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Offline Gandalf The White  
#21 Posted : 20 February 2019 12:43:03(UTC)
Gandalf The White

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Originally Posted by: Northern Sky Go to Quoted Post

 

Why's that SC? Not kept up with this at all.

It's based on a belief that we're heading down into a period of very low solar activity.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

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Brexit: proof that you can fool people into making a stupid choice

Offline Solar Cycles  
#22 Posted : 20 February 2019 12:43:31(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

 

There is an established correlation between low sun spot and levels and increased incidence of cold winters. That doesn't guarantee cold weather but it enhances the chances, just like. Sudden stratospheric warming.

But I am puzzled by SC's belief in some upcoming 'fun and games' which has no basis whatsoever.

Like I’ve said many times before no one knows for sure what the future holds in anything in life but the chances of cold blocked winters increases with the above. That’s it. 

Offline Gandalf The White  
#23 Posted : 20 February 2019 12:46:34(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

Like I’ve said many times before no one knows for sure what the future holds in anything in life but the chances of cold blocked winters increases with the above. That’s it. 

Yes, that's exactly what I posed above. But that's light years away from your supposed 'fun and games'.

For someone who doesnt believe in computer modelling your belief in some upcoming remarkable period of cold winters is somewhat odd.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.2N 0.5E

Brexit: proof that you can fool people into making a stupid choice

Offline Solar Cycles  
#24 Posted : 20 February 2019 12:50:46(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes, that's exactly what I posed above. But that's light years away from your supposed 'fun and games'.

For someone who doesnt believe in computer modelling your belief in some upcoming remarkable period of cold winters is somewhat odd.

Cold & blocked winters equates to fun and games surely. 😎

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#25 Posted : 20 February 2019 13:13:20(UTC)
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I'm sorry S.C. but you have ignited genuine interest in what is to come from our sun from 2020?

The past decade has seen pushing the notion of the return of the 'Maunder like minimum' and the seeming early wind down in cycle 24 did lend credence to this until we suddenly saw another peak in activity develop?

This (relatively) normal length in solar min has taken me by surprise along with forecasts of a potentially stronger Cycle this time around than last. But then maybe I'd begun believing in this 'maunder like min' a tad too much?

As such , for me, there are only the unknown unknowns that could provide us with something ongoing in the sun from 2020 and by saying that would suggest that 'nobody knows' and so cannot be S.C.'s 'solar surprise'?

 

I know there is an awful lot about the working of our star yet for us to discover.

Folk theorise a second 'solar cycle' that is hundreds, if not thousands of years, in length involving the deeper levels of the churning ball of plasma, so we can't discount large and sudden changes in the sun's behaviour could occur but I do not know that we 'know' of any such event esp. now it's only a year away?

 

I get the feeling we will not be allowed to share on this one though.

 

Suffice to say I am shocked at this 'early' termination of Min ( I thought we had at least 3 more winters with it in full control?) and the forecast that this cycle will be larger than the last.

I will certainly be keeping my eye on the thread to see if, in 6 months or so, we are seeing regular cycle 25 spot hoving into view!

Edited by user 20 February 2019 13:15:42(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline Solar Cycles  
#26 Posted : 20 February 2019 13:39:12(UTC)
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I prefer to follow those in the know.

http://www.solarham.net

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#27 Posted : 20 February 2019 13:45:19(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post
I prefer to follow those in the know.

http://www.solarham.net

Thanks for the link S.C.! 

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline Gandalf The White  
#28 Posted : 20 February 2019 14:54:54(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post

Cold & blocked winters equates to fun and games surely. 😎

If they happen..... IF

Correlation doesn't equal certainty.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.2N 0.5E

Brexit: proof that you can fool people into making a stupid choice

Offline Gandalf The White  
#29 Posted : 20 February 2019 15:00:27(UTC)
Gandalf The White

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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post
I prefer to follow those in the know.

http://www.solarham.net

Yes, I know about that site. They don't do long term predictions, do they?

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.2N 0.5E

Brexit: proof that you can fool people into making a stupid choice

Offline Jim_AFCB  
#30 Posted : 20 February 2019 15:03:18(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Suffice to say I am shocked at this 'early' termination of Min ( I thought we had at least 3 more winters with it in full control?) and the forecast that this cycle will be larger than the last.

I will certainly be keeping my eye on the thread to see if, in 6 months or so, we are seeing regular cycle 25 spot hoving into view!

 

I must admit I was a little surprised when we had several spot regions from Cycle 25 appear as soon as August 2017. Based on a nominal 11 year solar cycle, I would not expected those for another year or so.

Having said that, the gap between the official solar minima in May 1996 and December 2008 was quite long, and I am wondering if the "true" solar minimum was perhaps a year earlier, at the end of 2007 and that it took C24 spots a looong time to appear meaning that the statistical minimum was delayed.

Who knows!

 

A good number to keep your eye on is the rolling daily 3-month solar flux mean at solen.info. When that starts to creep up through the 70's towards 80 then it should be clear that the new cycle is starting to get going.

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#31 Posted : 20 February 2019 15:33:17(UTC)
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Thanks for that Jim! ( and the link/advice) I too am at a loss over both the long low solar at last min but also the early ( to me) appearance of the first of the cycle 25 spots which , when I do a search, were being nattered about in 2016 as possibly arriving then!

The '11 year' time frame for a cycle is only an average though!

At least changes to the workings of the Sun can't be laid at mankind's doorstep!!!

*Just for Fun* If there were a 'long cycle' then the oddities we see in the 'normal cycle' might be signalling that something is altering in the deeper levels of the Sun and so playing with the E.M. field and its workings?

EDIT: Looking at the solar flux it appears it has been lower during the past months but that now it has been a few days up around 70?

Edited by user 20 February 2019 15:58:49(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline Jim_AFCB  
#32 Posted : 20 February 2019 17:01:05(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

Thanks for that Jim! ( and the link/advice) I too am at a loss over both the long low solar at last min but also the early ( to me) appearance of the first of the cycle 25 spots which , when I do a search, were being nattered about in 2016 as possibly arriving then!

The '11 year' time frame for a cycle is only an average though!

At least changes to the workings of the Sun can't be laid at mankind's doorstep!!!

*Just for Fun* If there were a 'long cycle' then the oddities we see in the 'normal cycle' might be signalling that something is altering in the deeper levels of the Sun and so playing with the E.M. field and its workings?

EDIT: Looking at the solar flux it appears it has been lower during the past months but that now it has been a few days up around 70?

Yes, there was a spot group reported in late 2016 which was thought to be from C25, but I very much doubt it was. It had reversed polarity (compared with C24 spots) but you do get the odd spot group with reversed polarity like that throughout the cycle.

Solar flux - it's been hovering mostly just under 70, occasionally a little above. The 90-day mean around 68.4 currently.

It's to be noted that the large number of days we had in the last minimum where the solar flux was at 66 or below have not been present this time.. I'll elaborate more on that at some point, but this minimum so far has not been quite as deep as the last one.

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#33 Posted : 20 February 2019 17:16:02(UTC)
Gray-Wolf

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Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes, there was a spot group reported in late 2016 which was thought to be from C25, but I very much doubt it was. It had reversed polarity (compared with C24 spots) but you do get the odd spot group with reversed polarity like that throughout the cycle.

Solar flux - it's been hovering mostly just under 70, occasionally a little above. The 90-day mean around 68.4 currently.

It's to be noted that the large number of days we had in the last minimum where the solar flux was at 66 or below have not been present this time.. I'll elaborate more on that at some point, but this minimum so far has not been quite as deep as the last one.

If the folk 'seeing' a connection between cold and low solar are right then it might explain just what levels of 'low solar' are needed to bring about a good chance of cold?

Maybe they need say 'low solar with a flux that goes lower than 66'?

Whilst scrambling around other places looking for cycle 25 'gossip' I came across a study;

https://www.archyworldys.com/researchers-find-evidence-of-a-new-fundamental-constant-of-the-sun/

about a potential new 'constant' we discovered emanating from our star and potentially impacting solar wind speeds? It also seems possible that the discovery will help us understand other stars better from its unique 'constant'?

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline Maunder Minimum  
#34 Posted : 20 February 2019 19:14:43(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes, there was a spot group reported in late 2016 which was thought to be from C25, but I very much doubt it was. It had reversed polarity (compared with C24 spots) but you do get the odd spot group with reversed polarity like that throughout the cycle.

Solar flux - it's been hovering mostly just under 70, occasionally a little above. The 90-day mean around 68.4 currently.

It's to be noted that the large number of days we had in the last minimum where the solar flux was at 66 or below have not been present this time.. I'll elaborate more on that at some point, but this minimum so far has not been quite as deep as the last one.

Early days yet - we are only just at the start of this minimum and it started earlier than usual following the peak as well.

Let's review the solar flux in another six months or so.

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Offline Jim_AFCB  
#35 Posted : 21 February 2019 07:13:29(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum Go to Quoted Post

 

Early days yet - we are only just at the start of this minimum and it started earlier than usual following the peak as well.

Let's review the solar flux in another six months or so.

 

The question is - are we at the start of the minimum phase?

Because we have been seeing new cycle spots for some 18 months now, (generally statistical minimum has been seen to pass about a year after first new cycle spots were observed), It is reasonable to think this minimum may well pass earlier than many expected... possibly Q4 2018 or Q1 2019, we will have to see.

 

Back to my thoughts that this minimum is not as deep as the last one.

There were 208 spotless days in 2018, compared with over 250 in both 2008 and 2009.

Solar flux wise.. the number of days with a very low flux level of 66 or less.. there were 81 such days in 2008.

In 2018.. there were just three, and none so far in 2019.

I have taken 2008 and 2018 as comparisons because of the timing of the first spots of the new cycle.. Jan 2008 and Aug 2017 respectively. Not an exact match timing wise, but close enough for a rough comparison.

 

There is a good article on solar minima here: http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless

 

 

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#36 Posted : 21 February 2019 12:11:29(UTC)
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Thanks again Jim for fetching ( some of us) up to speed!

As an aside I see now , after looking around a few places, why Brian had such reservations about the fate of this thread ? Though I did not know it there is a body of folk out there both hoping for a deep solar min but also looking to the sun for all their answers to the questions our planet is posing?

Sorry for being so ignorant Brian!

 

Back to cycle 25. I suppose if you use a 'normal' cycle as a guide you come to avery different conclusion as to 'where we are' than if we use cycle 24 as a guide?

I was aware of the solar min last time as it was widely talked about due to its length and the long stretches of 'spotless' days. This time I tend to favour Jim's ( and an increasing number of folk over on the 'astro threads of various outlets) that solar min is now drawing to a close and we should expect , later on in the year, to see solar flux again increase and many more cycle 25 spots arriving.

Again it might prove a wake up to some as to both how little we know of the complexities of the sun's behaviours but also how wide its 'natural variation, cycle to cycle, we see.

I think our generation has been blessed with the space hardware we now use to monitor the sun and the increasing knowledge it is bringing us.

 

Well that's the threads head well and truly wetted!

Lets now wait and see what the year brings us?

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline Jim_AFCB  
#37 Posted : 21 February 2019 12:54:24(UTC)
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You're welcome, G-W.

My interest in things solar isn't weather/climate related, but relate to radio conditions/propagation (I hold an amateur radio licence) and to space weather.
HF propagaion needs more sunspots to wake the ionosphere up, to make thing much more interesting.....

That link I posted shows two different groups of solar minima, one group have relatively short minima ( based on the "onset" of minimum being the 10th spotless day following solar max ) and the other with much more prolonged minima (such as the one 10 years ago).

This one would appear to be a member of the first group, given the appearance of new-cycle spot groups. One of the tables gives two forecasts for this minimum based on each of the two groups... one with a lower number of spotless days and a minimum of April 2018, the other with a much higher number of spotless days and a minimum of mid-2020. With the new-cycle spot groups, a minimum date of mid-2020 now looks most unlikely.
A min of April 2018 is now also not going to happen based on the most recent data.. IMHO is more likely to be Q4 2018 or perhaps Q1 2019.

One caveat. All the stats available come from a very tiny data set compared with even the last few thousand years, so one never knows if there is something around the corner to make my and others' posts and articles look very silly indeed.......

Edited by user 21 February 2019 12:55:51(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

Offline Gandalf The White  
#38 Posted : 21 February 2019 14:06:04(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB Go to Quoted Post

You're welcome, G-W.

My interest in things solar isn't weather/climate related, but relate to radio conditions/propagation (I hold an amateur radio licence) and to space weather.
HF propagaion needs more sunspots to wake the ionosphere up, to make thing much more interesting.....

That link I posted shows two different groups of solar minima, one group have relatively short minima ( based on the "onset" of minimum being the 10th spotless day following solar max ) and the other with much more prolonged minima (such as the one 10 years ago).

This one would appear to be a member of the first group, given the appearance of new-cycle spot groups. One of the tables gives two forecasts for this minimum based on each of the two groups... one with a lower number of spotless days and a minimum of April 2018, the other with a much higher number of spotless days and a minimum of mid-2020. With the new-cycle spot groups, a minimum date of mid-2020 now looks most unlikely.
A min of April 2018 is now also not going to happen based on the most recent data.. IMHO is more likely to be Q4 2018 or perhaps Q1 2019.

One caveat. All the stats available come from a very tiny data set compared with even the last few thousand years, so one never knows if there is something around the corner to make my and others' posts and articles look very silly indeed.......

Interesting reading, thanks.

I was aware that the maxima and minima were not clear cut events but didn't realise the extent of the 'uncertainty'.

I think you're much less likely to be left looking silly than those who are confidently predicting another grand minimum lasting many cycles but we will see (except we probably won't be around to see).

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.2N 0.5E

Brexit: proof that you can fool people into making a stupid choice

User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#39 Posted : 21 February 2019 14:48:41(UTC)
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Hi GTW!

I still remain unsure as to whether we did see a grand minimum or were just unable to see the levels of activity then occurring compared to today?

Our optics were far from perfect back then and we did not have the space hardware to supplement our ground based observations?

Then we have to think on the sites where measurements were taken and the impacts of any pollution on the ability to have an unobscured sun ( think of Some of the major chinese cities over the noughties and how often they got to see the sun?)

We also need factor in the growing forcing from that orbital forcing over the far north? Were we more prone to seeing snow retention on the north of mountains now snow free every summer? So any 'impacts we ascribe to the 'Maunder Min' may be far more complex and convoluted than just a change in the solar output/sunspot activity?

If our sun is not one for great swings in its output then the energy arriving at the top of our atmosphere is nearly constant over time?

Things like major volcanic events (that introduce sulphates into our strat) are shown to alter the amount of that energy , arriving at the top of our atmosphere, that is able to reach the surface below and so enter into the climate system and so , like with Pinatubo , we see a period of cooling associated with the event?

Due to other matters we have been taking records of the amount of energy that arrives at the very top of our atmosphere and it does not vary by anything like the same degree as the energy that eventually finds its way to the surface?

Anyway, we will see what we will see but I ,for one, will be keeping an eye on both spot numbers and blank periods and to any changes to the solar flux over the coming year!

By all accounts by this time next year we will know whether we are indeed into cycle 25.

Edited by user 21 February 2019 14:51:09(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Offline KevBrads1  
#40 Posted : 02 March 2019 07:56:11(UTC)
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Spotless days

Current Stretch: 30 days

2019 total: 45 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 02 Mar 2019

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

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