The brilliant John Hammond has updated his month ahead forecast and has all but written off any hopes of a really good summer and for the first month is predicting a very changeable and quite unsettled June.
Doesn't surprise me in the least.

I'd be interested to know if anyone can recollect what John Hammond's thoughts were this time last year wrt the 2018 summer.

Also, I could be wrong here, but last December didn't he predict that we would have a generally much colder second half of the winter just gone? I wonder what happened to that.

 

I'd be interested to know if anyone can recollect what John Hammond's thoughts were this time last year wrt the 2018 summer.

Also, I could be wrong here, but last December didn't he predict that we would have a generally much colder second half of the winter just gone? I wonder what happened to that.

He was pretty much spot on throughout the summer.

True, but his thoughts from last December about the weather about what he thought would happen in the second half of the winter weren't as accurate.

The brilliant John Hammond has updated his month ahead forecast and has all but written off any hopes of a really good summer and for the first month is predicting a very changeable and quite unsettled June.
Doesn't surprise me in the least.

 No he has not written off summer. This is what he says

And why should there be? After last year’s ‘freak’ weather, we forget that such conditions are, by definition, unusual. More typically at this time of year, warm sunshine is periodically interrupted as the jet stream delivers occasional cooler and wetter spells from the Atlantic. A healthy blend to swell the early summer fruit.

Northwestern areas of the UK are most likely to feel the brunt of such wet weather systems, whereas the southeast will probably be drier and sunnier.

 He is saying a more typical June and who knows what July and August will bring

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable for the rest of May, but fine by June

_________________________________

Saturday 18 May – Sunday 26 May

A mixed bag for mid-May

Saturday will be rather wet and cloudy across Scotland, with outbreaks of rain pushing in from the east. This will keep it rather cool and dull, although England and Wales will see sunny spells and scattered showers develop, some of which will be heavy with the odd rumble of thunder possible. These will slowly ease overnight, leaving clear periods and a few mist or fog patches, although Scotland will continue to see some patchy rain. For many areas, Sunday will be the better day of the weekend, with more widespread sunny spells and temperatures a little higher than on Saturday. The sunshine will trigger some slow moving hit-and-miss showers through the afternoon, although many areas will also remain dry.

Next week will continue where the weekend left off, with light winds, sunny periods and some fair-weather cloud for many on Monday, but a few showers are also likely, some of which could again be heavy. More general rain may edge across Scotland from the east on Monday night and Tuesday, while the rest of the country will continue to see bright or sunny spells with just a few showers. Confidence is unusually low for the middle of next week, although it looks most likely that high pressure will build across the UK from the south or south-west. This will bring a lot of dry and calm weather, and it could become rather warm in the south, with any breezier and wetter weather limited to Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, there is around a 40% risk that low pressure becomes more widespread across the country from the west, bringing wetter and breezier weather for all. Either way, by next weekend, we should see a return to more widespread wet and breezy conditions nationwide.

Monday 27 May – Sunday 2 June

High pressure often to the south-west

Towards the end of May, it looks like high pressure will most often be centred to the west or south-west of the British Isles. This will allow occasional bands of rain and fronts to move south-east across the country, as areas of low pressure track east between Iceland and northern Scotland. All areas are likely to see some rain at times, although the driest and calmest weather is likely in southern and western Britain, where high pressure will most frequently ridge up from the south-west. This could also promote some rather warm weather to develop for a few days across southern Britain - although the warmth will likely be short-lived, as further fronts and Atlantic winds from the west or north-west bring cooler and wetter spells.

There are some indications that high pressure will begin to extend its influence north across Britain by early June, which should allow more widespread dry and calm conditions to develop (and prevent low-pressure areas bringing more widespread rain and winds). However, some uncertainty on the extent of low pressure across the country creeps into the forecast by this stage. This is most likely a consequence of intense thunderstorm activity which is expected across the central USA over the next few days. These thunderstorms can often generate large perturbations in the jet stream, the fast-flowing ribbon of air about 6- miles up in the atmosphere. These can often travel thousands of miles across the Atlantic towards Europe, and can be rather tricky for the computer models to accurately predict.

Monday 3 June – Sunday 16 June

Strong signals for intensifying high pressure

As high pressure continues to build across the UK during early June, there should be a lot of dry and calm weather to start the month, and temperatures should rise above normal for the time of year as warmer southerly or south-westerly airflows develop. In fact, southern parts of the country could see a couple of very warm days. It does look like the first half of June will continue this rather settled theme, with low pressure areas passing well to the north of the British Isles, and high pressure slowly shifting north towards northern Europe and Scandinavia. Many areas will be drier than normal; dry conditions may become widespread across Scotland and Northern Ireland, which are expected to remain closest to the high pressure centre.

It will be warmer than normal for all areas, although at present, it seems like heatwave conditions may struggle to develop. An area of lower pressure looks to develop to the south-west of Britain as we advance further into June. This could allow one or two heavy showers or thunderstorms to break out across southern areas at times, but these won't provide any meaningful rain for the gardens and fields which will no doubt be parched dry by this stage. Indeed, the main uncertainty is with regards to how far north this low pressure ends up; there is around a 30% chance that the low develops closer to southern Britain, bringing breezier and wetter weather to the south.

Further ahead

Will high pressure break to give a much-needed spell of rain to the UK, or will the expected fine start to summer continue?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC really going for a good start to summer different to others.

Friday 24 May - Sunday 2 June

Friday is likely to be a showery day with variable but often large amounts of cloud. Any sunny spells may trigger heavy showers with a risk of thunder and showers may merge to give longer spells of rain across the north and the far south. Temperatures should be near to normal. This changeable weather is expected to continue into the Bank Holiday weekend with strong winds and spells of rain likely, at first, before clearing to a mixture of sunshine and showers. Showers may become heavy and thundery across southern areas with temperatures generally near to or slightly below average. The rest of the period remains rather uncertain, although the weather is expected to become largely settled interrupted by spells of changeable weather.

Monday 3 June - Monday 17 June

Confidence in the forecast is low for the first half of June, but the most likely scenario is for a slowly evolving weather pattern to become established, with Atlantic weather systems struggling to make eastwards progress across the UK. Overall, settled weather is most likely across northern parts of the UK, but these settled spells will extend to all areas at times. These periods of drier and settled weather will occasionally be punctuated by cooler, showery spells as Atlantic weather systems arrive from the west, albeit temporarily. Temperatures are likely to trend mostly close to normal as we move through June.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK weather: Brits to bake in one of 'hottest summer's ever' starting with 30C June

The Met Office has predicted there are likely to be "above average temperatures" from June to August

Britain is set to bask in its hottest summer ever as forecasters predict a three months of sizzling temperatures. By mid-June it is expected the mercury will have soared to 30C - making way for similar highs that we saw last year. The hottest day was in July when temperatures reached 35.3C in Faversham, Kent. The Met Office has predicted there are likely to be "above average temperatures" from June to August, raising hopes that we could see another scorching summer.

Highs of 30C next month amid tropical air were forecast by ex-BBC and Met Office forecaster John Hammond of weathertrending and The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-brits-bake-one-16168713?_ga=2.247569924.2035330500.1558337646-1108786294.1558337646

UK weather: Brits to bake in one of 'hottest summer's ever' starting with 30C June

The Met Office has predicted there are likely to be "above average temperatures" from June to August

Britain is set to bask in its hottest summer ever as forecasters predict a three months of sizzling temperatures. By mid-June it is expected the mercury will have soared to 30C - making way for similar highs that we saw last year. The hottest day was in July when temperatures reached 35.3C in Faversham, Kent. The Met Office has predicted there are likely to be "above average temperatures" from June to August, raising hopes that we could see another scorching summer.

Highs of 30C next month amid tropical air were forecast by ex-BBC and Met Office forecaster John Hammond of weathertrending and The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-brits-bake-one-16168713?_ga=2.247569924.2035330500.1558337646-1108786294.1558337646

I'm surprised the MetO are making a prediction like this at this time tbh. Have they forgotten what happened in 2009 when they predicted similar weather for that summer?

I'm surprised the MetO are making a prediction like this at this time tbh. Have they forgotten what happened in 2009 when they predicted similar weather for that summer?

Note the Mirror article also says, John Hammond and Brian Gaze are forecasting a good summer!  Are you Brian?  

UK weather: Brits to bake in one of 'hottest summer's ever' starting with 30C June

The Met Office has predicted there are likely to be "above average temperatures" from June to August

Britain is set to bask in its hottest summer ever as forecasters predict a three months of sizzling temperatures. By mid-June it is expected the mercury will have soared to 30C - making way for similar highs that we saw last year. The hottest day was in July when temperatures reached 35.3C in Faversham, Kent. The Met Office has predicted there are likely to be "above average temperatures" from June to August, raising hopes that we could see another scorching summer.

Highs of 30C next month amid tropical air were forecast by ex-BBC and Met Office forecaster John Hammond of weathertrending and The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-brits-bake-one-16168713?_ga=2.247569924.2035330500.1558337646-1108786294.1558337646

This article seems to be based on the MetO Contingency Planners Forecast for May-July issued at the end of April

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-mjj-v1.pdf

A 45-50% chance of the MJJ UK Average Mean Temp being in the top 20% of MJJ's in the 1981-2010 average is predicted and only a 5% chance of MJJ being in the coolest 20% of 1981-2010 MJJ's

However, in context about half the MJJ's between 2004 and 2018 have been in this category and in fact the prediction is for the average being well below that for 2018

The Mean UK MJJ prediction for 2019 on this forecast is about 13.3C compared to about 14.7C for 2018

Saturday 25 May - Monday 3 June

On Saturday, much of the UK may well start dry, until rain reaches western areas later in the day. Showers or perhaps longer spells of rain are likely on Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday in some areas, along with some stronger winds at times. However, most areas will see dry and fine weather for part of the weekend. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the time of year. The changeable and rather cool weather is likely to continue through the half term week. There will be showers or longer spells of rain at times, including the odd heavy or thundery shower. However, there will be some dry and bright spells too.

Tuesday 4 June - Tuesday 18 June

There are only weak weather signals for the first half of June so we can expect a mixture of dry settled periods and changeable spells. In general, drier and less windy weather is more likely across northern parts of the UK, though southern areas can expect some of these quieter spells too. These periods of drier and settled weather will be punctuated by cooler, showery spells as Atlantic weather systems arrive from the west. In the absence of any strong signals, temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

It’s just the Mirror’s interpretation of what the Met Office are saying David!  It sells newspapers!  Pinch of salt needed!  

Note the Mirror article also says, John Hammond and Brian Gaze are forecasting a good summer!  Are you Brian?  

Good point Caz. I'm sure the MetO have not forgotten their infamous prediction in 2009 and what really happened, so as you say it's very likely just the Mirror trying to sell papers, just as they all do.

As far as I know, Brian doesn't usually issue his seasonal forecasts until the last day or two of the preceding season, so I imagine his summer forecasr will probably appear towards the end of next week.

AccuWeather's summer forecast.

Sunday 26 May - Tuesday 4 June

Showers or perhaps longer spells of rain are likely on Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday in some areas, along with some stronger winds at times. However, most areas will see dry and fine weather for part of the weekend. Temperatures are likely to be near the seasonal average for many, but cool in any rain. It is most likely to be driest in the southeast, where it will be locally warm. The changeable and rather cool weather is likely to continue through the half term week. There will be showers or longer spells of rain at times, including the odd heavy or thundery shower. It will be windy in the south, especially at first, with some heavy rain possible. However, there will be some dry and bright spells too.

Wednesday 5 June - Wednesday 19 June

There are only weak weather signals for the first half of June, so we can expect a mixture of dry settled periods and changeable spells. In general, drier and less windy weather is more likely across northern parts of the UK, though southern areas can expect some of these quieter spells too. These periods of drier and settled weather will be punctuated by cooler, showery spells as Atlantic weather systems arrive from the west. In the absence of any strong signals, temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Monday 27 May - Wednesday 5 June

Showers or perhaps longer spells of rain are likely on Bank Holiday Monday in some areas, along with blustery winds at times. The rain is more likely in the north, but still there is a chance of the odd shower in the south, amongst some sunny spells. Temperatures are likely to be near the seasonal average for many, but cool in any rain. It is most likely to be driest in the southeast, where it will be warm in some places. The changeable and rather cool weather is likely to continue through the following week. There will be showers or longer spells of rain at times, including the odd heavy or thundery shower. However, there will be some dry and bright spells too.

Thursday 6 June - Thursday 20 June

It is too early to give much detail for this period, but the first half of June is likely to be a mixture of dry settled periods and changeable spells. In general, drier and less windy weather is more likely across northern parts of the UK, though southern areas can expect some of these quieter spells too. These periods of drier and settled weather will be mixed in with cooler, showery spells as Atlantic weather systems arrive from the west. Temperatures are forecast to be close to the average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Six-week SCORCH forecast to begin as tropical plume roasts UK

A SIX-WEEK scorching heatwave is forecast to begin with temperatures set to skyrocket due to tropical blasts.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/780301/uk-weather-forecast-tropical-plume-hot-temperatures?fbclid=IwAR10kBkSAK8RIrbKNhVmBrF0jKMmf2s59is8QQoHvQfG1KoucFlHwZ0uDD0

Tuesday 28 May - Thursday 6 June

Tuesday will see sunny spells and showers for many areas, the showers initially in the north and east, then developing widely through the day. Some showers will be heavy with thunder possible, merging into longer spells of rain in places. The showers then easing from the north later. It will be breezy with a risk of coastal gales in the southwest and northeast. Temperatures will be cooler than average and feeling colder in the breeze. The changeable and rather cool weather is likely to continue through the following week. There will be showers or longer spells of rain at times, including the odd heavy or thundery shower. However, there will be some dry and bright spells too.

Friday 7 June - Friday 21 June

The general trend for this period is currently for a more settled picture across the UK. However, there remains the potential for further areas of low pressure to bring spells of rain or showers at times with some stronger winds. Confidence is low by mid June but the most likely scenario is that overall more settled weather is likely to prevail. Temperatures will start a little below normal, slowly trending to normal of warm.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast