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Offline Jim_AFCB  
#1 Posted : 07 March 2018 20:16:38(UTC)
Jim_AFCB

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Posts: 526

I have seen a number of comments on social media and on various weather fora about the "fact" that we are entering a long deep solar minimum, and therefore we can expect more cold spells like the one we just had.


 


Couple of things. I gather that there has been some research that points to slightly increased northern blocking at solar minimum.


Against that, I can point to plenty of cold spells that have occurred at times of high solar activity. For example - 1947, 1978/9, 1981/2, 1991, and, more recently, 2013.


 


This solar minimum. I strongly believe that this solar minimum will not be as deep or as prolonged as the last one centred on 2008. Here's why:


WE are already starting to see sunspot regions at high latitude and with reversed polarity compared with the current one. The first such region may have been in December 2016, and certainly they have appeared from time to time since last August. Relative to the downward curve in the solar cycle, new cycle spots are appearing earlier this time compared with the minimum of Cycle 23/24.


Solar activity has now dropped to genuine solar minimum levels, with flux levels frequently in the high 60s and low 70s in recent weeks and months.


It's true that the majority of solar activity at present is still coming from the old cycle,  but gradually new cycle regions appear in grerater numbers until they outstrip the old cycle and solar activity generally begins to rise again.


Generally, once the first new cycle spots start to appear, the solar minimum has subsequently turned out to have occurred within a year of this point.


Therefore, in my opinion after some 30 years of watching things "solar", solar minimum is likely to occur sometime this year, and we may well start to see Cycle 25 regions in greater numbers later this year.. but I could be completely wrong..  time will tell!


 

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries
Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.

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Offline Jim_AFCB  
#2 Posted : 19 February 2019 12:44:12(UTC)
Jim_AFCB

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I must be going mad... I am looking for the thread on solar cycle discussion and I cannot find it anywhere. Even my own posts on it have disappeared.

IT seems in recent weeks, Cycle 25 spot regions have begun to appear in increasing numbers (though still prertty low) and this month have outnumbered regions from the old cycle.
While my expectation that we would see new cycle spots appearing in greater numbers in Q4 of 2018 was not realised, maybe this is now starting to happen. If maintained, then it will likely turn out that the smoothed solar minimum will have been in 2nd half of/late 2018.

This would more or less fit in with the first spots being observed in Aug 2017 and the minimum being *about* a year later.


It is also worth noting that this minimum is not quite as deep as the last one ten years ago certainly in terms of solar flux.. we've not seen the extended spells of SFI of 65/66/67s of ten years ago this time - many days have seen SFI around the 70 mark, perhaps 1-2 points lower at times.

Edited by user 19 February 2019 12:48:45(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries
Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.
User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#3 Posted : 19 February 2019 13:43:02(UTC)
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The solar thread was over in the environment section?


Maybe the 'Science/Nature' thread is better suited for the thread now? ( pinned?)


 


If we have 'turned the corner' it has felt a much shorter solar min this time? The last one seemed to rumble on for ever with huge spans of spotless?


Should we see the cycle 25 spots now steadily increase in number then I would hope that all those predicting us falling into a maunder like minimum will take note?


I wonder if we will see a 'double dip' max in cycle 25 or whether that was a one off too?


 

Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
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Offline Jim_AFCB  
#4 Posted : 19 February 2019 13:50:10(UTC)
Jim_AFCB

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I did look on the science and nature forum... but nope, not there.


Like I said, looking at my own posts, my posts in that thread do not appear either.

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries
Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.
User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#5 Posted : 19 February 2019 14:02:02(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB Go to Quoted Post


I did look on the science and nature forum... but nope, not there.


Like I said, looking at my own posts, my posts in that thread do not appear either.



I'm sorry , I'm confusing you! The lost thread went out with the rest of the environment section so we need to set a new thread up.


Science and Nature seem like a good place for it to live if it could be pinned?

Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Offline johncs2016  
#6 Posted : 19 February 2019 14:11:50(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post


 


I'm sorry , I'm confusing you! The lost thread went out with the rest of the environment section so we need to set a new thread up.


Science and Nature seem like a good place for it to live if it could be pinned?



Of course, anybody can start that thread over on that forum but it is only either Brian or a mod who can then pin such a thread. Hopefully though, this is something which will at least be considered and since there is no longer a climate forum on this site, the science/nature forum would be a good place for that.


It would after all, be good to have pinned threads on that other forum (which would be one thread per subject) for discussing things like solar activity as well as for other important subjects such as what is happening in the ENSO region (La Nina/El Nino), in the same way in which there is the monthly and annual pinned CET threads on this forum.


 

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS
EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)
Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)
Altitude: 57m above mean sea level
EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)
Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)
Altitude: 33m above mean sea level
ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)
Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)
Altitude: 26m above mean sea level
Offline Jim_AFCB  
#7 Posted : 19 February 2019 14:12:48(UTC)
Jim_AFCB

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Ah. Something happened to the environment section? I guess I missed that happening.


I'll start a new thread in Science and Nature at some point summarizing where we arewith some useful links etc.

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries
Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.
User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#8 Posted : 19 February 2019 14:26:03(UTC)
Gray-Wolf

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Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB Go to Quoted Post


Ah. Something happened to the environment section? I guess I missed that happening.


I'll start a new thread in Science and Nature at some point summarizing where we arewith some useful links etc.



Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#9 Posted : 19 February 2019 18:00:37(UTC)
Gray-Wolf

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Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB Go to Quoted Post


Ah. Something happened to the environment section? I guess I missed that happening.


I'll start a new thread in Science and Nature at some point summarizing where we arewith some useful links etc.



I approached Brian over the matter but he says 'No' to a new thread down in Sci/Nat.


He voiced concerns over it turning into a climate change debate.

Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Offline Jim_AFCB  
#10 Posted : 19 February 2019 20:38:28(UTC)
Jim_AFCB

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Posts: 526

Ah, ok.


Could always be posted with the proviso that it would be strictly solar cycle related and anything off topic including climate change could be removed, but guessing that's not an option either.


I'd best not bother :)


 

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries
Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.
Offline johncs2016  
#11 Posted : 19 February 2019 21:23:37(UTC)
johncs2016

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Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB Go to Quoted Post


Ah, ok.


Could always be posted with the proviso that it would be strictly solar cycle related and anything off topic including climate change could be removed, but guessing that's not an option either.


I'd best not bother :)


 



I agree with that, I wouldn't exactly enjoy having my account deleted as a result after all.


 

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS
EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)
Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)
Altitude: 57m above mean sea level
EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)
Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)
Altitude: 33m above mean sea level
ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)
Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)
Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)
Altitude: 26m above mean sea level
Online Brian Gaze  
#12 Posted : 19 February 2019 21:25:53(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

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Posts: 46,257

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 Go to Quoted Post


 


I agree with that, I wouldn't exactly enjoy having my account deleted as a result after all.


 



It's not a painful process I can assure you. Sadly the demise of climate related discussion on TWO is a result of a few members who couldn't behave in a civil manor. 


PS: I'll move this thread to the science forum.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#13 Posted : 20 February 2019 10:39:28(UTC)
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3


"The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability of atmospheric circulation outside of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. To understand and attribute this mode of variability is of great societal relevance for populated regions in Eurasia. It has been widely claimed that there is a robust signal of the nearly periodic 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, which thereby raises the possibility of using the solar cycle to predict the circulation years in advance. Here we present evidence that contradicts this claim."


 


In some ways knowing we are already seeing cycle 25 spots this change in understanding becomes less important but I ,for one, went into winter thinking that low sunspot numbers/low solar gave us a greater chance of seeing blocked conditions to our north and give us some cold easterly feeds  (as we appeared to see over last low solar?).


Seeing this study leaves me flat esp. after last low solar brought us 09/10 winter and also the cold snaps clustered around the years covering low solar....apparently just a coincidence ..... bah!


 


After reading the report on the increase in the number of cycle 25 spots being recorded I have to accept that low solar is now ending and so look forward to seeing spots begin to increasingly appear over this coming year.


As for cycle 25? Some folk are saying it will be similar , possibly stronger, than cycle 24 and take us out to 2030.

Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Offline Solar Cycles  
#14 Posted : 20 February 2019 10:43:36(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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2020 onwards is when the fun and games should start....... itโ€™s a case of watch this space until then.
User is suspended until 31/01/2293 12:26:49(UTC) Gray-Wolf  
#15 Posted : 20 February 2019 11:26:49(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post
2020 onwards is when the fun and games should start....... it’s a case of watch this space until then.


What are you expecting that we are missing S.C.?


By 2020 the sunspots will be returning with increasing number and vigour but we've been there before and saw not much going on?


My take has only included 2 worries over the solar cycle;


1/ cold weather through solar Min ( now debunked )


2/ issues from solar storms over high solar impacting transmission grids on earth and messing with comm's sats ( but if we are heading for a 'maunder like min' surely this threat also recedes some?)


 


What else have we been measuring that I have not seen and what impacts have been proven to have links to those behaviours?

Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Offline Solar Cycles  
#16 Posted : 20 February 2019 12:30:39(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post


 


What are you expecting that we are missing S.C.?


By 2020 the sunspots will be returning with increasing number and vigour but we've been there before and saw not much going on?


My take has only included 2 worries over the solar cycle;


1/ cold weather through solar Min ( now debunked )


2/ issues from solar storms over high solar impacting transmission grids on earth and messing with comm's sats ( but if we are heading for a 'maunder like min' surely this threat also recedes some?)


 


What else have we been measuring that I have not seen and what impacts have been proven to have links to those behaviours?


Nothing's be debunked as it’s been mentioned on here from various people including myself that 2020 is when things get interesting. You won’t have long to wait now. ๐Ÿ˜‰

Offline Jim_AFCB  
#17 Posted : 20 February 2019 12:39:28(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post


 


What are you expecting that we are missing S.C.?


By 2020 the sunspots will be returning with increasing number and vigour but we've been there before and saw not much going on?


My take has only included 2 worries over the solar cycle;


1/ cold weather through solar Min ( now debunked )


2/ issues from solar storms over high solar impacting transmission grids on earth and messing with comm's sats ( but if we are heading for a 'maunder like min' surely this threat also recedes some?)


 


What else have we been measuring that I have not seen and what impacts have been proven to have links to those behaviours?



1. I have seen (and posted in the past) that we have seen different types of winter weather under both solar mina nd solar max. e.g Winter of 74/5 very mild near solar minimum, and winter 78/9 and 81/2 near solar maximum. There may be some correlation between the amount of northern blocking and sunspot activity, but I don't think it is strong.


2. The really big solar storms mostly gave Cycle 24 a bit of a miss.. they are much less likely during quieter solar cycles on the basis of probability but can never be ruled out completely. The storm of February 1986 is a case in point - during that solar minimum there was a sudden flare from a spot group and the resulting CME was pretty geoeffective!


 


IMHO a Maunder-like minimum this time is NOT underway.The arrivial of Cycle 25 spot regions on (or perhaps slightly ahead of) schedule would appear to suggest such.


Also, the strength of the polar magnetic fields during this minimum hve been slightly higher than ten years ago.. there is very strong evidence that the strength of these fields at solar min is a very good indicator of the strength of the subsequent maximum.


See here: http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html


On that basis, it looks likely (and this is reflected in various forecasts) that Cycle 25 will be roughly equal, perhaps slightly stronger, than Cycle 24.


 

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries
Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here.
Offline Northern Sky  
#18 Posted : 20 February 2019 12:40:17(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post
2020 onwards is when the fun and games should start....... it’s a case of watch this space until then.


Why's that SC? Not kept up with this at all.

Offline Gandalf The White  
#19 Posted : 20 February 2019 12:41:38(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post


 


What are you expecting that we are missing S.C.?


By 2020 the sunspots will be returning with increasing number and vigour but we've been there before and saw not much going on?


My take has only included 2 worries over the solar cycle;


1/ cold weather through solar Min ( now debunked )


2/ issues from solar storms over high solar impacting transmission grids on earth and messing with comm's sats ( but if we are heading for a 'maunder like min' surely this threat also recedes some?)


 


What else have we been measuring that I have not seen and what impacts have been proven to have links to those behaviours?



There is an established correlation between low sun spot and levels and increased incidence of cold winters. That doesn't guarantee cold weather but it enhances the chances, just like. Sudden stratospheric warming.


But I am puzzled by SC's belief in some upcoming 'fun and games' which has no basis whatsoever.

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Offline Solar Cycles  
#20 Posted : 20 February 2019 12:42:08(UTC)
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Even during the LIA periods of mild/hot/stormy weather occurred, it isn’t the onset of the next ice age. This thread is in danger of turning into another climate thread and I’d hate that to happen.

Hopefully Brian will step in and keep things on track.

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