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ECM @ 240 - People keep banging on about how good it is? - This doesn't look that wintry to me?
Thats a great chart. Sliding low and freezing SE winds. If it’s snow your after that’s a gooden
GFS FZ3 at 6z + 192 - weird chart !http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2019011306/gfs-0-192.png?6
GFS hasnt got a clue at the moment these weird charts are typical when its not sure what to do.
You need to look at the 850 mb chart as well. The wind has gone round to the east over eastern England, and brought in air that it close to -10 at 850 mb. And with surface pressure so low, there could be copious snowfall.
Kent get's the -10 @ 850hpa
That Azores HP really isn't helping!
Lots of fun interest in the Ensembles.The 06z age a good set and add more meat to the bone
P19 my pick - but there are a few non descript options too.
We’ll need a few more days before lighting the beacons on this one IMO, the one positive bring we’re not trying to lock in a three day Easterly but more a longer term cold period with potentially multiple opportunities.
P19 my pick - but there are a few non descript options too.We’ll need a few more days before lighting the beacons on this one IMO, the one positive bring we’re not trying to lock in a three day Easterly but more a longer term cold period with potentially multiple opportunities.
Agreed. And quite right about P19x I’ll bank that one!!
06z para looks very snowy Monday 22nd and Tuesday!
-7 to -9c uppers and daytime maxes of 0 to +2c by day falling to -2c and we have this heading our way..!?
Slider low is similar to the ECM @ 240 hours?
Resulting in this at the end of the day:
Slowly starting to get a tad excited with the output as we head into the latter end of next week and beyond. Whilst where and when it will snow is futile at these timescales what we can say is we’re looking at potentially some very cold overnight minimums as we enter into the final ten days of the month.
06z ensemble chart for London - you can clearly see the 0P run us milder?
London snow row probably the highest it has been this winter.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London
Also a few trenchers are starting to appear in the GEFS output.
Some interesting output this morning for sure, but also some nondescript runs too- somewhat in the minority though. I just hope that Sod’s law doesn’t prevail....
If I'm hopeful and Solar Cycles is hopeful then that should be good enough for you !
Seriously, I think the GFS will backtrack towards the Euro position. Going forward we have a Euro trough and increasing signs that the Azores High will displace favourably. With both of these factors taken together with EC ensemble guidance, we really shouldn't go wrong.
London snow row probably the highest it has been this winter.https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=LondonAlso a few trenchers are starting to appear in the GEFS output.
We really need that OP run to make it's mind up and 'get a grip'!!