Hey!  Well done HT!  And I think that means the amazing Darren’s done it again, although Steve has given him a run for his money  and an exciting finish.

What a year it’s been though!  Probably the most exciting since we started these CET threads, not just for the competition but for watching records toppling!  I’ve lost track of all the records set throughout the year but I’d be surprised if it hasn’t been a record year for records!  

Thank you all for the friendly banter and thank you SC, Gavin and GW for all the technical data you provide.

Biggest New Year’s Honour goes to GW of course for running these threads!   (Can’t find the ‘clapping hands’ smilie). 

Does this mean that we get to call him Sir GW?

Thanks GW! I think I need to do a winner's acceptance speech? 

Anyway, thanks for the congratulations and especially thanks for the all-time table over the last 9 years. What the hell was I doing in 2013? I'm shocked to see how far ahead of the pack I am, although I suppose I am now only the first person to win the competition more than once.

I am disappointed to have gone off the boil in the last three months of 2018, and almost blew it, but I had enough in reserve to ride out the year. Where did snowshoe come from? He could have taken me if things were a little different. I'm annoyed that I missed out not only on beating the record, but also on failing to beat my winning score from 2014, so I'm hoping to try and beat that in 2019, you have been warned. 

Having said that, January 2019 looks tricky. I've not put my guess in yet. 

The winning figure of 6.69C is the third best since the competition started in 1999. 

I think you mean 2009? 

Thanks GW! I think I need to do a winner's acceptance speech? 

Anyway, thanks for the congratulations and especially thanks for the all-time table over the last 9 years. What the hell was I doing in 2013? I'm shocked to see how far ahead of the pack I am, although I suppose I am now only the first person to win the competition more than once.

I am disappointed to have gone off the boil in the last three months of 2018, and almost blew it, but I had enough in reserve to ride out the year. Where did snowshoe come from? He could have taken me if things were a little different. I'm annoyed that I missed out not only on beating the record, but also on failing to beat my winning score from 2014, so I'm hoping to try and beat that in 2019, you have been warned. 

Having said that, January 2019 looks tricky. I've not put my guess in yet. 

Finally here is the updated table I posted yesterday that now includes the 2018 data. This shows the average prediction error for the last 10 years for those members who have been in the competition for the whole of that period (with a maximum of one missed year which is indicated in orange).

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Direct link to larger table TABLE

Where's the results for 2009? 

That was an especially fantastic competition year.

Congratulations to Darren S, and many thanks to Global Warming for running this competition.

I'm again astonished at how well I did considering my predictions were mostly just guess work.

Very modest, but I've just noticed that you won the 2017 contest, and came within a whisker of back-to-back wins! I'd say you are the person to beat, rather than me. 

Actually, looking at GWs table, 12 degrees out means just a degree a month out.

Have I missed the annual (ie year's CET) prediction outcomes somewhere?

Actually, looking at GWs table, 12 degrees out means just a degree a month out.

Have I missed the annual (ie year's CET) prediction outcomes somewhere?

Yes the details are in the annual CET thread funnily enough 

 

Yes the details are in the annual CET thread funnily enough 

Whoops.

(in very small print): thank you.

Ahem!

  

Where's the results for 2009? 

That was an especially fantastic competition year.

Ahem!

I have been asked about the performance of regular participants to the CET competition over the years. I have gone back to 2010 and calculated the average prediction error for those members who have participated every year since 2010. I ignored 2009, which was the first year I ran the competition (because there were too few participants - sorry Saint). I have allowed one missed year otherwise it would be a very short list. For those who did not make it to the end of one year I have used the average prediction error of all the others in the table for that specific year (this figures are highlighted in orange).

Here is the table - there are 18 people listed. No surprise that Darren S is comfortably in the lead. This lead will be extended when the 2018 results are added.

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Direct link to larger table TABLE

Here you go Saint! 

Yes, well... I should think so.

[mutters to self] one bloody moment of glory... snatched away... blah, blah [/mutters to self]

I was also responsible for the last two months' predictions having to be PM'd (no all predictions, obvs) as I was leading going into December and cynically waited for my two nearest (only!) challengers to post their guesses, then calculated the forecast I'd need to make to guarantee I'd win. I think GW sussed me out straight away, but there was nowt in the rules to stop me doing that.

 

 

Yes, well... I should think so.

 

[mutters to self] one bloody moment of glory... snatched away... blah, blah [/mutters to self]

I was also responsible for the last two months' predictions having to be PM'd (no all predictions, obvs) as I was leading going into December and cynically waited for my two nearest (only!) challengers to post their guesses, then calculated the forecast I'd need to make to guarantee I'd win. I think GW sussed me out straight away, but there was nowt in the rules to stop me doing that.

 

I was also responsible for the last two months' predictions having to be PM'd (no all predictions, obvs) as I was leading going into December and cynically waited for my two nearest (only!) challengers to post their guesses, then calculated the forecast I'd need to make to guarantee I'd win. I think GW sussed me out straight away, but there was nowt in the rules to stop me doing that.

ROFL! Had to be you...

I was also responsible for the last two months' predictions having to be PM'd (no all predictions, obvs) as I was leading going into December and cynically waited for my two nearest (only!) challengers to post their guesses, then calculated the forecast I'd need to make to guarantee I'd win. I think GW sussed me out straight away, but there was nowt in the rules to stop me doing that. 

I remember it only too well! I absolutely twigged right away what was going on, but fair play to you for having the nous to realise that you could make a prediction to guarantee you a win. So I had no option but to let it slide and instead focus on how to close the loophole for the next year.

Here is the detailed data for December which I didn't post with the charts earlier in the week

FULL SIZE TABLE

FULL SIZE TABLE