At T144 ECM evolution is different to GFS with the Iceland low not stretching as far south:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

The T+120 chart is the key - this ECM 12z run looking similar to the 00z in how it handles the direction of the US storm, which has repercussions down the line.

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ECM not quite as good as GFS by 168, but a lot better than the 00Z ECM!

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Slightly different from the ECM at day 7 but still very good looks snowy almost anywhere. what an amazing turnaround from this morning's 0s the 12s have been

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Yep, more energy dropping south on this run. Looks promising.

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Not bad at T192 and both GFS and ECM are not million miles apart.

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I’ve kept out today as I knew the overnight runs were just a blip 😉
My favourite this evening is the JMA - the 192 chart is about to deliver an Easterly from the jaws of hell. Proper ‘87 there.

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Easterly is there, although it gets beaten back by the Atlantic before those deep purple 850s can head our way. Certainly a big improvement on this morning's operational, but seems consistent with the ensembles.

 

Edit - just looked at the JMA. Crikey! CMA is also not bad, with an easterly although not as fierce.

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ECM @ 216 gearing up for a nice band of heavy snow moving in! I reckon it will have support given today’s runs

ECM @ 216 gearing up for a nice band of heavy snow moving in! I reckon it will have support given today’s runs

 

Indeed. and a Good Scandi High waiting to do it's job 

 

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I’ve kept out today as I knew the overnight runs were just a blip 😉
My favourite this evening is the JMA - the 192 chart is about to deliver an Easterly from the jaws of hell. Proper ‘87 there.

What's the JMA's track record for W. Europe, do you think? Is the investment in resolution and ongoing research enough to make the models credible?

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Slider low coming in off the Atlantic with -20s just across the North Sea. Not a bad 240hr chart to round off the evening.

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What's the JMA's track record for W. Europe, do you think? Is the investment in resolution and ongoing research enough to make the models credible?

Just subjective but I’d group it in the second string with the old GEM and CMA.

Although there is undoubtedly a big swing in favour of something significant next week, the tried and tested mantra still applies - cross model agreement at 120 (maximum) is required. 

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ECM @ 216 gearing up for a nice band of heavy snow moving in! I reckon it will have support given today’s runs

Academic at this range but milder air has got ahead of that system,it's more Kettley in the end.

 

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I’ve kept out today as I knew the overnight runs were just a blip 😉
My favourite this evening is the JMA - the 192 chart is about to deliver an Easterly from the jaws of hell. Proper ‘87 there.

People have been pointing this out on NW - we seem to be going through a spell of poor overnight runs followed by markedly different 12z runs which lifts the mood until the morning !

 

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would have loved to have seen the 264h ECM chart 87 esque

 

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Academic at this range but milder air has got ahead of that system,it's more Kettley in the end.

 

Comparing the T+216 and T+240 850 mb temperatures, it looks to me as if the colder air is winning the battle - at least in the south - with the -5 and -10 isotherms starting to move back westwards.

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More than happy with the ecm op run tonight. A little juggling of the synoptics and we could see a true bfte aka Feb 18 etc. The run tonight was also more amplified than yesterdays 12z which is a great trend the Jma also.
Would not be at all surprised to see this sitting on the warmer side of the ensembles.

Weird caching in my browser!

 

I think you can get something from the chemist for that.

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would have loved to have seen the 264h ECM chart 87 esque

 

I've got it here for you - only good for the very far North I'm afraid - 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120010205.gif

 

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I've got it here for you - only good for the very far North I'm afraid - 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120010205.gif

 

 

I was thinking along the lines of this.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1987&maand=1&dag=10&h=0&nmaps=24

 

 

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