After looking at this mornings model run and seeing the posts of those with far more knowledge than me, is the only sure trend I have noticed in all of the years of viewing this forum, is whenever the long range forecast gets updated in a positive way for cold and snow, exactly the opposite appears to evolve....

Exactly - which then begs the question - are the longer range model output worth taking any notice if the shorter range models like the GFS keep flip flopping even at 4/5 days out?

Meanwhile back on topic the Online Weather for week ahead has been updated:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

 

Exactly - which then begs the question - are the longer range model output worth taking any notice if the shorter range models like the GFS keep flip flopping even at 4/5 days out?

Meanwhile back on topic the Online Weather for week ahead has been updated:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

 

And that was issued at 1000- still going for Ely/ anticyclonic with very low temperatures.

 

And that was issued at 1000- still going for Ely/ anticyclonic with very low temperatures.

I wonder how the Met Office update will go later today following yesterday's update and the fact they have said quite clearly that it will stay cold until the end of January for a while now.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Jan 2019 to Friday 1 Feb 2019:

The latter half of next week looks to stay cold or very cold, with frosts likely most nights. There may be cloud, rain and hill snow perhaps on Wednesday or Thursday, but thereafter turning brighter with showers. These will feed in from eastern coasts, but are likely to bring sleet or snow for some. There is a small chance of a weather system approaching the northwest over the weekend, which could bring significant amounts of snow on meeting the cold air. However, this is still very uncertain and it is best to stay up to date with the latest forecast. It will stay cold until the end of January with spells of rain, sleet and snow at times. However, some drier and brighter interludes are still likely, with overnight frost.

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Feb 2019 to Saturday 16 Feb 2019:

The cold weather will continue as we head through the first half of February. There is a greater risk of seeing snow at lower levels as well as on the hills. Some drier and brighter periods are possible in the northwest, but in the south there is a chance of weather fronts approaching which bring a risk of rain, sleet and perhaps significant snow at times.

Updated: 00:45 on Sat 19 Jan 2019 GMT

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers, the showers giving rain or snow and most frequent in the north and northeast. It looks breezy on Thursday perhaps with coastal gales in the south and east, although winds should ease on Friday. Widespread locally severe night frosts are also likely. Later on Friday, rain preceded by snow may arrive in the far west and northwest, accompanied by strengthening winds. During the weekend and following week a lot of fine weather is expected with the chance of some wintry showers. Staying cold or very cold, with widespread frost. However, some wet and windy weather is likely in the northwest, which may briefly spread further southeast giving some snow on encountering the colder air.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Feb 2019 to Sunday 17 Feb 2019:

The northwest of the British Isles may see changeable conditions at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, it should become drier, brighter but colder here as the period unfolds. Meanwhile further southeast some bright, quiet periods are expected but with some wintry showers too, the detail of which is very uncertain. It is likely to be cold or very cold, and as a result widespread, locally severe frosts are on the cards. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder, wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring an associated risk of significant snow and ice at times.

So theme continues of cold with north westerly fronts and then longer term becoming even colder with higher snow chances as time moves on. Take that anytime.
Martin

If it actually happens   but we know from what we have seen this morning, and our battle hardened experience, that barring miracles next weekend will NOT be cold/very cold.

Have the Met Office got this recent update wrong? Unless I am mistaken or missing something they are continuing with the cold theme for the foreseeable future . Someone please explain who is right as I really respect the experts on this forum

You'll have to wait and see. Why can't people accept uncertainty and probability?

Have the Met Office got this recent update wrong? Unless I am mistaken or missing something they are continuing with the cold theme for the foreseeable future . Someone please explain who is right as I really respect the experts on this forum

Updates often seem a cut and paste job at weekends and I think they are just waiting for confirmation from the 12z/0z runs before changing to an Atlantic based outlook for next weekend.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers, the showers giving rain or snow and most frequent in the north and northeast. It looks breezy on Thursday perhaps with coastal gales in the south and east, although winds should ease on Friday. Widespread locally severe night frosts are also likely. Later on Friday, rain preceded by snow may arrive in the far west and northwest, accompanied by strengthening winds. During the weekend and following week a lot of fine weather is expected with the chance of some wintry showers. Staying cold or very cold, with widespread frost. However, some wet and windy weather is likely in the northwest, which may briefly spread further southeast giving some snow on encountering the colder air.

I would expect a very cold air stream to bring snow in January. Rain or snow is a tad odd. 

Edit: Shouldn't it be air stream? 

Have the Met Office got this recent update wrong? Unless I am mistaken or missing something they are continuing with the cold theme for the foreseeable future . Someone please explain who is right as I really respect the experts on this forum

The most important point to note is that the experts have access to far more information than is made public and they're far more qualified to interpret that information.

The second point is that beyond around five days the professionals don't rely on the operational output and they don't react (overreact) to every computer run.  The ensemble outputs have been consistent in showing predominantly colder weather: the forecasts reflect the strong likelihood of cold weather with the risk of some very cold weather, in line with the ensembles that we can see.

If the Met Office is holding to its forecast then it's because that's what the model output is suggesting is most likely.  There are very very few amateurs with the same level of skill and knowledge.

 

If it actually happens   but we know from what we have seen this morning, and our battle hardened experience, that barring miracles next weekend will NOT be cold/very cold.

 

Well, according to the MetO forecast above, which is given twice to emphasise the point  the MetO are not so easily cowed by wobbles in the models as- well, as the more fickle view. Good leadership that- indecision is worse than being wrong. 

 

Updates often seem a cut and paste job at weekends and I think they are just waiting for confirmation from the 12z/0z runs before changing to an Atlantic based outlook for next weekend.

 

So, there's nobody with any knowledge working at weekends?

I would expect a very cold airstream to bring snow in January. Rain or snow is a tad odd. 

You have obviously never been in Aberdeen in a “cold” winter easterly where rain is as likely snow.

 

You'll have to wait and see. Why can't people accept uncertainty and probability?

 

In fairness you have a valid point ! Noted

 

Updates often seem a cut and paste job at weekends and I think they are just waiting for confirmation from the 12z/0z runs before changing to an Atlantic based outlook for next weekend.

 

This guy writes them, why don't you ask him?

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1086605889208020993?s=19

 

So, there's nobody with any knowledge working at weekends?

If it is organised anything like the NHS then no. Have you ever tried to get answers to seemingly urgent medical questions when a close relative is in hospital? I have found the nurses have always seem bemused that I should think this is even possible! Sorry O/T

 

This guy writes them, why don't you ask him?

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1086605889208020993?s=19

 

Is he a coldie then?