More confusion, more model v model inconsistencies. This FI winter has the lot 😂

Post 144 its

 

GFS v ICON , UKMO and ECM.  Not good

 

The story of this winter is quite plain. There have been stellar charts at day 10, but nothing getting close to the reliable timeframe which is t+96. T+120 is FI and T+144 is the limit.

Shannon entropy has taken over the model output because of unusual events in the Stratosphere and because of deep solar minimum.

When we are in the usual zonal flow, the models and ensembles are pretty accurate out to about t+168, but in the current situation, they are nowhere. Concentrate on the next 4 days - even then we see changes as early as t+72.

This winter screamed potential and I believe it could have delivered HLB and those winter wonderland charts which crop up regularly at t+240, apart from one massive fly in the ointment - when the PV wa split asunder by the SSW, an active chunk of it took up residence in the least favourable location for UK cold - eastern Canada - as a consequence, whenever the models attempt to build ridging into Greenland from the Azores HP, it only ever works in low res, since the spoiler in Canada keeps spitting out active shortwaves which flatten the picture as we get into high res. The best that is on offer is a NW to SE flow with slider lows delivering snow for some as we saw this week - those hoping for the Beast or a Greenie HP are destined to be disappointed until the Canadian vortex remnant decides to take a vacation somewhere else - hopefully in California.

Just ignore anything at T+240, it will never happen whatever it shows, except by coincidence.

---

More confusion, more model v model inconsistencies. This FI winter has the lot 😂

 

it has it all, however it’s not transferred into reality as yet...for with only 5 weeks left, for us in the south at least, this is not yet Winter! 

2 frosts and mild temps make this is a mild if not very mild winter, despite the hype that started in October ...you know it’s bad when even the local media forecasts state bitterly cold next week with temps of 5-7 degrees? ...and the met office LRF..moving the goalposts...further and further..I wonder if it is coming in June  

 

 

 

 

it has it all, however it’s not transferred into reality as yet...for with only 5 weeks left, for us in the south at least, this is not yet Winter! 

2 frosts and mild temps make this is a mild if not very mild winter, despite the hype that started in October ...you know it’s bad when even the local media forecasts state bitterly cold next week with temps of 5-7 degrees? ...and the met office LRF..moving the goalposts...further and further..I wonder if it is coming in June  

 

 

come on get realistic - July more like,,,,,2020 😂

Seems cold PM is just as hard to model 6 days out as an easterly setup....trouble being is the phasing and that bloody azores ridging...I can sense all the energy is heading ENE on subsequent runs and not going to drop....but for the love of god i hope it doesnt....

---

ECM means follow the Op pretty well so less cold 168+ . 

It's going to take a pretty big flip back now tomorrow to save the 168 -240 period. GFS, GEFS and Para all very good but I just can't see them being right over the others.

 

---

ECM means follow the Op pretty well so less cold 168+ . 

It's going to take a pretty big flip back now tomorrow to save the 168 -240 period. GFS, GEFS and Para all very good but I just can't see them being right over the others.

 

Except that nothing has been right at all this winter post t+120.

They could just as easily flip another way tomorrow.

---

ECM means follow the Op pretty well so less cold 168+ . 

It's going to take a pretty big flip back now tomorrow to save the 168 -240 period. GFS, GEFS and Para all very good but I just can't see them being right over the others.

 

That period is permanently in a state of flip, so I really wouldn't stress it too much at the moment. 

The pattern evident for the next 5 days or so (and it may continue after that) is for shards of energy to be exfoliated from the cyclogenisis related to high thermal gradient around the W/SW of Greenland. What plays in our favour is the jet feeding these lows in a SE flow that brings them over/to the south of us. Some models are deflating these lows as they pop out under nascent blocking around Greenland, only to re-inflate them as they track toward us (and hence take a more ESE track, and cut-off of any potential cold feed from the N/NE). Are they overdoing this intensification? Stay tuned.

---

 

Except that nothing has been right at all this winter post t+120.

They could just as easily flip another way tomorrow.

 

Definitely time for more flip flopping that's for sure. 

---

Who's to say we won't be locked into a pattern of several cold/ below average days with snow chances from the NW interspersed with a couple of days of 'less cold' conditions?

Models picked up on the coming mild couple of days reasonably early on. Naturally some folk jumped to the conclusion that it spelled the end of our cold snap and perhaps our winter. Now we're looking at a return to cold next week with further chances of snow. Nothing widespread or overly disruptive for many I grant you, but it's better than mild zonal mush.

I'm not going to get overly concerned about less cold weather at t168 given it a) probably won't happen like that anyway and b) it'll might be a short-lived blip and we return to cold into Feb.

---

Who's to say we won't be locked into a pattern of several cold/ below average days with snow chances from the NW interspersed with a couple of days of 'less cold' conditions?

Models picked up on the coming mild couple of days reasonably early on. Naturally some folk jumped to the conclusion that it spelled the end of our cold snap and perhaps our winter. Now we're looking at a return to cold next week with further chances of snow. Nothing widespread or overly disruptive for many I grant you, but it's better than mild zonal mush.

I'm not going to get overly concerned about less cold weather at t168 given it a) probably won't happen like that anyway and b) it'll might be a short-lived blip and we return to cold into Feb.

Good post, Steve.

As MM said, it seems that this winter, the models have rarely if ever been proved correct when it comes to solutions shown for more than 5 days ahead. One only has to look at what happened at the end of last week just as it seemed there was something of a consensus beginning to build for an easterly spell this week.

There are not normal times in the world of model output, not by any stretch of the imagination.

---

I'll open a new thread at 21:05.

---