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Offline Gusty  
#21 Posted : 01 October 2017 11:41:36(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,267
Man
Location: Folkestone

Close to average 10.9c please.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline cowman  
#22 Posted : 01 October 2017 12:38:44(UTC)
cowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/02/2013(UTC)
Posts: 904
Man
United Kingdom
Location: uttoxeter

11.1c please GW
Offline cowman  
#23 Posted : 01 October 2017 12:39:28(UTC)
cowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/02/2013(UTC)
Posts: 904
Man
United Kingdom
Location: uttoxeter

11.1c please GW
Offline Snow Hoper  
#24 Posted : 01 October 2017 13:23:35(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,054
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

11.03C.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline marting  
#25 Posted : 01 October 2017 14:23:05(UTC)
marting

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 465
Man
Location: Greasby, Wirral

10.5c please

Martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Offline roger63  
#26 Posted : 01 October 2017 15:17:02(UTC)
roger63

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,281
Man
Location: Winchester,Hampshire

10.85 please GW.

Congrats on new job!

Offline Windy Willow  
#27 Posted : 01 October 2017 15:27:10(UTC)
Windy Willow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 461
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: NW Kent 119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

10.77 for me please

119.377 m /391.658 feet asl

NW Kent

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#28 Posted : 01 October 2017 16:10:24(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 65
United Kingdom
Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

Put me down for 10.5c please really not sure so hedging my bets with an average guess...

Offline Global Warming  
#29 Posted : 01 October 2017 16:45:23(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,136

Apologies for the delay - been rather busy in the past week.

A rather cool September. Would have been much cooler had it not been for a milder spell in the final week of the month.

Please post your CET predictions for October in this thread. Entries can be made until 23:59 on the 3rd (Tuesday evening) without penalty.

Historic summary for October

1971-2000 10.4C

1981-2010 10.7C

1997-2016 11.1C

2016 was an average October at 10.9C. There have been several warm Octobers in recent years with 2005, 2006, 2011, 2013 and 2014 all at 12.5C or above. 2008 and 2012 both saw 9.7C which was quite chilly. 2003 was the coldest in recent years with 9.2C.

Here is a chart of the October CET for all years since 1961:

Current model output

850's showing something of an upward spike in the first week of September based on the op runs followed by something a bit cooler. But the ENS show a different story - massive scatter. So difficult to say what we might see in the first half of September.

GFS - huge scatter

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=ENS&bw=

GEM - also huge scatter

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=ENS&bw= 

ECM - a gradual cooling trend

https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

Multi op - shows a sine wave pattern suggesting generally unsettled conditions

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=OP&bw=

Met Office contingency planners outlook 

Not yet available

Pattern Matching - JFF

Well interestingly the CET for the last 3 months is a very close match to 2010. Another good match for the last 2 months is 2007. Another match is 1992 as is 1987 and 1967.

The final 3 months of the year saw the following for the years mentioned above:

1967 - average October, cold November and December

1987 - cold October, average November and December

1992 - cold October, average November and cold December

2007 - all months close to average

2010 - average October, cold November and December

What is interesting about the 5 years above is there was not a single year with a warm month in the final 3 months. All were either average or cold. So after a very warm first half of 2017 I think we could see a much cooler second half with potentially a quite cool end to the year.

Latest CET tracker prediction for October

Looks close to average overall but most days slightly below after a warmish start

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Dingle Rob  
#30 Posted : 01 October 2017 19:20:46(UTC)
Dingle Rob

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 23/03/2011(UTC)
Posts: 204
United Kingdom
Location: Bristol

10.2C please.

Offline Roonie  
#31 Posted : 01 October 2017 20:24:20(UTC)
Roonie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,301
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

10.38 please..  

 

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline NeilM  
#32 Posted : 01 October 2017 21:37:52(UTC)
NeilM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 936
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Walney, Barrow

10.23°C

Edited by user 01 October 2017 21:39:30(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Walney Island, Barrow - 0m asl

My New website, www.omuiri-photography.co.uk, please visit, feedback welcome.

Offline Darren S  
#33 Posted : 01 October 2017 22:52:08(UTC)
Darren S

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 11,347
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Arborfield, Berks

11.3C please

Darren

Arborfield, Berks (61m asl)

Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Offline redmoons  
#34 Posted : 02 October 2017 00:25:28(UTC)
redmoons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,220
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

10.25c coolish month with plenty of frosts.

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Offline Dougie  
#35 Posted : 02 October 2017 01:13:50(UTC)
Dougie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

11.06 please.

Ha'way the lads
Offline wallaw  
#36 Posted : 02 October 2017 07:01:48(UTC)
wallaw

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,091
Man
Location: Stockton-on-Tees

10.4 for me please

Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

Online Hippydave  
#37 Posted : 02 October 2017 09:22:59(UTC)
Hippydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,062
Location: Tunbridge Wells

Think I'll go 10.6c.
Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: East Grinstead

Offline ARTzeman  
#38 Posted : 02 October 2017 10:24:32(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,908
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          14.3c.         Anomaly         2.0c. Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                       14.70c.       Anomaly         4.19c.

Netweather                    15.67c.       Anomaly         5.28c.

Peasedown St John        14.1c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Wobbly_Monk  
#39 Posted : 02 October 2017 10:41:19(UTC)
Wobbly_Monk

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 31/12/2015(UTC)
Posts: 35
United Kingdom
Location: Currently in Chennai

10.8C for me thanks GW
Offline The Professional  
#40 Posted : 02 October 2017 11:46:01(UTC)
The Professional

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 31/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 151
United Kingdom
Location: Winchester

Banking on cloudy nights holding temps up a little, otherwise would be going lower. 10.9 for me please. Many thanks GW.
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