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Offline Brian Gaze  
#1 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:00:32(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 45,305

Not had time to look at the output in-depth today but the general picture remains the same. More changeable and colder weather is on the way. What's much less certain is:

1) Will the snow risk be significant in the southern half of the UK

2) Will the colder conditions be transient or prolonged

Onwards...

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline cultman1  
#2 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:05:50(UTC)
cultman1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 835
Man
Location: Fulham London SW6

The Met Office have sent out a round robin email to their subscribers and are 'quite bullish' about the forthcoming cold spell countrywide from late next week
Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#3 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:06:45(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 734
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

Today has been fascinating.

I'd say that the interest for me is at its highest since the new year. I do feel we are now starting to see some effects showing there hand. In fact Retron made the point earlier, that reversal will be ongoing for a number of days yet so thing could get better from here on in.

Looking forward to the ensembles.

Mark

Stratford, London

Offline tallyho_83  
#4 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:09:50(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,349
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

Not had time to look at the output in-depth today but the general picture remains the same. More changeable and colder weather is on the way. What's much less certain is:

1) Will the snow risk be significant in the southern half of the UK

2) Will the colder conditions be transient or prolonged

Onwards...

The 12z Op run ends messy but there is plenty of snow potential in that run for all parts of the country up until 27th Jan in FI.

Meanwhile the Met Office Update looks tasty - i did share on previous thread. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

If only this could be broken down into each month and hope this or most of the blocking comes during the winter time - I.E February.

Below average temperatures at 850hpa too! Also looks like whilst the South and east of Europe have had all the cold and snow it seems as if they will warm up as we cool down as does NE AMERICA - time will tell and if this comes about - it could be that we have a very late start to Spring like back in 2018 or March 2013! Who knows?

So blocked and so perfect for southerly tracking lows as it seems!

Just got to love the northern blocking there:

Edited by user 11 January 2019 18:15:04(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (5m asl)

Winter 2017/18 stats for Exeter from 1st December 2017 - 1st March 2018:

Coldest temp recorded -5.5c (27/28th Feb 2018 - making it the coldest temp recorded since 2012)

Number of mornings with frost 12

Ice day's: 1 (28th Feb 2018)

No of days with snow falling: 6

No of days with snow lying 0

No of days with snow settling 1 (A tiny trace of frozen snowflakes on morning of 12th Feb 2018)

No of days sleet/soft hail fell: 8

No of days with freezing fog: 0.

No of days with frost lasting all day: 0

Warmest daytime max 14.4c 11:30am (25th December 2017)

Lowest pressure recorded (979mb)

Offline tallyho_83  
#5 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:15:19(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,349
Location: Devon

From next weekend on wards things look...'INTERESTING' for the whole of the UK, if this set up verifies!? 

 

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (5m asl)

Winter 2017/18 stats for Exeter from 1st December 2017 - 1st March 2018:

Coldest temp recorded -5.5c (27/28th Feb 2018 - making it the coldest temp recorded since 2012)

Number of mornings with frost 12

Ice day's: 1 (28th Feb 2018)

No of days with snow falling: 6

No of days with snow lying 0

No of days with snow settling 1 (A tiny trace of frozen snowflakes on morning of 12th Feb 2018)

No of days sleet/soft hail fell: 8

No of days with freezing fog: 0.

No of days with frost lasting all day: 0

Warmest daytime max 14.4c 11:30am (25th December 2017)

Lowest pressure recorded (979mb)

Offline David M Porter  
#6 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:21:03(UTC)
David M Porter

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,871
Man
Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

For me, the pattern being suggested by the models for later next week onwards is in many ways reminiscent of the one we had for a while leading up to the arrival of the Beast at the end of last February. Much of last winter IIRC seemed to be dominated by a NW-SE pattern and it was this which gave my area its greatest amount of snow of last winter prior to the coming of the Beast.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline Rob K  
#7 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:28:23(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,613
Location: Northeast Hampshire

GFSP very different from the op run, with a Sceuro high by 192 hrs in place of the trough on GFS.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline doctormog  
#8 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:31:37(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 68,376

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post
GFSP very different from the op run, with a Sceuro high by 192 hrs in place of the trough on GFS.

Different to the GFS but similiar to the 06z GFSP, so hopefully the cold will flood in from the NW on the same timescale.

Aberdeen
Offline ballamar  
#9 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:42:15(UTC)
ballamar

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,131
Location: Essex

Ignoring too much detail the overall pattern looks wintry cold rain sleet and snow all likely - all snow the further north. As the models start to see the impact of the reversal coming into more reliable time frame the evolution will become more apparent- all model assumptions at the moment
Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#10 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:46:24(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,933
Man
Location: Forest Gate London

.

So, looking at the GFS it has cold NW flow by Wednesday next week, then a new Low pushes in by Friday, turns less cold it brings rain in, and it has a Cold day with cold NW winds and Exiting PV Low to North Europe from the UK on the Saturday 19th Jan.

Scotland is cold on Monday the 14th with -10 850's, with much of the UK seeing less cold westerly WNW flow, and Mild air for all on Tuesday next week, 15th Jan. 2019.

The Icon Model is different on Tuesday as the Low Pressure is being tracked across Far North UK instead of Central UK, that GFS shows.  And it shows on it's 12z run, that another Deep Low pressure follow's quickly on Tuesday into Wednesday, brings cold NW winds and wintry showers after a spell of heavy rain, rain to snow in NW UK, pushing SE by Wednesday night.

It shows less cold air on Tuesday as pressure rise, with another Low moving in by Saturday 19th, to SW UK. Cold in Scotland N England by Friday Saturday.

UKMO is very much like what GFS is showing, and it brings NW winds on Wednesday 16th Jan, as cold air from the NW push Southeast, and it is less cold on the preceeding Monday and Tuesday but Tuesday brings Low Pressure with heavy rain in Central and NW North UK etc etc.

Low Pressure diving SE during Sunday 20th to Tuesday 21st on GFS 12z, a Rain Sleet and Snow event on the Sunday 20th, it is showing today but will it?.

And GFS 12z has UK being very cold On Monday and Tuesday 21 and 22 January with biting cold NE winds ha ha.

.

Edited by user 11 January 2019 17:51:45(UTC)  | Reason: Not Specified

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline kmoorman  
#11 Posted : 11 January 2019 17:59:14(UTC)
kmoorman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,302

There seem to be a few milder options in FI this time.... although that may be my mind playing tricks.

I'll need to analyse the snow rows once the 12Z GEFS appears on the chart page to be sure.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Offline tallyho_83  
#12 Posted : 11 January 2019 18:05:22(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,349
Location: Devon

Some very blocked ensembles I see - some members going for intense Greenland block where as others want to bring in an easterly and centre it over Scandinavia - the rest don't know what to do with the block:

This is the average of all 20 ensembles oif the 12z run:

Notice a southerly tracking jet stream and the build of pressure over Greenland now starting to show up:

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (5m asl)

Winter 2017/18 stats for Exeter from 1st December 2017 - 1st March 2018:

Coldest temp recorded -5.5c (27/28th Feb 2018 - making it the coldest temp recorded since 2012)

Number of mornings with frost 12

Ice day's: 1 (28th Feb 2018)

No of days with snow falling: 6

No of days with snow lying 0

No of days with snow settling 1 (A tiny trace of frozen snowflakes on morning of 12th Feb 2018)

No of days sleet/soft hail fell: 8

No of days with freezing fog: 0.

No of days with frost lasting all day: 0

Warmest daytime max 14.4c 11:30am (25th December 2017)

Lowest pressure recorded (979mb)

Offline White Meadows  
#13 Posted : 11 January 2019 18:05:33(UTC)
White Meadows

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,944
Location: West Sussex

Great updates from met office today. Usually The real gold dust at this range. Their text in mid & longe range includes all of my favourite words “ice, widespread severe frost, snow possible anywhere” and even better when combined with “gales”
Offline tallyho_83  
#14 Posted : 11 January 2019 18:08:35(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,349
Location: Devon

Not feast from the east weather but at least it's a start:

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (5m asl)

Winter 2017/18 stats for Exeter from 1st December 2017 - 1st March 2018:

Coldest temp recorded -5.5c (27/28th Feb 2018 - making it the coldest temp recorded since 2012)

Number of mornings with frost 12

Ice day's: 1 (28th Feb 2018)

No of days with snow falling: 6

No of days with snow lying 0

No of days with snow settling 1 (A tiny trace of frozen snowflakes on morning of 12th Feb 2018)

No of days sleet/soft hail fell: 8

No of days with freezing fog: 0.

No of days with frost lasting all day: 0

Warmest daytime max 14.4c 11:30am (25th December 2017)

Lowest pressure recorded (979mb)

Offline Rob K  
#15 Posted : 11 January 2019 18:15:00(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,613
Location: Northeast Hampshire

If only the GFSP would deliver some decent blocking to the NW 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline tallyho_83  
#16 Posted : 11 January 2019 18:17:55(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,349
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

 

The 12z Op run ends messy but there is plenty of snow potential in that run for all parts of the country up until 27th Jan in FI.

Meanwhile the Met Office Update looks tasty - i did share on previous thread. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

If only this could be broken down into each month and hope this or most of the blocking comes during the winter time - I.E February.

Below average temperatures at 850hpa too! Also looks like whilst the South and east of Europe have had all the cold and snow it seems as if they will warm up as we cool down as does NE AMERICA - time will tell and if this comes about - it could be that we have a very late start to Spring like back in 2018 or March 2013! Who knows?

It's so blocked and so perfect for southerly tracking lows as it seems!

Just got to love the northern blocking there:

I confused myself a little - what's the difference between the mean sea level pressure and 500hpa height? WHich is more relevant to us if we want cold and snowy blocked weather? Or both as good? Both charts look identical? 

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (5m asl)

Winter 2017/18 stats for Exeter from 1st December 2017 - 1st March 2018:

Coldest temp recorded -5.5c (27/28th Feb 2018 - making it the coldest temp recorded since 2012)

Number of mornings with frost 12

Ice day's: 1 (28th Feb 2018)

No of days with snow falling: 6

No of days with snow lying 0

No of days with snow settling 1 (A tiny trace of frozen snowflakes on morning of 12th Feb 2018)

No of days sleet/soft hail fell: 8

No of days with freezing fog: 0.

No of days with frost lasting all day: 0

Warmest daytime max 14.4c 11:30am (25th December 2017)

Lowest pressure recorded (979mb)

Offline tallyho_83  
#17 Posted : 11 January 2019 18:24:14(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 9,349
Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post

If only the GFSP would deliver some decent blocking to the NW 

Looks better from the N. Pole view down- got to love this chart and 1075mbs if this comes off? - This ties in well with the met Office blocking etc over Greenland. This denotes that if we get cold snowy weather it would most probably be from a Icelandic or Greenland block instead of a Scandinavian block therefore the north of the country esp Scotland /N. Ireland would do well out of this. Scotland and N, Ireland do poorly in terms of cold when it comes to easterlies!! 

Shame you can't see and get precipitation type on para charts. 

------------------------------------------------------------

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (5m asl)

Winter 2017/18 stats for Exeter from 1st December 2017 - 1st March 2018:

Coldest temp recorded -5.5c (27/28th Feb 2018 - making it the coldest temp recorded since 2012)

Number of mornings with frost 12

Ice day's: 1 (28th Feb 2018)

No of days with snow falling: 6

No of days with snow lying 0

No of days with snow settling 1 (A tiny trace of frozen snowflakes on morning of 12th Feb 2018)

No of days sleet/soft hail fell: 8

No of days with freezing fog: 0.

No of days with frost lasting all day: 0

Warmest daytime max 14.4c 11:30am (25th December 2017)

Lowest pressure recorded (979mb)

Offline White Meadows  
#18 Posted : 11 January 2019 18:24:41(UTC)
White Meadows

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,944
Location: West Sussex

ECM setting up the treats at 120

http://www.wetterzentral...mp;mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Offline White Meadows  
#19 Posted : 11 January 2019 18:26:49(UTC)
White Meadows

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,944
Location: West Sussex

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post

 

I confused myself a little - what's the difference between the mean sea level pressure and 500hpa ? WHich is more relevant to us if we want cold and snowy blocked weather? Or both as good? Both charts look identical? 

a few thousand feet. 18k to be precise. You should know that by now. 

 

Edit: Tally, that parallel chart reminds me VERY much of early December 2010

Edited by user 11 January 2019 18:29:58(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline doctormog  
#20 Posted : 11 January 2019 18:30:10(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 68,376

At 144hr the ECM 12z op is very similiar to the UKMO at the same time point.

http://www.wetterzentral...maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

Aberdeen
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