So someone will need to change their forecast tomorrow or re-write rather:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

 

Someone has changed their forecast - or had a tweek'

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

I wonder if they base their forecast on models only too? - Just interesting whenever the GFS or ECM etc models flip then their forecasts flip as well and go mild. Next one to flip is the Met Office update and then the BBC monthly?

 

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Today's MetO update. Of note:

• Mention of a "small chance" of staying cold this weekend; a "less cold" period is mentioned


• In the extended outlook, "very cold" conditions are now likely

UK Outlook for Friday 25 Jan 2019 to Sunday 3 Feb 2019:

On Friday, southeastern areas are likely to stay dry, bright and cold, perhaps with some freezing fog patches at first. Elsewhere it could turn less cold as a band of rain and drizzle moves in from the west, with some hill snow possible in the north. However, there is a small chance that it could stay dry, bright and cold across much of the country with wintry showers in the east. Thereafter, an unsettled period of weather is possible with further band of rain moving southeast across the UK, with brighter and showery weather in between. Snow is also possible in some northern and central areas at times as it turns increasingly cold with overnight frosts, although some brief milder interludes are possible too.
UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:

Changeable conditions are most likely at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, very cold conditions are more likely to develop through this period with a greater chance of northerly and easterly winds. This brings an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frosts, however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the northwest. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder and wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring a risk of significant snow and ice at times.

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Good update 

 

Cheers Darren 

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A big shift as expected towards the milder end of week/weekend that we have seen from the NWP since late Friday. They have definitely been behind the NWP with this.

 

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Today's MetO update. Of note:

• Mention of a "small chance" of staying cold this weekend; a "less cold" period is mentioned


• In the extended outlook, "very cold" conditions are now likely

UK Outlook for Friday 25 Jan 2019 to Sunday 3 Feb 2019:

On Friday, southeastern areas are likely to stay dry, bright and cold, perhaps with some freezing fog patches at first. Elsewhere it could turn less cold as a band of rain and drizzle moves in from the west, with some hill snow possible in the north. However, there is a small chance that it could stay dry, bright and cold across much of the country with wintry showers in the east. Thereafter, an unsettled period of weather is possible with further band of rain moving southeast across the UK, with brighter and showery weather in between. Snow is also possible in some northern and central areas at times as it turns increasingly cold with overnight frosts, although some brief milder interludes are possible too.
UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:

Changeable conditions are most likely at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, very cold conditions are more likely to develop through this period with a greater chance of northerly and easterly winds. This brings an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frosts, however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the northwest. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder and wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring a risk of significant snow and ice at times.

Thanks Darren. An interesting update for wintry weather fans. Chilly and uncertain seem to be the overriding themes.

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A big shift as expected towards the milder end of week/weekend that we have seen from the NWP since late Friday. They have definitely been behind the NWP with this.

 

yes I completely agree, let’s hope the extended very cold outlook doesn’t blow up in their face also as we move into Feb. 

 

yes I completely agree, let’s hope the extended very cold outlook doesn’t blow up in their face also as we move into Feb. 

Yes the worry is that they see topplers for the w/c 28/1 - not what the GFS shows and then we are relying on more jam tomorrow HLB ppearing early to mid Feb.

 

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I wonder how temperature will get over the snowcover inland up here this week? Here’s this afternoon’s Met Office forecast.

“Regional Forecast for Grampian
Headline:
Frost tonight. Mainly cloudy Monday, rain and hill snow later.

This Evening and Tonight:
This evening will be dry and clear with a widespread frost soon setting in. Remaining dry and frosty for the rest of the night, locally severe across Deeside, with localised freezing fog patches. Minimum temperature -7 °C.

Monday:
A bright start but dry and cold with a strengthening southerly wind. Patchy rain and hill snow spreading from the west in the evening. Snow possible to lower levels overnight. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:
Mainly dry, cold and bright on Tuesday, isolated wintry showers possible in the north. Staying mostly dry and cold with overnight frost Wednesday and Thursday. A severe frost in glens.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfnt07u1s#?date=2019-01-20 

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A big shift as expected towards the milder end of week/weekend that we have seen from the NWP since late Friday. They have definitely been behind the NWP with this.

 

There's no reference to 'milder' conditions at the weekend in that forecast.  It says 'less cold', which is altogether different - 'less cold' means still cold but less so.

 

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If we still have the trop not playing ball then we’ll see another repeat of what’s just gone. I said way back last month in the MOD thread of this scenario possibly playing out.

Until we get the short term models singing from the same hymn sheet at +144 or less then it could well be another close but no cigar situation......... 😏

This week

Cold
Wintry showers
Harsh frosts
Less cold Friday

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46938377

Yellow warning out for snow for the Highlands... in January

Between 14:00 Mon 21st and 23:59 Mon 21st
Snow is expected to settle over the high ground of Scotland


Well no **** Sherlock. Does that really warrant a yellow warning? Surely anyone knows it snows on the tops in January?

 

 

There's also now a noticeable diconnect between the end of the 5-dayer and the start of the long-ranger.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Cold, with wintry showers in places on Wednesday, with sunshine elsewhere. Becoming less cold and cloudier thereafter, with some rain spreading erratically eastwards from Thursday, perhaps preceded by snow.

 

So expect the long-ranger to change quite dramatically today.

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Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jan 2019 to Monday 4 Feb 2019:

Changeable on Saturday with rain and hill snow clearing southeastwards, to leave a brighter and showery picture for the remainder of the weekend. Showers will be of a wintry mix with snow possible at lower levels, particularly in the north and it will be windy with coastal gales probable in the north and west. Thereafter, the final few days of January and early February are likely to remain rather unsettled with brisk winds, outbreaks of rain and hill snow, as well as some showery interludes in between. It will remain cold for most with widespread overnight frosts as well as the risk of ice. Snow remains a possibility to lower levels, particularly in the north.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2019:

The weather will continue to be mixed through early February with a continuation of the generally cold conditions. This will bring spells of rain and hill snow, interspersed by showery interludes, with a continued risk of snow to lower levels, especially in the north. As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frost, however there remains some uncertainty. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder interludes, bringing a risk of more significant snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Yellow warning out for snow for the Highlands... in January

Between 14:00 Mon 21st and 23:59 Mon 21st
Snow is expected to settle over the high ground of Scotland


Well no **** Sherlock. Does that really warrant a yellow warning? Surely anyone knows it snows on the tops in January?

 

 

There's also now a noticeable diconnect between the end of the 5-dayer and the start of the long-ranger.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Cold, with wintry showers in places on Wednesday, with sunshine elsewhere. Becoming less cold and cloudier thereafter, with some rain spreading erratically eastwards from Thursday, perhaps preceded by snow.

 

So expect the long-ranger to change quite dramatically today.

Or not Rob 

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Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jan 2019 to Monday 4 Feb 2019:

Changeable on Saturday with rain and hill snow clearing southeastwards, to leave a brighter and showery picture for the remainder of the weekend. Showers will be of a wintry mix with snow possible at lower levels, particularly in the north and it will be windy with coastal gales probable in the north and west. Thereafter, the final few days of January and early February are likely to remain rather unsettled with brisk winds, outbreaks of rain and hill snow, as well as some showery interludes in between. It will remain cold for most with widespread overnight frosts as well as the risk of ice. Snow remains a possibility to lower levels, particularly in the north.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2019:

The weather will continue to be mixed through early February with a continuation of the generally cold conditions. This will bring spells of rain and hill snow, interspersed by showery interludes, with a continued risk of snow to lower levels, especially in the north. As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frost, however there remains some uncertainty. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder interludes, bringing a risk of more significant snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

A repeat of the forecasts starting in December...Jam tomorrow....

"As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds"

They seem bullish about this...Maybe eventually winter will arrive 

And the "Stopped Clock Award" for 2019 goes to.....

 

 

December 14: Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

December 18: Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds.

December 21: Then, further into January, most probably becoming colder and drier than normal, with an increased likelihood of easterly winds.

December 24: By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period.

December 31: By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 3: Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 7: As the rest of the month progresses and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather to become established generally, which will bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 9: During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold conditions being established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frost, especially in the north.

January 13: For the end of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK, with temperatures continuing a downward trend to become cold or very cold.

January 21: As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds.

 

 

You've got to give them credit for persistence. However many times the weather proves them wrong they are not giving up.  

 

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Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jan 2019 to Monday 4 Feb 2019:

Changeable on Saturday with rain and hill snow clearing southeastwards, to leave a brighter and showery picture for the remainder of the weekend. Showers will be of a wintry mix with snow possible at lower levels, particularly in the north and it will be windy with coastal gales probable in the north and west. Thereafter, the final few days of January and early February are likely to remain rather unsettled with brisk winds, outbreaks of rain and hill snow, as well as some showery interludes in between. It will remain cold for most with widespread overnight frosts as well as the risk of ice. Snow remains a possibility to lower levels, particularly in the north.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2019:

The weather will continue to be mixed through early February with a continuation of the generally cold conditions. This will bring spells of rain and hill snow, interspersed by showery interludes, with a continued risk of snow to lower levels, especially in the north. As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frost, however there remains some uncertainty. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder interludes, bringing a risk of more significant snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Winters coming. 😂😂😂😂

And the "Stopped Clock Award" for 2019 goes to.....

 

 

December 14: Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

December 18: Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds.

December 21: Then, further into January, most probably becoming colder and drier than normal, with an increased likelihood of easterly winds.

December 24: By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period.

December 31: By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 3: Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 7: As the rest of the month progresses and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather to become established generally, which will bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 9: During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold conditions being established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frost, especially in the north.

January 13: For the end of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK, with temperatures continuing a downward trend to become cold or very cold.

January 21: As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds.

 

 

You've got to give them credit for persistence. However many times the weather proves them wrong they are not giving up.  

 

And since Xmas with exceptions to the easterlies or north easterlies they have been right. As we have now made it to mid January it clearly is cold and there is the risk of snow for some, and as we head out towards the end of the month it looks likely to remain cold with the risk of snow for some. For us in the South it just looks like being a mix of cold frosty days and milder wet spells.

They have never said it will only that its an increased likelihood.

Watching the Met Office weather forecast by Alex Deakin - Notice the snow showers behind the front look more frequent or potent compared to the BBC precipitation graphics which show little if any wintry showers for tomorrow:

 I would say the Met Office have it right? - what would you say?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-iwmmxnDz0

 

 

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