 24 August – Sunday 1 September

A hot weekend for some; more unsettled next week

The weather for the weekend and the start of next week will feature a lot of very warm, perhaps hot weather, especially for central, southern and eastern England. We are expecting above normal temperatures in most areas, with the hottest places likely to reach 30 Celsius or perhaps a little higher. It should be largely dry this weekend and on Monday, although a few scattered showers are possible across Northern Ireland and western Scotland on Saturday. There could also be a few showers for England and Wales on Sunday and Monday, and rain could move into western Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland on Monday evening.

The warm weather is expected to give way to cooler and more unsettled weather next week. There is some uncertainty over the exact timing of this transition, but it is likely to take place sometime around the middle of the week as a cold front passes south-eastwards across the country. There may be some thundery showers before this front arrives. It looks like the second half of the week will be cooler than the first half, although for many areas temperatures will remain near or perhaps above normal for the time of year. It does look likely to become more unsettled with showers and rain moving in from the west to affect some areas. However, the south of the country may avoid most of the showers as high pressure centred over mainland over Europe remains nearby. That said, there is a chance that this high pressure area moves further south, and all areas of the UK become more unsettled by the end of next week.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 8 September

Unsettled with some wet and perhaps windy weather

Low pressure is expected to be the main feature across northern Europe through most of the first full week of September. This suggests that the weather will remain unsettled, with showers and longer spells of rain for many, and a chance of some spells of breezy or windy weather with temperatures near normal. Some parts of the country could end up wetter than normal for the time of year, although at present we don't see any signs of very wet weather. There tends to be an increasing level of uncertainty in the forecast the further into the future we look. This time of year also sees an added amount of uncertainty introduced into the forecast as the North Atlantic hurricane season picks up.

Forecasting models don't always handle the impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms consistently, so generally confidence in the forecast tends to be a bit lower in September than at other times of year. The main uncertainty for the start of September is how extensive low pressure is across northern and north-western Europe. There is a chance that the weather could be wetter and windier than we expect, and it would probably be cooler than expected too. However, it is worth noting that there is still a slight chance that we will see high pressure building across western Europe at times, and the weather being calmer and drier at times.

Monday 9 September – Sunday 22 September

Turning drier and warmer than normal in most areas

The run up to mid-month should see high pressure becoming established over north-eastern Europe, with Atlantic low pressure systems tending to be deflected into western and south-western Europe. This should mean that the UK sees the weather becoming less unsettled and there should be some good spells of drier weather for many areas, although the south and west of the UK could see some rain at times. Temperatures may well pick up a little above normal too. The main risk is that the low pressure systems track a little further north, bringing a continuation of the unsettled weather from earlier in September.

A slight change in pattern looks likely after mid-month, with high pressure to the south and east of us and low pressure to the north-west. This is fairly similar to the typical pattern we see for the UK, although there are signs that high pressure will be more of a feature than low pressure. The upshot of this is that the weather should be drier than normal for most areas, and there is a chance of some warmer weather developing too. The main alternative to our expected weather pattern is for low pressure to remain more of an influence i.e. windier and wetter weather for the UK with temperatures around average. This alternative has a roughly 25% chance of occurring.

Further ahead

Are there any signs that the warmth we expect to develop after the middle of September will persist towards the end of the month?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Offline Gavin D  
#742 Posted : 25 August 2019 11:11:10(UTC)
Gavin D

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Friday 30 Aug - Sunday 8 Sep

It will become more unsettled on Friday, especially in the north. Occasionally heavy rain or showers will be likely here, with the risk of strong winds and it will feel rather cool for the time of year. The south may remain dry, especially in the southeast where temperatures will be above the seasonal average. Over the weekend, and into the start of September, it will probably be fairly unsettled nationwide. The heavier rain will be most likely in the northwest, with southeastern parts receiving the longest dry and sunny spells. However, there will be a risk of thundery showers breaking out across the southeast at times. Temperatures will vary around normal, with a possibility of further warm spells.

Monday 9 Sep - Monday 23 Sep

There are signals that changes in the weather patterns across the UK will become slow during this spell. At present it is considered that the predominate weather type will be unsettled conditions, leading to an increase in the chance for above average rainfall through September. However, more settled conditions are likely at times, especially around the middle of September, with temperatures likely to be near to or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#743 Posted : 26 August 2019 10:23:23(UTC)
Gavin D

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Saturday 31 Aug - Monday 9 Sep

It will be unsettled this weekend. On Saturday, rain will gradually clear the southeast through the day, with sunshine and showers for much of the country. The showers will be heaviest in the north and west, with the risk of hail and thunder. Gales will be possible in the far northwest and it will feel cool for the time of year. The south will become drier on Monday but for the start of September, it will probably be fairly unsettled nationwide. The heavier rain will be most likely in the northwest, with southern parts receiving the longest dry and sunny spells. However, there will be a risk of thundery showers breaking out across the southeast at times. Temperatures will generally be on the cool side, especially in the north.

Tuesday 10 Sep - Tuesday 24 Sep

There are signals that changes in the weather patterns across the UK will become slow during this spell. At present it is considered that the predominate weather type will be unsettled conditions, leading to an increase in the chance for above average rainfall through September. However, more settled conditions are likely at times, especially around the middle of September, with temperatures likely to be near to or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#744 Posted : 27 August 2019 12:31:43(UTC)
Gavin D

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Sunday 1 Sep - Tuesday 10 Sep

Changeable and, at times, unsettled weather is expected during the start of September. The first week of meteorological autumn should see rainy spells clearing to a mixture of sunshine and showers. Showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with the best of any dry weather across southern and southwestern areas. It will be windy at times, especially across the north. Temperatures are expected to be rather cool for the time of year, with some chilly nights in sheltered spots in the north. As we head through the latter part of the period signals are mixed, but we are most likely to see weather patterns become slow to evolve giving unsettled spells interspersed with briefer settled interludes, with temperatures likely staying on the cool side.

Wednesday 11 Sep - Wednesday 25 Sep

There are mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will become slowly evolving during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with briefer periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains quite a degree of uncertainty in the forecast into late September. After a cool start, temperatures are expected to recover pretty close to average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a little higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#745 Posted : 28 August 2019 10:34:17(UTC)
Gavin D

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Posts: 8,245
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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

September brings sporadic high-pressure

_________________________________

Wednesday 28 August – Sunday 1 September

A return to more seasonal weather

Wednesday will be a cooler day for all areas, with west-to south-westerly winds blowing from the Atlantic delivering cooler air. However, it will still be warm in the south-east, which should see a good deal of dry and bright weather in the afternoon. Cooler elsewhere, with some patchy rain affecting Wales, Scotland and northern England. In general, most areas should become drier with some clear spells overnight, although it will become breezier in north-western areas with a front bringing further outbreaks of rain to Scotland during the day on Thursday. Meanwhile, expect a dry day with sunny spells elsewhere; rather warm in the east but cloudier with a few spots of rain edging into western areas.

Friday will be rather breezy, particularly the further north and west you go, with a front continuing to bring a lot of cloud and further outbreaks of rain to northern Britain. Meanwhile, there should be a good deal of dry, bright and warm weather across south-eastern areas. Increasingly persistent rain will edge into Scotland and Northern Ireland overnight, and the associated area of low pressure will bring heavy rain and brisk winds here on Saturday. Further rain looks to edge into Wales and western England too, although the far south and south-east should remain dry and warm with rather hazy sunshine. As the first day of Meteorological Autumn, Sunday will certainly be a shock to the system, with temperatures falling below average for most under a keen north-westerly breeze, which will bring frequent heavy and thundery showers.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 8 September

A chilly start but warming up later

Monday will perhaps be even cooler than Sunday, with a west to north-westerly flow continuing for many areas, bringing further showers also. These could bring a few rumbles of thunder in the afternoon, even though temperatures may struggle to climb out of the mid-teens Celsius for many areas. The showers should tend to become less frequent later in the day and may fade entirely overnight. Confidence lowers somewhat from Tuesday to Thursday, when high pressure is expected to build back across the UK from the south-west.

As a result, lower pressure is likely to lift north of the country, allowing a more widespread return to drier and calmer weather by the second half of the week. However, it is the timing of the transition which is rather uncertain, and there could be an extended period of more unsettled conditions for a time. By the end of the week though, there is reasonable agreement that a more extensive high pressure area will extend across the country from the south-west, and although the week will start on a chilly note, it is likely to end on a warmer one.

Monday 9 September – Sunday 22 September

High pressure waxing and waning

The second week of September looks to start where the first week left off. High pressure could remain fairly close to the UK for a time, maintaining a few days of rather calm and settled weather, with temperatures rising above average for most places. The warmest weather looks likely across central, southern and south-western Britain, as winds should be lightest here. Occasional breezier and damp conditions may edge into Scotland at times. Confidence is lower as we head towards the middle of the month due to a lack of agreement between the computer models, although occasional wetter and windier bursts of weather look more likely to extend further south across the country.

These could bring a few cooler days with gusty winds and a risk of more widespread showers too. Scotland and north-east England would be most favoured to see any persistent rain. However, such conditions would only be temporary, as high pressure and more settled weather is never likely to remain too far away to the south-west. This should break-up any unsettled conditions with brief periods of dry and fine weather. In general, temperatures look to be around normal, although parts of England and Wales should experience the lion's share of any warmer days. Beyond mid-month, we anticipate high pressure to become more extensive across the UK and surrounding areas once again. This should provide a more extended period of largely dry and settled weather, with the early Autumn sunshine and light winds allowing temperatures to climb above average for all. However, the far north and north-east could occasionally be brushed by the odd weak front moving down from the north-west. Occasional spots of rain are possible here, although it looks to remain largely dry elsewhere.

Further ahead

Will high pressure remain close-by as we go through September?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Offline Gavin D  
#746 Posted : 28 August 2019 11:04:05(UTC)
Gavin D

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Posts: 8,245
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Monday 2 Sep - Wednesday 11 Sep

Changeable and, at times, unsettled weather is expected during the start of September. The first week of meteorological autumn should see rainy spells clearing to a mixture of sunshine and showers. Showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with the best of any dry weather across southern and southwestern areas. It will be windy at times, especially across the north. Temperatures are expected to be rather cool for the time of year, with some chilly nights in sheltered spots in the north. As we head through the latter part of the period signals are mixed, but we are most likely to see weather patterns become slow to evolve giving unsettled spells interspersed with briefer settled interludes, with temperatures likely staying on the cool side.

Thursday 12 Sep - Thursday 26 Sep

There are mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will become slowly evolving during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with briefer periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains quite a degree of uncertainty in the forecast into late September. After a cool start, temperatures are expected to recover pretty close to average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a little higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#747 Posted : 29 August 2019 11:53:06(UTC)
Gavin D

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Tuesday 3 Sep - Thursday 12 Sep

Changeable and, at times, unsettled weather is expected during the start of September. The first week of meteorological autumn will see spells of rain interspersed with a mixture of sunshine and showers. Most of the rain will be in the northwest, with some reasonable drier and brighter spells across southern parts. It will be windy at times, especially across the north. Temperatures are expected to be rather cool for the time of year, with some chilly nights and early mornings. As we head through the latter part of the period signals are mixed, but we are most likely to see weather patterns become slow to evolve giving changeable spells interspersed with brief settled interludes, with temperatures likely varying around normal or somewhat below.

Friday 13 Sep - Friday 27 Sep

There are mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. After a cool start, temperatures are expected to recover close to average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

User is suspended until 24/10/2019 21:28:32(UTC) Solar Cycles  
#748 Posted : 29 August 2019 14:24:14(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Location: Blackburn Lancs

Overall not quite the usual September fayre we’ve grown accustomed/spoilt to over the years but nothing to untoward either, a chance of something warmer from mid month onwards but average to slightly below at times for the next week to ten days.

Offline Gavin D  
#749 Posted : 30 August 2019 10:30:59(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
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John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Cool start to September
  • Eyes on ‘Dorian’
  • Surprises later in the month?

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/30/john-hammond-month-ahead-taste-early-autumn/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Offline Gavin D  
#750 Posted : 30 August 2019 10:39:00(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
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Met office CPF update

August update

September to November

Temperature summary

For September and September-October-November as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for September-October-November will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 60% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-son-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For September, the chances of wetter- and drier-than-average conditions are similar. For September-October-November as a whole, aboveaverage precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for September-October-November will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-son-v1.pdf

Offline Gavin D  
#751 Posted : 30 August 2019 12:02:35(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
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Wednesday 4 Sep - Friday 13 Sep

Through the second half of next week, cool and showery west or north-westerly flow is likely. However, there is likely to be a reasonable amount of dry and bright weather, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the wettest conditions likely to be in the northwest. It will often be rather windy, especially in the north, with the risk of gales at times. Wet and windy conditions may develop more widely for a time. Through next weekend, drier, quieter conditions may extend slowly southeast across the UK. For the following week, things are very uncertain. However, there will probably be spells of changeable, windy weather, especially for the north. More settled conditions in the south may develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely varying around normal or somewhat below.

Saturday 14 Sep - Saturday 28 Sep

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#752 Posted : 31 August 2019 10:12:10(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often most unsettled in the north and west

_________________________________

Saturday 31 August – Sunday 8 September

Rather unsettled and cool and times

On Saturday, an active front will bring heavy rain to western Scotland in the morning, with further rain for much of England and Wales through the day, while the far south-east will see some dry, bright and warm weather for a time. A chilly night will follow, with frequent showers for western Scotland and Northern Ireland, and lengthy clear periods elsewhere. Sunday will be a cool day for all, with frequent showers and thunderstorms developing across north-western areas, while the south will be driest and sunniest. Many areas will be dry on Sunday night, although it will be particularly chilly as temperatures fall away under lengthy clear spells.

For much of next week, high pressure will remain to the south or south-west of the UK. On Monday, a front will bring further cloud and rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland, while the rest of the country will be dry with lighter winds and sunny spells. A warmer day in the south and south-east on Tuesday, where there will be a good deal of dry and bright weather, while it will remain wetter and cloudier in the west and north. A band of patchy rain will slide south-east overnight, leaving Wednesday as a cooler day with sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, perhaps bringing a few rumbles of thunder. Thursday looks to be particularly chilly, with further heavy showers moving in on a north-westerly flow.

By Friday and next weekend, it looks more likely that an area of low pressure will impact the country. This will bring cooler, cloudier weather with a risk of rain for many areas on Friday and Saturday, although Sunday may see more widespread dry and calm weather.

Monday 9 September – Sunday 15 September

A few chilly days, but high pressure close-by

The following week may start off with high pressure lingering close to the UK, bringing a calm, largely dry and settled start to the week, perhaps with some overnight mist and fog. However, this isn't likely to last - with high pressure most often lingering to the west or south-west of the UK. As a result, northern and north-western Britain are most likely to see occasional north-westerly bursts of cooler air bringing some showers from the Atlantic, and could occasionally catch the odd frontal system, bringing more general cloud and outbreaks of rain.

Elsewhere, lengthier periods of dry and fine weather seem more likely, although they could occasionally be broken up by cloud and spots of rain approaching from the north-west. These sporadic bursts of cooler air are likely to keep temperatures slightly below normal across the north and north-east, and it will feel particularly chilly here in areas exposed to the showers and breeze.

Monday 16 September – Sunday 29 September

Pressure slowly rising across the country

It looks like high pressure will gradually become more extensive across the country from the south-west after mid-month, although this will be a rather slow process. During the third week of September, low pressure areas are perhaps more likely to impact Scandinavia than the UK, although they could occasionally extend their influence westwards towards our shores. While confidence is rather low on the exact timing and extent of these episodes, they could bring some cooler, cloudier and wetter weather at times, with blustery showers or outbreaks of rain perhaps more likely to impact northern and eastern areas. However, the proximity of higher pressure means some lengthy drier, sunnier and warmer interludes, with these perhaps becoming more frequent later in the week.

By the final week of September, it looks like high pressure will have a lengthier stay across the UK, and this should encourage more widespread dry, warm and fine conditions to develop as breezes more frequently come from the south-west. Areas of low pressure could quickly move east across the Atlantic, mainly close to Iceland, although some rather wet and breezy weather could linger across northern and north-western Britain. However, much of the country should still experience a dry and rather warm end to the month. Forecasting the British weather at this time of the year is made especially tricky by the development of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic, and there is about a 40% chance that we will see a wetter, windier and cooler pattern lingering across the UK by the end of September.

Further ahead

Will the end of September remain as a reliable source of fine, warm and settled weather?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Offline Gavin D  
#753 Posted : 31 August 2019 11:50:06(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
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Thursday 5 Sep - Saturday 14 Sep

Through the second half of next week, a cool and showery north-westerly flow is likely. However, there is likely to be a reasonable amount of dry and bright weather around, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the wettest conditions likely to be in the northwest. It will often be rather windy, especially in the north, with the risk of gales at times. Through next weekend, drier, quieter conditions may extend slowly southeast across the UK. For the following week, things are very uncertain. However, there will probably be spells of changeable, windy weather, especially for the north. More settled conditions in the south may develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely varying around normal or somewhat below.

Sunday 15 Sep - Sunday 29 Sep

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#754 Posted : 01 September 2019 12:26:39(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
Man
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Friday 6 Sep - Sunday 15 Sep

The weekend will stay unsettled and probably windy at first, with showers or longer spells of rain, probably soon transferring from the northwest to eastern parts of the UK. Drier, brighter and quieter conditions will probably become established in the west and northwest of the UK and slowly extend to other areas over the course of the weekend. It will most likely be rather cool with some chilly nights in any quieter interludes. Into next week, confidence quickly becomes low. However, it will probably start changeable and sometimes windy, particularly in the north. Some drier, brighter and quieter spells may develop across the UK as we go towards the middle part of the month. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal or somewhat below.

Monday 16 Sep - Monday 30 Sep

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Offline Gavin D  
#755 Posted : 03 September 2019 12:01:01(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
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Sunday 8 Sep - Tuesday 17 Sep

It should be a chilly and bright start to Sunday for many and remaining largely dry too. Cloud builds through the afternoon but there should still be some bright or sunny spells. Perhaps breezy with light rain in the far northwest. Next week will probably be rather changeable with spells of rain. Some drier, brighter and quieter interludes expected too, these most frequent in the south. Windy at times, especially for the middle of next week nationwide and more generally through the course of the week in the north. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal or somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal with some chilly nights possible. Towards the end of the week though, there are signs that it may turn a little warmer by day.

Wednesday 18 Sep - Wednesday 2 Oct

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#756 Posted : 04 September 2019 11:54:54(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
Man
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Monday 9 Sep - Wednesday 18 Sep

A dry and bright start to the day in the southeast on Monday but turning wet and windy later. Morning cloud and rain in the northwest clears to sunny spells to end the day. The rest of next week will probably be rather changeable with spells of rain. Some drier, brighter and quieter interludes expected too, these most frequent in the south. Windy at times, especially for the middle of next week nationwide and more generally through the course of the week in the north. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal or somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal with some chilly nights possible. Towards the end of the week though, there are signs that it may turn a little warmer by day.

Thursday 19 Sep - Thursday 3 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However it will probably start unsettled and sometimes windy, particularly in the northwest. Probably staying changeable as we go through the rest of September and head into the start of October, so still some wind and rain at times, but with some drier interludes too. As is typical for this time of year, the driest and brightest weather is most likely in the south, whilst the north or northwest will generally be more unsettled. Temperatures will most likely remain near to below average, with the coldest conditions across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#757 Posted : 05 September 2019 08:15:01(UTC)
Gavin D

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Posts: 8,245
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Met office 10 day trend

Next 10 days

Cool
Changeable 

 

Offline Gavin D  
#758 Posted : 05 September 2019 11:26:48(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
Man
United Kingdom

Tuesday 10 Sep - Thursday 19 Sep

Although a few showers may affect the far southeast during Tuesday, most areas will stay, dry with some sunshine for a time. Outbreaks of rain will move into northwestern areas through the afternoon and it will become windy, with a chance of coastal gales later. The remainder of the week is likely to stay rather changeable. There will be periods of rain, interspersed with occasional drier and brighter interludes, these most prolonged in the south. It will often be windy, especially in the north, where there is a risk of gales at times. Temperatures are likely to range from around normal to somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal, especially during the mornings as some chilly nights are likely. Southern areas may see above average temperatures at times though.

Friday 20 Sep - Friday 4 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However, it will probably start unsettled and sometimes windy, particularly in the northwest. It will probably stay changeable as we go through the rest of September and head into the start of October, still with some wind and rain at times, but with some drier interludes too. As is typical for this time of year, the driest and brightest weather is most likely in the south, whilst the north or northwest will generally be more unsettled. Temperatures will most likely remain near to below average, with the coldest conditions across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#759 Posted : 06 September 2019 14:15:17(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
Man
United Kingdom

Wednesday 11 Sep - Friday 20 Sep

Cloud and rain clear southeastwards during Wednesday with sunny spells and showers following. Winds will ease in the south through the day, but remaining windy in the north with a risk of local gales. The weather through the remainder of the week and the rest of the period is likely to stay rather changeable. There will be periods of rain, interspersed with occasional drier and brighter interludes, these most prolonged in the south. It will often be windy, especially in the north, where there will be gales at times. Temperatures are likely to range from around normal to somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal, especially during the mornings as some chilly nights are likely. Southern areas may see above average temperatures at times.

Saturday 21 Sep - Saturday 5 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However, it will probably start unsettled and sometimes windy, particularly in the northwest, with the best of any drier and brighter interludes in the south and southeast. As we go through the rest of September and head into the start of October it could still be changeable with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, especially in the far northwest, but we could see some spells of drier and warmer weather at times elsewhere. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#760 Posted : 06 September 2019 14:16:24(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 8,245
Man
United Kingdom

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Ex-‘Dorian’ brushes by
  • Warmer spell after mid-month
  • Cooling after the Equinox

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/09/06/john-hammond-month-ahead-feeling-ripples-dorian/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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