Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead forecast video

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the Written version

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

A complicated week ahead... Let battle commence! 

Will have the first seasonal model round-up for Winter 2017/18 @ GWV tomorrow. They'll also be a little "mini" Winter update on the Blog looking at solar activity, SST's, etc...

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the mods for making it happen! 

EDIT: Here's the first Winter 17/18 Seasonal model round-up video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2017-18-forecast-uk.php

---

Thank you Gavin.. End of the month weather worth having for variety... 

---

Cheers Gavin.

---

Cheers as always Mr GP.

---

^^^^^^

Thanks guys! 

Here's the one you've been waiting for (or maybe not?  )

The First Seasonal Model Round-Up For Winter 2017/18

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Getting together several long range seasonal models for the first time this season to see what they are all showing for Winter 17/18.

Will add to the Winter updates and forecast page with a written summary for anybody that can't watch the vid later.

Have also got a mini Winter update coming up on my Blog this afternoon.

---

Id like to say thanks Gav but the models look like giving us a very prolonged wet Autumn ...............I cant see them all being wrong

---

Good old “JAM” TEC, never lets the side down for those of us looking for something a little colder than average.😂

All in all I’m optimistic because of these updates, I mean how many times do they show +height anomalies to our N/NW at this time of the year only for them to slowly drain away by the time winter approaches. Glass half full approach. 😁

^^^

Thanks guys! 

I would say if all these long range models were showing cold today we'd all be sitting back and saying they'll flip mild by November.

It's VERY early days for long range models.

Here's today's Blog update;

Mini Winter 2017/18 Update

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html

Looks at solar activity, SST's, ENSO and Siberian Snow cover.

Will have the Fourth Winter 17/18 Update next Sunday (1st October)

---

Have added the first Winter 17/18 seasonal model round-up to Winter updates page + A written summary if you can't watch vid

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2017-18-forecast-uk.php

Annnnnnndddd we're done! 

---

Much appreciated, Gav, particularly the written summary.

Of all the seasonal pointers, I'd rank model output right at the bottom, alongside volume of berries. (To me they're both an expression of current and recent conditions, and that's it; when you see how model output ensembles diverge into spaghetti at the ten-day mark, it's pointless giving them any credence at ten weeks or more out.)

Doesn't stop me eagerly looking forward to them every autumn though. I think the problem is that they all look so precise once they've been averaged out into anomalies, and the resultant maps look so like genuine weather maps, that you'd have a real disdain for the joys of weather forecasting to ignore them completely.

So, thanks again, Gavin.

---

Thanks Far Away! 

Think it's fair to say reviews for the first seasonal model round-up have been decidedly "mixed" haha!! 

---