Sunday 5 May - Tuesday 14 May

For the rest of the Bank Holiday weekend a pattern of generally dry weather is likely to develop, with a fair amount of sunshine across most parts. However, far western areas may eventually see some more changeable and windier conditions by Monday. After cold starts for many, daytime temperatures are more likely to become warmer again through the weekend, particularly in the sunshine and light winds. Nights will be fairly cold, with patchy frosts likely in prone areas. How long the settled weather continues is uncertain but it looks as if some changeable spells are likely into the following week, although confidence is very low. Temperatures will probably vary around normal for the time of year.

Wednesday 15 May - Wednesday 29 May

There is low confidence in developments for this period. There is a chance of some changeable conditions at first, but by the middle of the month there are indications that more settled weather may begin to dominate. This should bring periods of light winds and fine and dry weather, but with a risk of occasional interludes of cooler, wet and breezy weather. Temperatures will be near to the seasonal average but, as is usual for this time in Spring, we can expect some marked day to day regional variations. The highest temperatures are most likely in the south and southeast, with the north and northwest probably seeing some cooler spells at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Wednesday 15 May - Wednesday 29 May

There is low confidence in developments for this period. There is a chance of some changeable conditions at first, but by the middle of the month there are indications that more settled weather may begin to dominate. 

Um... doesn't that period START in the "middle of the month"?

Monday 6 May - Wednesday 15 May

After a cold start with a widespread frost, Bank Holiday Monday is likely to be dry for most places with sunny spells, although the odd shower is possible. There is a small chance that far western and northern areas may see more changeable and windier conditions. During the day it will be rather cold for many, although it should feel pleasant in the sunshine in any sheltered spots. Thereafter, a change to more unsettled conditions is likely, perhaps bringing spells of wet and windy weather across southern and central areas at times. Brighter conditions could hold on in the far north, but there is still some uncertainty for now. Temperatures will probably vary around normal for the time of year.

Thursday 16 May - Thursday 30 May

There is low confidence in developments for this period. There is a chance of some changeable conditions at first, but by the middle of the month there are indications that more settled weather could start to develop. This should bring periods of light winds and fine and dry weather, but with occasional interludes of cooler, wet and breezy weather. Temperatures will be near to the seasonal average but, as is usual for this time in Spring, we can expect some marked day to day regional variations.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cold shock in early May, but pressure building

_________________________________

Wednesday 1 May—Sunday 5 May

Turning much colder this weekend

An old front will bring outbreaks of rain to much of western and central Britain on Wednesday, with Northern Ireland and the far west of Great Britain experiencing the best of the sunshine. Outbreaks of rain are expected to linger across northern and eastern Britain overnight, while a strong cold front will bring further spells of rain to Scotland and northern England on Thursday. Meanwhile, heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out across Wales, southern and central England. It looks like rain will linger across northern and north-eastern areas overnight, while the showers fade in the south and an increasingly cold airmass brings wintry showers to the far north of Scotland later in the night.

Through Friday, a very cold airmass will dig south across the country behind a cold front, which will bring rain and drizzle to central Britain. Any sunshine across southern England could encourage a few showers to develop, while further wintry showers will continue across northern Scotland and the Northern Isles, where snow is expected to fall down to low levels. Cold in the north on Friday night, with sleet and snow showers edging south towards North Sea coasts of England.  Saturday will be a cold and raw-feeling day for much of central and eastern Britain, particularly when exposed to the northerly wind. Further wintry showers are likely in the east, and these may move inland across southern and central England during the day. The west will be best, as it will be dry here with sunny spells. As high pressure slides south-east across the country on Sunday, it will remain dry with light winds for most, but a little on the chilly side. Cloudier with some patchy rain in northern Scotland though.

Monday 6 May—Sunday 12 May

Low pressure moving in from the west

Next week will start on a chilly note, with high pressure centred over southern Britain maintaining dry and calm weather for most. Temperatures will remain a little below average, while northern Britain - particularly Scotland - could continue to see rather damp and cloudy weather, as a front lingers across the region. Through the middle of the week, we must turn our attention back to the Atlantic, as an area of low pressure is expected to move steadily across the country from the west.

This will bring breezy and more widespread wet weather to many areas. There is some uncertainty over the northern extent of this unsettled weather, and there is a chance that Scotland could escape with largely dry but quite chilly conditions. By the end of the week, it looks like the low pressure influence will start to wane, with high pressure attempting to build in from the west or south-west once again. This should give some drier and calmer weather, with temperatures around or perhaps slightly warmer than normal in southern Britain by this stage.

Monday 13 May—Wednesday 26 June

Pressure slowly building through May

During the second full week of May, we expect a slow expansion of high pressure from the North Atlantic, across the UK and into Scandinavia with time. This will mark a major pattern transition in the weather, but also makes it a rather challenging week to predict the detail. The main risk of any rain will be across northern and eastern Britain early in the week, although building pressure across the country ought then to bring warmer and drier conditions to all areas. High pressure is likely to remain closest to Scotland, which is where the most widespread dry and calm conditions should persist. Occasional thundery showers could develop in the south.

With sea temperatures still rather cold and light winds, some low cloud and fog could linger around various coasts too, with the best of the sunshine likely further inland. By the final third of May, it seems that high pressure will become located to the east of the UK, which should allow warmer south or south-easterly winds to develop. It should be warm or very warm, and there is even the potential for it to become hot for a time. However, largely dry conditions will persist for many areas, with any rainfall only coming from sporadic heavy showers or thunderstorms during the afternoons.

Next Update

The middle of May is a rather tricky forecast period; we will see if there is more detail to be found through mid-month on Friday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 7 May - Thursday 16 May

Cloudy skies will tend to increase from the southwest through Tuesday, with some outbreaks of rain. The rain may turn heavy in the southwest, with the risk of gales mainly in the south and southwest. However, some northern areas will stay in a brighter but showery regime, with a risk of thunder in the far north. It will be widely cold by day, with overnight frosts. Thereafter, changeable conditions will continue to dominate, with outbreaks of rain and perhaps windier spells at times. However, there could be a shift towards more settled conditions from the middle of the month. Although it may start rather cold, a return to more normal temperatures for the time of year is probable.

Friday 17 May - Friday 31 May

There is low confidence in developments for this period. However, for the middle of May there are indications that more settled weather could start to develop. This should bring periods of light winds and fine and dry weather, but with occasional interludes of cooler, wet and breezy weather. Temperatures will be near to the seasonal average but, as is usual for this time in Spring, we can expect some marked day to day regional variations.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Cold then wet


• Drier and warmer late May


• Prolonged heat unlikely

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/05/03/john-hammond-month-ahead-whatever-next/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 8 May - Friday 17 May

A change to wet and windy weather is expected by Wednesday. Heavy rain is likely across much of the UK at times, except perhaps in northern Scotland. There will be a risk of gales, particularly on western coasts and hills. As rain moves northwards, heavy and perhaps thundery showers are likely to form in the south. The wet and windy weather will probably continue into Thursday, Friday and perhaps Saturday. Temperatures will start on the low side of average in the north, but will gradually rise across the UK so that after the start of Wednesday, night frosts are unlikely. There may well be a shift towards drier, brighter and less windy weather from next Sunday onwards, which would probably bring higher temperatures.

Saturday 18 May - Saturday 1 June

During the second half of May there are indications that dry and settled weather may prevail, though this is far from certain. This would bring long periods of light winds combined with fine and dry weather. However, we can expect occasional interludes of cooler, wetter and breezier weather. Temperatures are expected to be near to the seasonal average but, as is usual for this time in Spring, we can expect marked day to day regional variations.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cold wet start to May, but warming up later

_________________________________

Saturday 4 May—Sunday 12 May

Cold, breezy and wet next week

On Saturday many central and eastern areas will remain dry with good sunny spells, while it will feel particularly cold in the east, thanks to a keen northerly breeze and frequent showers, some of which will be wintry, perhaps bringing sleet and small hail at times. A cold night will follow, with a frost in places. On Sunday, the majority of Britain will remain dry with some sunshine, although it could become quite cloudy during the afternoon. Winds will be lighter for most, and so it won't feel as cold, although further wintry showers are likely for northern Scotland and the Northern Isles.
In stark contrast to Easter, Bank Holiday Monday will remain cold, with a weak front bringing some patchy rain to central portions of the country. In the south, the best of the sunshine will be during the morning, as it will become rather cloudy around the middle of the day.

Northern areas will see good sunny spells and patchy cloud throughout, although there is a threat of some heavy, wintry showers developing across Scotland during the daytime. Another cold night will follow, with a frost likely in the north where skies remain clearest. It will remain largely dry with variable cloud on Tuesday; still chilly though, with a few wintry showers perhaps edging into Scotland.  A significant change is expected from mid-week onwards, as a deep depression extends across the country from the south-west, powered by a more active Atlantic jet stream. There will be some persistent rain at times, and it looks to be rather windy in the south on Wednesday. It will remain chilly for all areas, particularly in Scotland. Only by the end of next week does it look like the low-pressure influence may start to wane from the south.

Monday 13 May—Sunday 19 May

A short unsettled spell after mid-month

Towards the middle of the month, it looks like high pressure will build across the UK from the south-west, forcing low pressure and rain-bearing fronts to remain well away from our shores. So, for a few days around mid-month, there should be a period of dry, calm and relatively settled weather, particularly across the southern half of the country where there could be a couple of rather mild or warm days.  This settled period of weather will soon be over, however, as it seems like a few days of slightly wetter and breezier weather will develop just after mid-month.

Weak areas of low pressure may move in from the Atlantic once again, and many regions can expect a few bands of frontal rain to move in from the west. The wettest conditions are likely over northern and western Britain, while parts of southern England could see largely dry conditions. However, confidence is especially low for this period, with a lack of a defining signal suggested by the weather models. There is a chance that high pressure remains stronger over the UK for longer, bringing calmer and warmer conditions on many more days.

Monday 20 May—Sunday 2 June

Pressure building and temperatures rising

Although the final third of May could begin with weak areas of low pressure remaining close to the UK, perhaps bringing some wet weather for a time, we anticipate high pressure to build across central and northern Europe, to the east of the UK. This gives an increased chance of some widespread and sustained warm weather developing, with winds potentially wafting up from the south-east. 
High pressure should remain close enough to maintain largely dry and calm conditions across most of the country, although fronts edging in from the west could stall over Ireland and western Britain, giving some more widespread rain and perhaps one or two windier days here. Otherwise, it seems that many areas can expect a good deal of fine and sunny weather, although it may become warm enough to trigger one or two afternoon heavy and thundery downpours for southern and central areas. However, these won't provide any meaningful rain in what looks to be a rather dry end to the month.

Next Update

We will take another look at the end of May and whether it could deliver a significant late-Spring hot spell.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 9 May - Saturday 18 May

Unsettled weather prevails on Thursday, with some sunny spells but also occasional heavy, possibly thundery showers, these merging to give some longer spells of rain, particularly in the north. Fresh to strong winds will make it feel rather cold for many too. This unsettled theme will probably continue through Friday, and perhaps into Saturday. Temperatures will start below average for many, but recover closer to normal by the weekend. From Sunday onwards it looks likely that more settled conditions will gradually become established, especially for eastern areas, and with temperatures improving with any sunshine. West and northwestern areas are at greatest risk of having further rain at times, but there will be some drier interludes here too.

Sunday 19 May - Sunday 2 June

During the second half of May there are indications that dry and settled weather may prevail, though this is far from certain. This would bring longer periods of light winds combined with fine and dry weather, particularly across eastern areas. However, we can expect occasional interludes of cooler, wetter and breezier weather, with these most likely in western, and particularly northwestern parts. Temperatures are expected to be near to the seasonal average, but we can expect some marked day to day regional variations. By the start of June confidence is very low, but slowly changing weather patterns are most probable, giving spells of widely settled weather punctuated by episodes of more unsettled conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 10 May - Sunday 19 May

The unsettled theme will probably continue on Friday, and perhaps into Saturday, with sunshine, showers and perhaps longer spells of rain which will be most likely across the south. The showers could be heavy at times, with the risk of hail and thunder. Temperatures will start below average for many, with overnight frost possible, but they will recover closer to normal by the end of the weekend. From Sunday onwards it looks likely that more settled conditions will gradually become established, especially for eastern areas, and with temperatures improving with any sunshine. West and northwestern areas are at greatest risk of having further rain and strong winds at times, but there will be some drier and more settled interludes here too.

Monday 20 May - Monday 3 June

During the start of this period there are indications that dry and settled weather may prevail, with high pressure to the east of the UK. This would bring longer periods of light winds combined with fine and dry weather, with temperatures near or above the seasonal average. This would be most likely across eastern areas, but we can expect occasional interludes of cooler, wetter and breezier weather, with these most likely in western and particularly northwestern parts. By the start of June confidence is very low, but slowly changing weather patterns are most probable, giving spells of widely settled weather punctuated by episodes of more unsettled conditions. Temperatures will mostly be around normal, but with an increasing likelihood of warm or very warm spells given the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 11 May - Monday 20 May

The start of the period will probably be unsettled, with cloud and rain clearing away from the southeast early on Saturday to leave a mixture of sunshine and scattered showers. Meanwhile, high pressure looks set to become established across the UK from Sunday and continuing to influence our weather into next week to bring plenty of fine, dry and settled conditions, with temperatures improving in the sunshine. However, there is the chance that some western and northwestern areas could see unsettled weather moving in from the Atlantic later in the period, with some spells of wet and windy weather. Temperatures on the whole are likely to be around the average for the time of year.

Tuesday 21 May - Tuesday 4 June

During the start of this period there are indications that dry and settled weather may prevail, with high pressure to the east of the UK. This would bring longer periods of light winds combined with fine and dry weather, with temperatures near or above the seasonal average. This would be most likely across eastern areas, but we can expect occasional interludes of cooler, wetter and breezier weather, with these most likely in western and particularly northwestern parts. By the start of June confidence is very low, but slowly changing weather patterns are most probable, giving spells of widely settled weather punctuated by episodes of more unsettled conditions. Temperatures will mostly be around normal, but with an increasing likelihood of warm or very warm spells given the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 12 May - Tuesday 21 May

Sunday will be largely dry with sunny spells, after a chilly start with a touch of rural frost. High pressure looks set to become established across the UK into next week, which will bring plenty of fine, dry and settled weather, with increasing amounts of sunshine. However, with clear skies overnight it will turn chilly with the risk of some widespread rural frosts. Meanwhile, frontal systems may try to push in from the Atlantic into the far north and northwest initially, then to other areas, with cloud, rain and stronger winds at times. Temperatures on the whole are likely to be around the average for time of year, but perhaps becoming warm or very warm for a time.

Wednesday 22 May - Wednesday 5 June

The unsettled conditions look set to continue during the first part of the period. Many southern areas most likely to see spells of rain and heavy showers, which will extend into northern areas at times, with stronger winds. Meanwhile, northern parts are more likely to see brighter, showery and cool conditions, away from any organised rain spreading from the south. Temperatures are likely to be on the cool side, especially in the rain. Confidence is very low as we go into early June, but a continuation of a similar pattern looks more probable, with spells of widely settled weather punctuated by spells of unsettled weather. Temperatures are likely to be around average, with increasing likelihood of warm or very warm spells in any settled weather given the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Moomins dire early summer forecast looks increasingly likely if these forecasts are to be believed ......

Please don't encourage him.

 

 

Please don't encourage him.

The forecast has taken a big turn for the worse, theres not a doubt about that, although it could just as easily turn back again. In other words, they haven't got a clue! Like all of us.

Monday 13 May - Wednesday 22 May

High pressure looks set to remain across the UK next week, which will bring plenty of fine, dry and settled weather, with increasing amounts of sunshine. However, with clear skies and light winds overnight it will turn quite chilly with the risk of some widespread rural frosts, also some isolated mist and fog patches are likely to form in places. Meanwhile, frontal systems may try to push in from the Atlantic into the far north and northwest initially, then to other areas, with cloud, rain and stronger winds at times. Temperatures on the whole are likely to be warmer than normal, with the chance of locally very warm conditions in the west and southwestern parts.

Thursday 23 May - Thursday 6 June

The unsettled conditions look set to continue during the first part of the period. Many southern areas most likely to see spells of rain and heavy showers, which will extend into northern areas at times, with stronger winds. Meanwhile, northern parts are more likely to see brighter, showery and cool conditions, away from any organised rain spreading from the south. Temperatures are likely to be on the cool side, especially in the rain. Confidence is very low as we go into early June, but a continuation of a similar pattern looks more probable, with spells of widely settled weather punctuated by spells of unsettled weather. Temperatures are likely to be around average, with increasing likelihood of warm or very warm spells in any settled weather given the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

^^^ They remain pretty bullish about a very unsettled end of May/start of June. Would be very surprised if they change this dramatically now they have nailed their colours to the mast. They are obviously seeing something of note to suggest this - perhaps the ECM ensembles?

^^^ They remain pretty bullish about a very unsettled end of May/start of June. Would be very surprised if they change this dramatically now they have nailed their colours to the mast. They are obviously seeing something of note to suggest this - perhaps the ECM ensembles?

They actually say "Confidence is very low as we go into early June".