Metcheck                     12.52c.          Anomaly         2.01c.

Netweather                  13.28c.          Anomaly         2.89c.

Peasedown St John       13.1c.            Anomaly         3.5c.

Looking at the models this morning, I reckon I've gone far too low this month. Just can't get it right this year!

The upcoming warm spell will hurt my and many other people's guesses I'm sure but still plenty of time for a colder second half to bring the average down. Surely we can't make it 4 ridiculously warm Halloweens on the trot?? 

Looking at the models this morning, I reckon I've gone far too low this month. Just can't get it right this year!

You and me both! I was a big faller in September and it looks like i'm on a downward slide - still I love a warm October so bring it on.

Metcheck     12.42c.   Anomaly   1.91c.

Netweather  12.91c.   Anomaly   2.52c.

Peasedown St John   13.0c. Anomaly 2.6c.

A late 10.11C please. Think I missed a month or two though.

You have actually missed 3 months now so have dropped out of the annual competition for this year

Quite a spread of prediction dates these days (most understandably in the case of GW)... for what it's worth I'd probably have gone half a degree higher if I was putting up my entry now. 

Now just watch the output during the rest of this week swing mightily cold for late Oct  

My fault for being late with posting up the charts and not get the thread opened sooner. 

Will hopefully get things back to normal next month as I will have more time on my hands. 

Just a reminder for everyone - don't forget next month and for December the predictions will be made via PM to me rather than being posted in this thread.

You can make your prediction for November at any time before the end of October. You don't have to wait for the November thread to open. 

Here is the list of predictions for October

Oct CET predictions - list 1

Oct CET predictions - list 2

Just seen the list - Didn't realise how low I went for this month.

I've bollocksed this one.

Just seen the list - Didn't realise how low I went for this month.

I've bollocksed this one.

 

Well if you've bollocksed your's, then God knows what I've done to mine! 

Given no Hadley updates since 3rd Oct (terrible service), this is even looser than usual but for a general idea, using the ECM 00z as a base suggests the CET to be in the range of 12.7 to 13.1*C (somewhere near 1*C above the LTA) by the time Friday's done, and then 13.2 to 13.8*C to the end of Monday 16th (between roughly 1.5 and 2.0*C above the LTA).

The warmth on this run actually peaks Sunday for most and Monday in the south - in stark contrast to GFS which is pushing the plume away during Sunday and has a dry but fairly cool day for Monday. I've not got time to look at how that would affect things but at a guess we'd be 'only' between 1 an 1.5*C above the LTA to the end of Monday.

The weather sure seems to be pulling some sneaky moves; this run of warmth is from a pattern pretty much identical to what the late-Aug model output suggested was most likely for mid-Sep, which I was okay to go along with only for it to go AWOL until a less impressive version developed late-month... and now here we are with the fully-fledged version, after the late-Sep models showed little interest in such things .

Interestingly (or worryingly if you've gone near-average like me... let alone below average), even though the 00z GFS cools things off considerably in the 10-16 day range, appending that on to the 00z ECM guidance only brings the CET down to between 12 and 13*C as of 24th which is still near 1-2*C above the LTA.

Metcheck                     12.46c.           Anomaly          1.95c.

Netweather                  12.86c.           Anomaly          2.46c.

Peasedown St John       13.2c.             Anomaly          2.6c.

Metcheck                 12.56c.         Anomaly        2.5c.

Netweather              12.9c.           Anomaly        2.51c

Peasedown St John   13.2c.           Anomaly        2.6c. 

Metcheck                   12.77c.       Anomaly     2.66c

Netweather                13.07c.       Anomaly     2.68c.

Peasedown St John    13.4c.         Anomaly     2.8c. 

Metcheck                   12.77c.       Anomaly     2.66c

Netweather                13.07c.       Anomaly     2.68c.

Peasedown St John    13.4c.         Anomaly     2.8c. 

Looking at the past relationships across this dataset, CET could well be 13+ now. Great that we've got these other figures for reference.

How very typical it would be for the Hadley CET to be down throughout the entire exceptionally warm spell... fingers crossed it doesn't work out that way, although I expect GW is keeping track of things in the background one way or another .

Metcheck                    12.74c.    Anomaly    2.23c.

Netweather                  13.19c.    Anomaly    2.8c.

Peasedown St John      13.4c       Anomaly    2.8c.   

How very typical it would be for the Hadley CET to be down throughout the entire exceptionally warm spell... fingers crossed it doesn't work out that way, although I expect GW is keeping track of things in the background one way or another .

Do we know what the Met Office/Hadley issue is?