very few of Ian,s yellows left >16 Jan end of Jan at the surface now Nice

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

I'd settle for #3 (remembering that the numbers start at 0).

I like 17 myself but im fussy

 

I'd settle for #3 (remembering that the numbers start at 0).

O/T but relevant

We are anticipating a high risk emerging later Jan into early Feb. Current thoughts are for this to manifest in episodic fashion, perhaps punctuated by less cold/milder phases due to the track of low pressure systems, with Feb having a 65-70% probability of being colder than avg.

Above tweet from Ian F 

V interesting 

Don't shoot me ...but why do I think it will be just standard wintry stuff 

O/T but relevant

We are anticipating a high risk emerging later Jan into early Feb. Current thoughts are for this to manifest in episodic fashion, perhaps punctuated by less cold/milder phases due to the track of low pressure systems, with Feb having a 65-70% probability of being colder than avg.

Above tweet from Ian F 

V interesting 

Don't shoot me ...but why do I think it will be just standard wintry stuff 

I like MH note better last night, keep the faith Marcus

Overnight EC Monthly is bonkers with major N Atlantic and eventually Greenland blocking by week 2 onwards and with low pressure over and to the S of the UK with a clear signal for E or NE winds into Feb. It's got to verify of course but a consistent fcst that now.

O/T but relevant

We are anticipating a high risk emerging later Jan into early Feb. Current thoughts are for this to manifest in episodic fashion, perhaps punctuated by less cold/milder phases due to the track of low pressure systems, with Feb having a 65-70% probability of being colder than avg.

Above tweet from Ian F 

V interesting 

Don't shoot me ...but why do I think it will be just standard wintry stuff 

Week today LP moves across ,

Hopefully drag the cold air down

Followed by a slider to the NW ?

Bit different ………….got a bomb to the NW 

O/T but relevant

We are anticipating a high risk emerging later Jan into early Feb. Current thoughts are for this to manifest in episodic fashion, perhaps punctuated by less cold/milder phases due to the track of low pressure systems, with Feb having a 65-70% probability of being colder than avg.

Above tweet from Ian F 

V interesting 

Don't shoot me ...but why do I think it will be just standard wintry stuff 

Yes I noticed the Met have also “gone public” on Twitter about the coming cold. No real detail beyond what they say in the long ranger though. 

This could be good 

This could be good 

Nice low forming over Italy. The jet must have made its way to Morocco and east again...

18z not as good as the 12z …..….not worth worrying about , the general set up is the same 

This is still with 4 days to go until Feb , with Feb being touted as a 'good un' , we could have some interesting few weeks ……...but this is the UK ….caution required id say 

Deepest deepest FI , HP building to the NE 

Are you sure Rob very active cold front moving south

Northwestern facing hills would get buried by that setup. A nonevent as far as the media would be concerned though as London would escape the snow...

I’ve little to add other than the background signal remains for something potentially special going into end Jan/Feb.
Some frankly astonishing GEFS this evening as many predicted there would be and this theme will grow.