Met Office Hadley         3.9c.      Anomaly     0.3c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                      4.50c     Anomaly     0.35c

Netweather                   4.56c     Anomaly     0.37c

Canvey Island                5.7c      Anomaly     0.07c

Darwen                         5.7c       Anomaly    0.44c

Hexam                          5.3c       Anomaly    1.02c

Mount Sorrel                  5.2c      Anomaly     0.7c

Forest Town Mansfield   5.6c   Anomaly   1.1c

Peasedown St  John   5.3c    Anomaly    0.1c.

Mean of my 10    5.33c  Anomaly   -0.38c.      

Met Office Hadley         4.5c.     Anomaly     1.0c. Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                      4.98c    Anomaly     0.83c

Netweather                   5.19c    Anomaly     1.0c

Bordon                         4.7c      Anomaly      -3.14c

Cheadle Hulme              5.1c     Anomaly      -0.23c

Clevedon Weather          5.3c     Anomaly      -1.18c

Forest Town Mansfield   5.8c   Anomaly  1.3c

Peasedown St John   6.0c    Anomaly  0.8c.

Treviskey Redruth    7.4c     Anomaly   -o.48c

Mean of my 10   5.7c.  Anomaly  -0.01c.    

A bit of a rise and will probably continue that way for a few days. Then it’s looking like it could take a slide right to the end of month according to today’s output.  I’d overlook a hit on my competition chances if it includes a bit of snow!  

Met Office Hadley         4.8c      Anomaly      1.3c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                      4.88c    Anomaly      0.73c

Netweather                   5.33c    Anomaly      1.14c

Bordon                         4.3c      Anomaly      -3.54c

Canvey Island               5.9c      Anomaly      0.25c

Cheadle Hulme              5.5c     Anomaly      -1.28c

Clevedon Weather          5.5c     Anomaly      0.78c

Darwen                         5.3c     Anomaly      0.04c

Hexam                          4.9c     Anomaly      0.19c

Mount Sorrel                  5.1c     Anomaly      0.59c

Forest Town Mansfield      5.4c     Anomaly      0.9c

Peasedown St John          6.1c     Anomaly      -0.1c

Treviskey Redruth          7.4c.     Anomaly      -0.48c.

Mean of my 10 Stations  5.51c. Anomaly   0.2c.        

thought the colder air would arrive earlier,now it seems later in month so think too low my guess is now

Said Yoda 

I'm in the same boat I think

Met Office Hadley        4.6c.     Anomaly     1.1c. Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                     4.59c    Anomaly     0.44c

Netweather                  5.02c    Anomaly     0.83c

Bordon                        4.0c      Anomaly     -3.84c

Canvey Island              5.5c      Anomaly     -0.15c

Cheadle Hulme             4.7c     Anomaly     -0.63c

Clevedon Weather         5.2c     Anomaly     -0.13

Darwen                        5.2c     Anomaly     -0.6c 

Hexam                         4.8c     Anomaly     0.52c

Mount Sorrel                 4.8c    Anomaly      0.09c

Forest Town Mansfield    5.1c    Anomaly      0.6

Peasedown St John        5.8c    Anomaly      0.6c

Treviskey Redruth          6.3c.   Anomaly      -1.58c.

Mean Of My Watched 10 Stations    5.14c   Anomaly 0.57c.      

Met Office Hadley         4.5c.    Anomaly   1.0c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                      4.66c   Anomaly   0.51c

Netweather                   4.82c   Anomaly   0.63c

Forest Town Mansfield    5.5c     Anomaly   1.2c

Peasedown St John      5.7c   Anomaly   0.5c

Treviskey Redruth     6.8c.   Anomaly   -1.08c.

Mean Of My 10 Stations  5.35c. Anomaly  -0.36c.   

If current output comes off, I'd expect a fall of 1c-1.5c in the CET over the rest of the month.

If current output comes off, I'd expect a fall of 1c-1.5c in the CET over the rest of the month. 

But, it also means I have a better chance of getting snow for my birthday this year!  You’d think it wasn’t too much to ask when you were born in January but it rarely happens!  

If current output comes off, I'd expect a fall of 1c-1.5c in the CET over the rest of the month.

 

 

There will be a peak of around 5.4 or so around 17th. The final fortnight will I'm sure be colder.  Let's say it (final 14 days)comes in as a CET of 2.5c for the final fortnight (i.e. a cold one) we would then be looking at a mean of around 4.0.

All very hypothetical, but yes, anything from 3.4 to 4.6 as a finishing number would appear to be reasonable assumption at this very early point.  NB: These calculations are made deliberately NOT basing these figures on any one model run. 

Looking at the latest sigmals - I wish I had never gone for 6.0C

I don't know what I thought I was thinking.

WI's estimates look sensible. 12z GFS for example gives me 3.0*C when using the LTA for the final few days of the month.

The potential for CET-crashing conditions should a ridge align correctly while deep cold spills out of the increasingly disordered polar vortex lobes. Could be quite a messy affair until the late stages of the month though with frontal incursions commonplace; might struggle to manage more than intermittent well-below zero nights.

A good recipe for snow events, but climate change will make it harder than it used to be; we'll need it to go that bit further in terms of flow alignment etc.

So my CET prediction is currently running some 0.4C below the Hadley provisional figures. So expect some very large downward adjustments at the end of this month.

As of today the CET by my calculations stands at 4.19C, a slight uptick from yesterday.

The next 5 days will be rather mild before things turn cold again. It is likely that once the cold sets in it will stay for the rest of the month. I expect the cold will be greater than is currently showing in the figures below. 

Current estimate is for the CET to rise above 5C in the coming days before falling back to 4.30C by the 25th.

At this stage my best guess estimate of the final January CET is somewhere around 3.5C.

But huge uncertainty on that as it really depends on whether severe cold digs in before the end of the month, in which case the CET may end up closer to 3C. If the cold is less significant than this evenings models are suggesting then the CET could finish nearer 4C.

Overall I am still quite happy with my CET prediction of 3.2C at the moment. Given the wild swings in temperature this month it is a very difficult one to call. So anyone getting close to the final CET will have done very well (or been very lucky!).

Met Office Hadley           4.6c.      Anomaly     1.0c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                        4.88c      Anomaly    0.73c

Netweather                     4.99c      Anomaly    0.8c

Bordon                           4.7c         Anomaly    -3.14c

Canvey Island                 5.9c         Anomaly    0.25c

Cheadle Hulme                4.7c         Anomaly    -0.63c

Clevedon Weather            5.6c         Anomaly    0.88c

Darwen                           5.7c         Anomaly    0.44c

Hexam                            5.3c         Anomaly    1.02c

Mount Sorrel                   6.0c          Anomaly    1.29c

Forest Town Mansfield      5.6c          Anomaly    1.1c

Treviskey Redruth            6.9c          Anomaly    -0.98

Mean Of My Watched  10 Stations    5.63c.   Anomaly   -0.08c.  

Met Office Hadley       4.9c.     Anomaly    1.4c

Metcheck                   5.24c     Anomaly    1.08c

Netweather               5.32c      Anomaly    1.13c

Forest Town Mansfield    5.4c    Anomaly    0.9c

Peasedown St John        6.3c     Anomaly    1.1c

Treviskey Redruth         7.2c      -0.68c.

Mean of my 10 5.95c.  Anomaly   0.24c.

Met Office Hadley          5.3c     Anomaly      1.8c Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                      5.45c    Anomaly      1.29c

Netweather                   5.65c    Anomaly      1.46c

Bordon                          5.2c     Anomaly      -2.64c

Clevedon Weather          6.3c     Anomaly      - 0.18c

Forest Town Mansfield    6.0c    Anomaly   1.5c

Peasedown St John        6.7c   Anomaly   1.5c

Treviskey Redruth          7.3c   Anomaly    -0.58c.

Mean of My 10 Watched Stations    6.7c.  Anomaly   0.99c.               

 Flipping heck!  It’s actually gone above my guess!  Yeah, I know, it’s all downhill within the next few days!  

 Flipping heck!  It’s actually gone above my guess!  Yeah, I know, it’s all downhill within the next few days!  

It's gone above my guess as well.

One of the reasons why I chose the value which I went for is because there has been a number of occasions in the past where Gavin P. has predicted in his month ahead forecasts that the temperature during that particular month will be fairly close to average, only to then discover that the month in question was actually warmer in the end, than what he had anticipated.

Given the uncertain nature about what would happen after the recent SSW event (if anything at all), I always felt that this was likely to be one of these months where there was a very good chance of that being the case once again.

Given that the shorter range models in particular are still not really going for that much colder weather during the second half of this month which has been greatly talked about over on the MO threads on this forum, I would say that my chances for this month are starting to look really good just now and even though I'm not expecting it to be even warmer than what I had guessed for this month, I wouldn't now be surprised if that actually ended up happening.

Oooh!  I’m not going to stick my neck out that far John!  I’m still expecting something colder than average for the final third of the month!  I can feel it in me water!  

Added to which, GW’s gone much lower and he’s never far off the mark!  So I’m sure I’ve gone too high!