Rather than clutter up the MOD thread and the fact that I’ve nothing else better to to do I thought I’d start the ball rolling. Here’s a cold weather fans nirvana winter forecasts, to be honest I’ve no idea who he is and what his track records like but who cares when it shows what you want. 😁

 

http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf 

Rather than clutter up the MOD thread and the fact that I’ve nothing else better to to do I thought I’d start the ball rolling. Here’s a cold weather fans nirvana winter forecasts, to be honest I’ve no idea who he is and what his track records like but who cares when it shows what you want. 😁

 

http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf 

Well his summer forecast wasn't great: he claimed June would turn damp from the 17th, when in fact the hottest weather was just arriving then; he also said August would be the best month of the summer! http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/Advance_Predictions_Summer_2017.pdf

 

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Well his summer forecast wasn't great: he claimed June would turn damp from the 17th, when in fact the hottest weather was just arriving then; he also said August would be the best month of the summer! http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/Advance_Predictions_Summer_2017.pdf

 

Next.......

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Well his summer forecast wasn't great: he claimed June would turn damp from the 17th, when in fact the hottest weather was just arriving then; he also said August would be the best month of the summer! http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/Advance_Predictions_Summer_2017.pdf

 

You always get one who likes to burst your bubble. 😂😂😂

Y

It's just the same every year now which is why my autumn forecast has a 100% success rate so far.

 

1.Horrible wet dull summer

2.Horrible mild damp autumn

3.Horrible snowless and frost-free winter.

 

1. has already been satisfied this year and model output shows 2. on its way to becoming a reality so no reason to think the pattern will break at 3

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Thanks for bringing this guy's methodology to a wider audience - fascinating stuff.

Of course he's not 100% accurate but fair play he doesn't pretend to be. But as an experiment into whether folklore has any kind of bearing it is a must watch.

I'm quite interested in his methods; from past predictions what is apprent is that although he gets it wrong now and then he does seem to pick up on general trends. Maybe a week or so out but generally it could be argued this methodology is no less accurate than computer models.

What's so interesting is his call of a significant cold winter ahead -as this will surely blow his methodology out of the water or verify it. How this pans out will be fascinating!

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I don't normally do LRF's but on this occasion I shall.

My verification stats are very high

I look at the stars to base my thoughts.

As soon as I see Orion rising in the east around 8pm I feel a change to a winter pattern starting to appear. This year will be no exception.

October 2017 - Warmest weather early in the month, frosts become possible in northern areas from mid month. A mixed month with settled patterns interspersed by windier and unsettled patterns at times. Possibility of snow on Scottish mountains by the end of the month !

November 2017 - Turning cooler and generally darker. Frosts will become more common, especially in the second half of the month. Morning fog will become more of a problem this month and leaf fall blocking drainage gullies could result in local flooding when showers occur. As the month progresses wintry showers could become more common at times, especially over northern hills.

December 2017 - Becoming cooler and even darker with sunshine very limited to no more than 8 hours maximum per day in southern areas in  the clearest days. Frosts will be possible in all areas on calmer nights, especially away from SW coastal locations. The probability of wintry showers occurring this month increases. 

January 2018 - A mixed month with rain at times, blustery showers at times but also some colder, settled periods with frost. Wintry showers are possible at times, especially in the north and there is a 10% chance of a very cold outbreak from the east that will threaten the UK at times, with a chance of snow, especially in the east and southeast. Need to check the models 4 times a day for this !  

February 2018 - Very similar to January but with the likelihood of more in the way of sunshine hours, especially towards the end of the February. Frost is likely in all areas in calmer and settled conditions. Wintry showers remain possible especially in Scotland and there continues to be a 10% probability of something significantly colder from the east with the threat of more widespread snow showers.

March 2018 - Is likely to be a little warmer than February. The risk of wintry showers will recede from the south as the month progresses Some warmer days could see the temperature climbing above 16c and it should start to feel more springlike with longer hours of sunshine. Frost will still remain possible overnight, especially in the north during the first half of the month.

Fingers crossed my methodology works and things pan out as I expect.

 

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I don't normally do LRF's but on this occasion I shall.

My verification stats are very high

I look at the stars to base my thoughts.

As soon as I see Orion rising in the east around 8pm I feel a change to a winter pattern starting to appear. This year will be no exception.

October - Warmest weather early in the month, frosts become possible in northern areas from mid month. A mixed month with settled patterns interspersed by windier and unsettled patterns at times. Possibility of snow on Scottish mountains by the end of the month !

November - Turning cooler and generally darker. Frosts will become more common, especially in the second half of the month. Morning fog will become more of a problem this month and leaf fall blocking drainage gullies could result in local flooding when showers occur. As the month progresses wintry showers could become more common at times, especially over northern hills.

December - Becoming cooler and even darker with sunshine very limited to no more than 8 hours maximum per day in southern areas in  the clearest days. Frosts will be possible in all areas on calmer nights, especially away from SW coastal locations. The probability of wintry showers occurring this month increases. 

January - A mixed month with rain at times, blustery showers at times but also some colder, settled periods with frost. Wintry showers are possible at times, especially in the north and there is a 10% chance of a very cold outbreak from the east that will threaten the UK at times. 

February - Very similar to January but with the likelihood of more in the way of sunshine hours, especially towards the end of the February. Frost is likely in all areas in calmer and settled conditions. Wintry showers remain possible especially in Scotland and there continues to be a 10% probability of something significantly colder from the east with the threat of more widespread snow showers.

March - Is likely to be a little warmer than February. The risk of wintry showers will recede from the south as the month progresses Some warmer days could see the temperature climbing above 16c and it should start to feel more springlike with longer hours of sunshine. Frost will still remain possible overnight, especially in the north during the first half of the month.

Fingers crossed my methodology works and things pan out as I expect.

 

Sounds like you're thinking of a cool and relatively settled Winter with little in the way of Atlantic-driven storminess.

I would bank this.

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Sounds like you're thinking of a cool and relatively settled Winter with little in the way of Atlantic-driven storminess.

I would bank this.

Indeed Ian. I'm expecting a mixed winter with cooler and milder spells. A bit of something for everyone at some stage. 

Strongest winds when they do occur will be towards the NW of the UK but also possible across southern coasts at times. Something to keep an eye on too. 

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I don't normally do LRF's but on this occasion I shall.

My verification stats are very high

I look at the stars to base my thoughts.

As soon as I see Orion rising in the east around 8pm I feel a change to a winter pattern starting to appear. This year will be no exception.

October 2017 - Warmest weather early in the month, frosts become possible in northern areas from mid month. A mixed month with settled patterns interspersed by windier and unsettled patterns at times. Possibility of snow on Scottish mountains by the end of the month !

November 2017 - Turning cooler and generally darker. Frosts will become more common, especially in the second half of the month. Morning fog will become more of a problem this month and leaf fall blocking drainage gullies could result in local flooding when showers occur. As the month progresses wintry showers could become more common at times, especially over northern hills.

December 2017 - Becoming cooler and even darker with sunshine very limited to no more than 8 hours maximum per day in southern areas in  the clearest days. Frosts will be possible in all areas on calmer nights, especially away from SW coastal locations. The probability of wintry showers occurring this month increases. 

January 2018 - A mixed month with rain at times, blustery showers at times but also some colder, settled periods with frost. Wintry showers are possible at times, especially in the north and there is a 10% chance of a very cold outbreak from the east that will threaten the UK at times, with a chance of snow, especially in the east and southeast. Need to check the models 4 times a day for this !  

February 2018 - Very similar to January but with the likelihood of more in the way of sunshine hours, especially towards the end of the February. Frost is likely in all areas in calmer and settled conditions. Wintry showers remain possible especially in Scotland and there continues to be a 10% probability of something significantly colder from the east with the threat of more widespread snow showers.

March 2018 - Is likely to be a little warmer than February. The risk of wintry showers will recede from the south as the month progresses Some warmer days could see the temperature climbing above 16c and it should start to feel more springlike with longer hours of sunshine. Frost will still remain possible overnight, especially in the north during the first half of the month.

Fingers crossed my methodology works and things pan out as I expect.

 

Priceless!

 

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Will go for a cooler (rather than colder) than average winter this year with my gut telling me that February in particular will be the most notable month for weather events.

 

Methodology: Hunch.

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Rather than clutter up the MOD thread and the fact that I’ve nothing else better to to do I thought I’d start the ball rolling. Here’s a cold weather fans nirvana winter forecasts, to be honest I’ve no idea who he is and what his track records like but who cares when it shows what you want. 😁

 

http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf 

'Two full moons in a month indicate a wet month'

I needn't read any more if I'm brutally honest 😉

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Have to say ................very very early days but Gav's model round up points very much to a mild wet Winter .

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Have to say ................very very early days but Gav's model round up points very much to a mild wet Winter .

Yes, just watched the round up and it certainly looks like quite an unsettled winter. That will actually benefit some - I'm expecting more snow this year in Saddleworth if it is more active. 

Rather than clutter up the MOD thread and the fact that I’ve nothing else better to to do I thought I’d start the ball rolling. Here’s a cold weather fans nirvana winter forecasts, to be honest I’ve no idea who he is and what his track records like but who cares when it shows what you want. 😁

 

http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf 

 

It reads more like 'weather without knowledge' - how do NNW or NNE winds bring severe flooding to the areas mentioned ? 

What waso special about January 1991 ? Unless the author means Feb 91.

Very early days as Gusty has said but at this juncture there is no reason to expect anything other than a mild to very mild winter when compared with historical averages - i.e normal fare for the modern era.

 

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It reads more like 'weather without knowledge' - how do NNW or NNE winds bring severe flooding to the areas mentioned ? 

What waso special about January 1991 ? Unless the author means Feb 91.

Very early days as Gusty has said but at this juncture there is no reason to expect anything other than a mild to very mild winter when compared with historical averages - i.e normal fare for the modern era.

 

 

given the extremely active hurricane season compared to most other years over the last 20, I think it would be foolhardy to predict anything yet - and what is the 'modern era' exactly ?

Perhaps our only hope for a cold winter is if Trump sets off a few nukes

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given the extremely active hurricane season compared to most other years over the last 20, I think it would be foolhardy to predict anything yet - and what is the 'modern era' exactly ?

 

Jayni I haven't predicted anything yet - what I'm saying is that in the modern era you need a number of factors to come together in order to indicate the sort of high latitide blocking that would be needed to deliver for the UK.

I defined the modern era in 2003 to represent the step change that we had seen in our winters since the late 1980s. 14 years on and despite the odd blip, that is where we remain.

 

 

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I sense another season of people having to put up with subtle "modern era trolling" as we head into winter.

As for the weather, who knows but I have noticed that the leaves' changing/dropping and the berries seem a bit earlier this year in my location. While I know they do not "predict" they are indicative or weather patterns in preceding weeks and months. Such patterns may also have other impacts...

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