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Offline tallyho_83  
#21 Posted : 27 January 2019 13:07:17(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,487
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post

If you say the models “flip flop” from each run what would you recommend professionals do? Try to work out a trend “smoothing out” the changes and looking at the consensus over a period time if there’s is one or switch back and forth each day to reflect model uncertainty? Damned if you do and ridiculed if you do not.

What are your thoughts on the Met Office outlooks that keep going for cold or very cold?

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Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline Brian Gaze  
#22 Posted : 27 January 2019 13:07:38(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

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Posts: 46,715

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

Its a great read and keeps us Coldies clinging on BUT even I find it odd@ Brian , give them a bell and ask what they are seeing 

 I should start paying them actually. Jan CET is 1.4C over and it's been nondescript and boring for most of the time. Despite that I'm approx 150,000 users up on Jan 2018.  

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline Gooner  
#23 Posted : 27 January 2019 13:11:00(UTC)
Gooner

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Man

We have to remember the Met are one of the most consulted weather organisations in the world and have access to all manner of data, they are clearly seeing something ………..…...we cant 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline doctormog  
#24 Posted : 27 January 2019 13:11:33(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 69,140

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

 

What are your thoughts on the Met Office outlooks that keep going for cold or very cold?

As I have said I’m not sure if the 16-30 day outlook will change but the 6-15 day outlook seems reasonable including the low probability of easterly/northeasterlies (i.e. a higher probability there will not be E/NElies).

One thing I do know is that they have more information and experience than I do.

Edited by user 27 January 2019 13:12:57(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline tallyho_83  
#25 Posted : 27 January 2019 13:16:03(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,487
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

We have to remember the Met are one of the most consulted weather organisations in the world and have access to all manner of data, they are clearly seeing something ………..…...we cant 

Yes they must be seeing something we are not in the models for them to continue to suggest cold or very cold weather more likely with a chance of easterly or north easterly winds - or maybe they are still assuming there will be a tropospheric response to the SSW and a blocking feature over Iceland and Greenland when in fact there is so far has been no HLB /northern blocking at all at least well into the first week of Feb and maybe the Met Office are still waiting for this to happen and are really confident that it shall happen. It's all so confusing indeed. If we do fail to get a block in Feb then this would be one major fail of not only the longer range models, but the Met Office as well as the failure in the SSW which not only reversed the zonal winds and spit the PV but failed to deliver anything cold and wintry. 

Meanwhile we have some heavy wet snow to look forward to on Tuesday afternoon and evening into Tuesday night if things turn out right.

Edited by user 27 January 2019 13:18:37(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline pdiddy  
#26 Posted : 27 January 2019 13:41:22(UTC)
pdiddy

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Location: Edinburgh, 93m ASL

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47006603

sorry if this was in the previous thread, but it does finish up by saying colder weather may be on the way...

 

Offline cultman1  
#27 Posted : 27 January 2019 14:03:29(UTC)
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Location: Fulham London SW6

The Met office still goes for the cold weather for February as it has been for weeks yet many of the models indicate a change to milder weather from the coming  weekend ? Surely they have the resources and the best expertise and furthermore have access to information others don’t?

Edited by user 27 January 2019 14:17:35(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline tallyho_83  
#28 Posted : 27 January 2019 14:18:50(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,487
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: cultman1 Go to Quoted Post
The Met office still goes for the cold weather for February as it has been for weeks yet many of the models indicate a change to milder weather from this weekend ? Surely they have the resources and the best expertise and furthermore have access to information others don’t?

That's what I was going to say because one of them would have to 'give way' - although i do remember the Met Office forecasting blizzards during last years feast from east in their longer range outlook and the models never forecast this until a few days prior and I thought the MET were telling porkies but they proved me wrong - (Storm Emma brought 6-7" of powdery dry snow on 1st March 18) and yes it was a blizzard at times! So Met Office got that totally correct.  

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Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline David M Porter  
#29 Posted : 27 January 2019 15:32:59(UTC)
David M Porter

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Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

Speaking for myself, I would have had more reason to be doubtful of the MetO's prediction of notable cold in Feb had their forecast from during/before the festive season of generally colder weather from the middle of January failed to materialise. I think that should be borne in mind by all of us before we begin to question their thoughts for further ahead.

As far as I can recall, they never at any time predicted there would be a major freeze in the early to middle part of the winter, although they did at one point before Christmas suggest there was an small chance of a change to colder weather happening before the turn of the year. While we are not in the middle of a big freeze, there is no doubt that the weather has generally been somewhat colder since the middle of January than it was for much of the time in December and the first half of this month. Furthermore, this coming week looks like being far from mild.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline Gary L  
#30 Posted : 27 January 2019 15:35:59(UTC)
Gary L

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Joined: 20/10/2010(UTC)
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Location: Diggle, Saddleworth (200m asl)

Originally Posted by: David M Porter Go to Quoted Post

Speaking for myself, I would have had more reason to be doubtful of the MetO's prediction of notable cold in Feb had their forecast from during/before the festive season of generally colder weather from the middle of January failed to materialise. I think that should be borne in mind by all of us before we begin to question their thoughts for further ahead.

As far as I can recall, they never at any time predicted there would be a major freeze in the early to middle part of the winter, although they did at one point before Christmas suggest there was an small chance of a change to colder weather happening before the turn of the year. While we are not in the middle of a big freeze, there is no doubt that the weather has generally been somewhat colder since the middle of January than it was for much of the time in December and the first half of this month. Furthermore, this coming week looks like being far from mild.

The contingency forecast also suggested to me that January would not be a particularly cold month and the 3 month cold signal was due to the expectation of a cold Feb and March. We'll have to wait and see what happens but they clearly have strong signals for High Latitude Blocking and potential for very cold weather moving through February.

Offline Brian Gaze  
#31 Posted : 27 January 2019 15:43:35(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Posts: 46,715

The ST had an article a couple of weeks ago saying the Met had given the government a warning with 70% confidence that severe cold would grip the nation in early February. If anyone has a subscription they may be able to find it.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline jhall  
#32 Posted : 27 January 2019 17:13:56(UTC)
jhall

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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

This place should be buzzing because that really is extraordinarily cold and snowy outlook. But the model output is looking much more average after this week. Very odd.

 

When you look at the timescales, for the period up to the 10th the MO rate it as only a "low chance" that it will turn severely cold. It looks like they think that any severe cold is more likely to occur later than that, so at or beyond the end of the period covered by GFS forecasts and beyond the coverage of most of the other models.

Cranleigh, Surrey
Offline Gavin D  
#33 Posted : 27 January 2019 17:22:52(UTC)
Gavin D

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United Kingdom

The following week

Turning briefly milder

Westerly winds

Rain at times

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47023092

Offline Gooner  
#34 Posted : 27 January 2019 21:57:26(UTC)
Gooner

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Man

LOL

Just watching the 21:55 telling what the weather will be like tomorrow ( Sunday ) poor , fancy broadcasting Saturday evenings forecast

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline tallyho_83  
#35 Posted : 27 January 2019 22:00:12(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,487
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

LOL

Just watching the 21:55 telling what the weather will be like tomorrow ( Sunday ) poor , fancy broadcasting Saturday evenings forecast

Haha I saw that as well it was showing Sunday 15:00 still ....when it's 21:55pm Sunday!! Pretty poor I must admit!

For a minute I watched the weather thinking SH1T - is it Sunday tomorrow? then realised ....no can't be!!?

 

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Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline Deep Powder  
#36 Posted : 27 January 2019 22:00:38(UTC)
Deep Powder

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Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

LOL

Just watching the 21:55 telling what the weather will be like tomorrow ( Sunday ) poor , fancy broadcasting Saturday evenings forecast

Yes I just watched that as well, it’s 21.55 on Sunday and I was watching the forecast for 14 hours earlier, 08.00 on Sunday, back to the past......bit poor

Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline Gooner  
#37 Posted : 27 January 2019 22:07:42(UTC)
Gooner

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Posts: 42,260
Man

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes I just watched that as well, it’s 21.55 on Sunday and I was watching the forecast for 14 hours earlier, 08.00 on Sunday, back to the past......bit poor

It was yesterdays , either that or she has had the same dress on for 2 days 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline tallyho_83  
#38 Posted : 27 January 2019 22:16:08(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,487
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

 

It was yesterdays , either that or she has had the same dress on for 2 days 

Well, I will watch the BBC 1 weather forecast shortly in 5 mins - hopefully this isn't another pre-recorded weather forecast that's a day old!!

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Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline tallyho_83  
#39 Posted : 27 January 2019 22:17:40(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,487
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes I just watched that as well, it’s 21.55 on Sunday and I was watching the forecast for 14 hours earlier, 08.00 on Sunday, back to the past......bit poor

Just like the new BBC weather graphics esp the precipitation graphics - they are almost 1 year old now I think!!

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Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (5m asl)

Offline Stolen Snowman  
#40 Posted : 27 January 2019 22:26:17(UTC)
Stolen Snowman

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Location: Burton Upon Trent

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

The ST had an article a couple of weeks ago saying the Met had given the government a warning with 70% confidence that severe cold would grip the nation in early February. If anyone has a subscription they may be able to find it.

How meaningful though is this? After all it’s just a forecast and the weather will do what it will.

I’ve often wondered of the point of confidence percentages if they’re not verified. There may be some sort of metric that checks back on the number of times the computer was correct (and you’d assume on average 7 out of 10 times in this scenario). But how do you define it. Or is it no better than a ‘gut’ feeling as in ‘we think there’s a higher likelihood of this because the computer says so!’ 

Makes you think.

Edited by user 27 January 2019 22:27:28(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.

Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent

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