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Offline marco 79  
#41 Posted : 05 March 2019 10:00:41(UTC)
marco 79

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Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

Spotless days

Current Stretch: 30 days

2019 total: 45 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 02 Mar 2019

longest stretch of days without any visible sunspots during last century was way back in 1913 (92days)..correct me if I'm wrong I think the last minimum (08/09) produced a run of 52 days...be interesting how long we can run this minimum....

Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#42 Posted : 06 March 2019 12:31:40(UTC)
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I'm quite excited to see how long we can run but more excited by the spot that ends the spotless run?

Will it be a Cycle 25 spot or a throw back to last cycle?

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline mikeelle  
#43 Posted : 06 March 2019 19:19:10(UTC)
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Well you didn't have to wait long... New Sunspot today (AR2734) has just shown up in the Northern Hemisphere!

It has a strange looking magnetic field so it is unclear from that if it is from Solar Cycle 24 or 25. If you look at the image below, you can see the new sunspots' magnetic poles are orientated nort south as opposed to east west:

I would suggest that it is from cycle 24 as it at quite a low latitude. Sunspots from new solar cycles start at high latitude and work their way to low latitude as the cycle progresses as can be seen if you look at the solar cycle's butterfly diagram:

 

 

 

Offline Jim_AFCB  
#44 Posted : 11 March 2019 12:39:57(UTC)
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Yes, 2734 is from Cycle 24.

For those who don't look at http://www.solen.info/solar/ on a regular basis.. there have been Cycle 25 spots appearing in more high-res images than is normally reported by SILSO (even when the official sunspot number has been reported as zero).

This is happening with increasing frequency now (see http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html) and I would think by later this year this will start to feed into less in the way of spotless days as the regions become larger and last longer.

This gives me greater confidence that solar minimum is likely to turn out to be Q4 2018 or perhaps Q1 2019.

Edited by user 12 March 2019 07:25:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#45 Posted : 13 March 2019 10:28:17(UTC)
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Found this interesting , if not a little disconcerting !

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47536271

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline marco 79  
#46 Posted : 13 March 2019 14:21:19(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

Found this interesting , if not a little disconcerting !

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47536271

What's more a repeat of the Carrington event of 1859, would seriously damage a large part of todays electrical technological infrastructure

Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#47 Posted : 13 March 2019 14:56:15(UTC)
Gray-Wolf

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Originally Posted by: marco 79 Go to Quoted Post

What's more a repeat of the Carrington event of 1859, would seriously damage a large part of todays electrical technological infrastructure

At least our space hardware would give us up to 3 days notice before they fried?

I'd read , some time ago , the notion that apart from the electrical wrap around that the solar cycle represents that there is a deeper buried , and much longer, grand cycle?

Could the maunder mins be the 'low' of such a cycle and these massive activity periods ( 660 BC/700's AD) represent the top of those cycles?

So a roughly 700 yrs leg from max to min  with christs birth being in a 'maunder type min' after the 660 BC max? We then had the 700's AD 'peak' and then followed by the maunder Min.

At least that gives us some hundreds of years to figure it out before the next 'long cycle' max?

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#48 Posted : 22 March 2019 12:24:30(UTC)
Gray-Wolf

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Two sunspots, solar flux up to 80 and an ongoing geomagnetic storm.....

Is the sun waking from a very stunted min?

By Sept we will have our answer as cycle 25 spots will either increase in their numbers (whilst the solar flux begins to rise) or they won't?

It will be interesting either way I reckon!

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline Jim_AFCB  
#49 Posted : 26 March 2019 14:06:10(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

Two sunspots, solar flux up to 80 and an ongoing geomagnetic storm.....

Is the sun waking from a very stunted min?

By Sept we will have our answer as cycle 25 spots will either increase in their numbers (whilst the solar flux begins to rise) or they won't?

It will be interesting either way I reckon!

 

This activity is from Cycle 24.

 

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#50 Posted : 06 April 2019 13:08:40(UTC)
Gray-Wolf

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https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle

April 5, 2019 - Scientists charged with predicting the Sun’s activity for the next 11-year solar cycle say that it’s likely to be weak, much like the current one. The current solar cycle, Cycle 24, is declining and predicted to reach solar minimum - the period when the Sun is least active - late in 2019 or 2020.

 

So solar min not before July 2019 but not later than 2020?

That's not going to be the extended min some in here are on about? Maybe the fact it'll be another skinny cycle will cheer them?

I guess this wont though;

“The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24   means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

Edited by user 06 April 2019 13:11:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline KevBrads1  
#51 Posted : 08 April 2019 19:06:10(UTC)
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Sunspot visible on solar disc

 

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#52 Posted : 09 April 2019 10:09:42(UTC)
Gray-Wolf

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I am beginning to believe that we are either at rock bottom of solar min (and ready to begin 25?) or we are already slowly increasing in sunspot numbers so 25 is now taking control and by Sept we will be able to both see it and confidently call it?

As my last post highlighted this could also be signalling the bottoming our of the reduction in cycle size and so 26 ,27 ,28 will show ever larger cycles?

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline Solar Cycles  
#53 Posted : 09 April 2019 10:22:25(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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This is the site to follow

http://www.solarham.net/

Offline doctormog  
#54 Posted : 09 April 2019 10:30:21(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post
This is the site to follow

http://www.solarham.net/

Indeed SC and it beats evidence-free “predictions”. 

This part was especially interesting in their outlook for the next cycle:

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. “The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24   means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle?fbclid=IwAR1rG9yCItKzY8xnQzDbvms66ErvmjTLlGwcYoFBndv_C_Dae2soy1osQE8 

Aberdeen
Offline Solar Cycles  
#55 Posted : 09 April 2019 11:44:20(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post

 

Indeed SC and it beats evidence-free “predictions”. 

This part was especially interesting in their outlook for the next cycle:

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. “The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24   means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle?fbclid=IwAR1rG9yCItKzY8xnQzDbvms66ErvmjTLlGwcYoFBndv_C_Dae2soy1osQE8 

Indeed, though I was rather hoping for a Maunder type event purely from a selfish winter perspective. 😎

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#56 Posted : 09 April 2019 13:55:20(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

Indeed, though I was rather hoping for a Maunder type event purely from a selfish winter perspective. 😎

So , if we have levelled out in preparation for rises in activity of future cycles, does that mean warmer winters for our futures S.C.?

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline Solar Cycles  
#57 Posted : 09 April 2019 15:35:09(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

 

So , if we have levelled out in preparation for rises in activity of future cycles, does that mean warmer winters for our futures S.C.?

Why?

Offline Gandalf The White  
#58 Posted : 09 April 2019 16:02:28(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

Why?

Maybe for the same reason that certain people were giving for the increasing global temperatures in the last century?

Location: South Cambridgeshire

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Brexit: proof that you can fool people into making a stupid choice

Offline Solar Cycles  
#59 Posted : 09 April 2019 16:32:55(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

 

Maybe for the same reason that certain people were giving for the increasing global temperatures in the last century?

We all know the reason for Grays alleged innocent question.😉

Offline David M Porter  
#60 Posted : 09 April 2019 20:33:50(UTC)
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We'd best not go down that road in here, guys.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

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