UK Outlook for Monday 6 Aug 2018 to Wednesday 15 Aug 2018:
Much of this period looks likely that high pressure will continue to dominate across much of the UK. However, it will be cloudier in the north and perhaps west at times, with the possibility of some showery rain in places. Elsewhere looks mainly dry and bright, with plenty of sunny spells and any early mist or fog patches quickly dispersing. Away from the northwest, temperatures will be above the seasonal average for many, and it will be very warm, if not hot, in the south, which may lead to the development of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms. Thereafter, a gradual decline in temperatures is generally expected, though it is likely to remain warmer than average in most places away from any more unsettled spells.

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Aug 2018 to Thursday 30 Aug 2018:
For the latter half of August, slowly changing weather patterns are most likely. This means that drier and warmer than average conditions are the most probable overall. Short unsettled interludes are also possible however, and these are most likely in the south, with a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. The north and northwest may also possibly be affected by occasional wet and cloudier conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or perhaps even hot conditions probable, especially in the south.

Updated: 14:32 on Wed 1 Aug 2018 BST


A decline in temperatures towards the middle of the month, but still warm. And they haven't changed their thoughts about more potential hot spells in the second half (at least not yet).

Possibly an indication of more plume synoptics

Met Office 10 day trend video:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/videos/5816628561001

Reasonably confident of a cool down for all later next week after heat and a messy transition in the south.

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Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Aug 2018 to Thursday 16 Aug 2018:

Looking ahead into next week, Tuesday and Wednesday will be a mixed bag with changeable conditions likely. There will be some hot and sunny weather around in places, but this will also bring the risk of some heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms. Following that, as we look ahead to the middle of August, some weather systems may bring cloudier skies, and at times wet and windy conditons. These are likely to be followed by drier and brighter interludes though, especially in the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be hot in the southeast to begin with, but as we head into the middle of the month, will return back nearer to average for the time of year.

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Aug 2018 to Friday 31 Aug 2018:

For the latter half of August, the weather is likely to become slightly more settled again. This means that drier and warmer than average conditions are the most probable. There may be some short, unsettled spells of rain, and these are most likely in the south, with a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. However, the north and northwest may also possibly be affected by occasional wet and cloudier conditions. Temperatures are expected to be around normal for the time of year around the middle of the month, but there is a chance of hot conditions at times towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Weatheronline

High pressure September

Not much change for October

Issued: Friday 27th July 2018
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

*September

The month is expected to be starting warm and dry.
Above average temperatures for many.
Rain could affect northern areas at times.
Southern parts remaining under a ridge of high pressure so dry overall.
watch for rain in west.
Remaining warm.

*October*

A warm month.
High pressure to the east overall.
Dry and warm, perhaps very warm in east.
Rain to the west, especially Ireland and western Scotland.
Only brief incursions of rain elsewhere.

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 8 Aug 2018 to Friday 17 Aug 2018:

Wednesday will bring mixed weather across the UK with changeable conditions likely. There is a risk of heavy thunderstorms in eastern areas first thing, but these will quickly clear away. Elsewhere, it will be cooler with a mixture of sunshine and showers. Blustery showers will be heaviest and most frequent across the north and west. As we look ahead to the middle of August, fresher conditions are likely across all parts with scattered showers continuing. Heavy and more persistent rain is possible at times, mainly in the north and west. Drier and brighter interludes are likely too though, especially in the southeast. Strong winds are possible for all areas, particularly in the north and west, and temperatures will generally be around average.

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Aug 2018 to Saturday 1 Sep 2018:

For the latter half of August, it is most likely that the weather will become slightly more settled again. This means that drier and warmer than average conditions are the most probable. There may be some short, unsettled spells of rain, and these are most likely in the south, with a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. However, the north and northwest may also possibly be affected by occasional wet and cloudier conditions. Temperatures are expected to be around normal for the time of year around the middle of the month, but there is a chance of hot conditions at times towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

July update

August to October

Temperature summary

For August-September-October as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for August-September-October will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 55% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-aso-v2.pdf 

Precipitation

For August-September-October as a whole, below-average precipitation is more likely than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for August-September-October will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 25% and 30% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-aso-v2.pdf 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-aso-v2.pdf 

Precipitation

For August-September-October as a whole, below-average precipitation is more likely than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for August-September-October will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 25% and 30% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-aso-v2.pdf

 Bodes well for a colder than average winter IMO. 😎

Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Aug 2018 to Saturday 18 Aug 2018:

Thursday will see a mixture of sunny spells and showers across the UK, with the most frequent showers in northern parts. There is a small chance of some heavy and perhaps thundery rain affecting some eastern parts before clearing on Friday. Western areas are expected to see thicker cloud and outbreaks of rain on Friday, these will then move east through the day. As we look ahead to the middle of August, fresher and changeable conditions are expected across all parts with spells of cloud and rain followed by brighter interludes with a few showers. The heaviest rain is likely in the northwest with the best of the drier weather in the southeast. Temperatures will be around average, though it will feel cool at in the northwest.

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Aug 2018 to Sunday 2 Sep 2018:

Changeable weather conditions are expected to persist through mid month with further cloud and rain at times. Rain is expected to be heaviest in the the northwest, with longer spells of drier weather further south and east. It will still be warm occasionally in the south but generally temperatures are expected to be around normal. Towards the end of the month there is an increasing chance of settled conditions redeveloping bringing a chance of very warm or hot temperatures, especially across southern parts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

The Sunday Telegraph weather correspondent in today's edition is convinced the warm/hot weather will return at some point after next weekend , I assume basing his views on the prevailing weather patterns of this summer. Interesting reading.

I can only assume the Met Office text forecast for here is an error for Tuesday. 'Tuesday mainly dry, bright and locally hot or very hot.'. Models show cooler air in place from the west , the Met Office automated forecasts go for a high of 20c, significantly cooler than recent days in line with most models.

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GFS shows 24/25C in Yorkshire on Tuesday, and Arpege shows 26/27C. For here, the Met Office show 23C with sunny spells and I would not be surprised to see that figure exceeded (as was the case today and most days). 

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But 'very hot' that would suggest 30c plus surely?
Met Office app shows 20c North Leeds, 23c York and 24c Doncaster. Unless they are completely overriding the computerised output but 850 temps look to be 10c at best and lowering from the west.

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Not sure what the definition of very hot would be.

Latest Arpege run actually shows 29C south of Leeds on Tuesday! 26-28C more widely. Perhaps it will be like Friday last week which was originally supposed to be cooler but then ended up being much hotter than originally forecast.

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Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Aug 2018 to Monday 20 Aug 2018:

The weekend starts on a changeable note, with spells of rain for much of the UK. The rain should clear to scattered showers later, these mostly across central and southern areas, and on Sunday drier conditions probably will begin to become established in the northwest. Strong winds on Saturday with a risk of gales in the west at first, become lighter during Sunday, and while temperatures will be generally close to normal, it may be rather warm at times in the southeast. Into the following week there is a trend towards drier, more settled conditions for many, although there is a chance of some showery rain mid-week. Looking further ahead, it will probably continue settled for many, though still with the risk of more changeable conditions at times.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Aug 2018 to Tuesday 4 Sep 2018:

Through the remainder of August generally settled conditions will probably continue for many, although with a risk of more generally changeable conditions at times. The drier conditions may become focussed over the northern half of the UK, whilst the south may have showers or thunderstorms at times. By early September there are signs that the weather pattern becomes increasingly slow moving, with settled conditions possibly becoming more widespread across the UK. Temperatures are likely to be above normal, and perhaps well above normal into the start of September.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Saturday 4 August—Sunday 12 August
Hot in the south, but cooler later in the week

In contrast to last weekend, high pressure will dominate the weather across the UK this weekend. This will mean that many areas will have a dry and fine day with good sunny periods on Saturday although it will be cloudier in northern Scotland, where a few spots of drizzle will fall in the west. Very warm in the south, with temperatures climbing close to 30C in London, but cooler with temperatures closer to average in the north and north-west. Similarly, Sunday will see another north-south split in the weather, with dry, generally sunny and hot weather expected for much of England and Wales once again.

Meanwhile, Scotland and Northern Ireland have a cloudier day with a few splashes of rain, while there is a risk of more widespread rain developing here overnight. Monday and Tuesday will see a shallow area of high pressure linger across England and Wales, while an increasingly hot airmass edges up from the south. Much of England will be very warm on both days, with temperatures likely to exceed 30C in London and southeast England.

In the north and west, it will generally be cloudier with a moist southwesterly airflow providing a little rain at times. Wednesday and Thursday will see a significant cool-down in the south as a strong cold front introduces a fresher airmass for all areas. Temperatures will drop close to average for all areas, with blustery showers developing in the north and west, where it will feel cool. The remainder of next week will see high pressure slowly move back across the UK from the southwest, bringing light westerly winds.

Some rain is likely across northern areas at times, while it will be drier and sunnier in the south and east, with temperatures climbing a little above normal.

Monday 13 August—Sunday 19 August
High pressure slowly returning

The first half of the following week will continue to see a steady westerly airflow, with high pressure lingering to the southwest of the UK. Temperatures should recover into the 20s Celsius for many areas, as milder airmasses move across the country from the west or southwest and light winds with strong sunshine become a feature during the days.

Later in the week, medium range weather model output suggests that high pressure will become more dominant right across the UK, most likely preventing any low-pressure areas from moving across the country from the west. Therefore, it is likely to remain largely dry and settled, and increasingly warm too, with the best of the warmth across central and eastern England.

Some patchy rain or a few showers may move into northwestern coasts of Britain at times, giving a cloudier and damp feel to the weather here. There are, however, some indications that deeper areas of low pressure could pass close to Scotland, pushing a much cooler northwesterly airflow across all areas, and giving the risk of more widespread showery and blustery conditions, particularly to northern and western parts.

Monday 20 August—Sunday 2 September
Low pressure makes little progress

During the last two weeks of August, it looks like pressure will remain relatively high, especially across the southern half of the UK, perhaps joining up with a high pressure area that is usually located to the southwest of the UK at this time of the year.

Therefore areas of low pressure bringing significant bouts of wind and rain, are expected to be kept at bay but there is always the risk that low pressure could linger to the west of the UK for a few days, pushing a hot and humid airmass towards the southeastern quarter of the country, bringing the risk of some thunderstorms too. Northern Britain will probably see more unsettled westerly interludes, with breezier and wetter weather at times, as low-pressure areas are expected to pass to the north of Scotland.

Mainly dry and settled conditions are expected in the south due to higher pressure. and more warm weather is anticipated with temperatures remaining slightly above average and winds generally light. There is a small risk that a deeper area of low pressure could develop close to the UK, bringing much windier, cooler and wetter weather to all areas - an early taste of Autumn for sure.

Next Update

As the summer holidays draw to a close, what can we expect from the forecast?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

UK hot weather could last until October, Met Office warns

The UK's hot weather could last until October, the Met Office has said.

In a briefing for local authorities it said above-average temperatures were more likely than below-average temperatures for the next three-month period.

Fresher, cooler temperatures are expected from the middle of this week, lasting throughout the weekend.

But the Met Office predictions suggest hot, dry conditions could return and continue into the autumn.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45085034?ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central