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Offline ARTzeman  
#141 Posted : 25 October 2017 10:29:57(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Originally Posted by: roger63 Go to Quoted Post

 

What figure are we shooting for to get anew record?Is it the 13.3 achieved in 2001?

Shooting downward by the end of the month with an oncoming cold blast.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#142 Posted : 25 October 2017 10:33:56(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Met Office Hadley           13.3c.         Anomaly        2.3c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                        13.12c.       Anomaly        2.61c.

Netweather                     13.57c,       Anomaly        3.18c.

Peasedown st john         13.6c.          Anomaly       3.00c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#143 Posted : 25 October 2017 12:13:24(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Back up for a couple of days- if we can get to 27th with the same CET, even a CET as low as 10C over the last 4 days will give a CET of 12.9C so there's still a chance of a 13- putting October amongst the top rankings.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Caz  
#144 Posted : 25 October 2017 18:51:54(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

What a tipsy turvy couple of months we’ve had. I wasn’t doing too badly up to August but took a slide last month due to over predicting and this month I’ve gone way too low. 

Still, I’m not complaining. At least the heating bills will benefit. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#145 Posted : 25 October 2017 20:39:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Don't forget to message GW with your CET for November and December..... 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline roger63  
#146 Posted : 26 October 2017 06:45:44(UTC)
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Location: Winchester,Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

What a tipsy turvy couple of months we’ve had. I wasn’t doing too badly up to August but took a slide last month due to over predicting and this month I’ve gone way too low. 

Still, I’m not complaining. At least the heating bills will benefit. 

Likewise CAZ-a rapid fall from top ten expected for me courtesy of being way too low in October!

Offline ARTzeman  
#147 Posted : 26 October 2017 10:07:08(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 26,064
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         13.3c.           Anomaly        2.3c.

Metcheck                      13.06c.         Anomaly        2.55c.

Netweather                   13.56c.         Anomaly        3.17c.

Peasedown  St John     13.5c.           Anomaly        3.1c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline roger63  
#148 Posted : 27 October 2017 09:25:00(UTC)
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Location: Winchester,Hampshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley         13.3c.           Anomaly        2.3c.

Metcheck                      13.06c.         Anomaly        2.55c.

Netweather                   13.56c.         Anomaly        3.17c.

Peasedown  St John     13.5c.           Anomaly        3.1c.   

Could the race for warmest come down to end of month adjustment.Any thoughts on whether an up or down adjustment is likely?

Offline Bertwhistle  
#149 Posted : 27 October 2017 10:36:39(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Originally Posted by: roger63 Go to Quoted Post

 

Could the race for warmest come down to end of month adjustment.Any thoughts on whether an up or down adjustment is likely?

GW could say for sure, but where high temps are concerned I seem to feel that they're more often adjusted down than up.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline ARTzeman  
#150 Posted : 27 October 2017 11:27:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley              13.2c.          Anomaly         2.3c.   Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                           12.97c.        Anomaly         2.46c.

Netweather                        13.54c.        Anomaly         3.11c.

Peasedown St John         13.5c.        Anomaly           3.1c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#151 Posted : 28 October 2017 11:13:28(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley             13.1c.            Anomaly       2.2c.   Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                          12.81c.            Anomaly       2.30c.

Netweather                       13.35c.            Anomaly       2.96c.

Peasedown St John          13.4c.             Anomaly          3.2c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#152 Posted : 28 October 2017 15:13:05(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Just looked back to the October CET Prediction chart.  Highest Prediction  is  12.20c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#153 Posted : 28 October 2017 15:15:05(UTC)
Bertwhistle

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Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,768
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Just looked back to the October CET Prediction chart.  Highest Prediction  is  12.20c.    

I think we'd all been stung by August and September, Art, a dizzy honeymoon from June!

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline ARTzeman  
#154 Posted : 29 October 2017 12:12:18(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            13.0c.          Anomaly          2.2c.  Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                          12.82c.        Anomaly            2.31c.

Netweather                       13.27c.        Anomaly            2.88c.

Peasedown St John           13.4c.          Anomaly           3.2c.        

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Bolty  
#155 Posted : 29 October 2017 18:08:28(UTC)
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Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl

Well I've totally cocked up my guess for October. I went for quite a cool 9.9C as I thought that was the way the month may have been heading right at the beginning, but in fact quite the opposite has happened.
Offline Stormchaser  
#156 Posted : 29 October 2017 18:58:33(UTC)
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Well at least nobody need feel foolish; if there's one thing this competition proves it's that it's not a reasonable expectation to be able to reliably predict a whole month in advance with an error of less than 1.5*C, although with a good bit of luck you might manage most of the months in one of the years.

Think of it this way for example; the change to chillier weather that we're now seeing could easily have taken place a week ago, in which case the CET movement would have been down instead of up, and we'd probably have finished somewhere in the 11s. 

Long-range guidance had it occurring around that time, but without it having been quite so balmy mid-month. Extremes like that are tough as nails to spot coming in advance although I'll admit that some experimental ways of looking at the MJO and Kelvin Waves do on reflection appear to give some suggestion of anomalously TM-orientated air flows across the UK. Even after more than a decade of increasingly intense involvement in meteorology, I'm still learning!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Caz  
#157 Posted : 29 October 2017 19:23:06(UTC)
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Looks like a month where every one of us went too high and I think we all went too high in September.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this year’s final table will be the one we all had the greatest prediction error. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Gusty  
#158 Posted : 29 October 2017 19:27:48(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Looks like a month where every one of us went too high and I think we all went too high in September.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this year’s final table will be the one we all had the greatest prediction error. 

Its been a tricky year 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Offline ARTzeman  
#159 Posted : 29 October 2017 22:13:04(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

What will the cool days of the last TWO days show..... How much alteration will it be to the end figure....  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Caz  
#160 Posted : 30 October 2017 06:47:49(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

 

Its been a tricky year 

It has indeed. I think the late Spring early Summer months were quite a bit above average and lulled me into a false sense of security.

I meant to say we all went too low in September of course. 

It makes it all the more difficult to anticipate the remaining two months. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

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