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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 November 2016 23:06:49(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

PLEASE SEND YOUR DECEMBER 2016 AND WINTER 2016/17 CET PREDICTIONS TO ME VIA PM PLEASE

I AM GOING TO RUN A WINTER CET COMPETITION SO IF YOU WANT TO PARTICIPATE PLEASE SEND ME YOUR PREDICTION AT THE SAME TIME AS YOUR DECEMBER PREDICTION

So we reach the end of another year and we move into another winter. Lots of speculation about whether the first half of this winter will be a cold one. We will soon find out. I rather suspect it will be on the chilly side.

As ever predictions for the final two months of the year are to be made by private message to me please rather than posted in this thread. This ensures we get genuine predictions not tactical predictions as the annual competition reaches its climax.

Predictions for December and for winter 2016/17 can be made until 23:59 on 2 December.

Historic summary for December

1971-2000 5.1C

1981-2010 4.6C

1996-2015 4.9C

Last December was of course the warmest on record by a country mile with an astonishing CET of 9.7C. No chance of seeing anything remotely similar this year. December 2010 was one of the coldest on record with -0.7C. 2011 and 2013 were both mild at 6.0C and 6.4C. Worth noting that December is the only month of the year where the 1971-2000 mean is higher than the 1981-2010 mean. The warm December last year does mean the rolling 20 year average for December is back to near 5C now.

Chart of December CET with rolling 10 year mean since 1961

 

Latest model output

After a cool start the 850's start to trend up quite significantly. But this can be deceptive at this time of year. High pressure will be in charge for potentially all of the first 10 days of the month and so at the surface temperatures are likely to remain cool - the MT2 links show this well. Maybe something a bit milder into the second week as low pressure moves towards the north west of the UK.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

12z ECM looks cool to average at best. Control run is very cold and an outlier for a period before trending very mild. Huge scatter on the ENS by day 6 though so pointless in my view looking beyond T120 at the moment on these charts. 

https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

Met Office contingency planners

Significantly higher than normal risk of impacts from colder conditions. Rare to see this level of confidence in a contingency planners forecast. The chart for December is quite telling. Of course it is only a probabilistic assessment so does not mean we can't see an average or mild December. But the odds on this are relatively lower than normal.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v1.pdf

November CET outlook based on current model runs

Will try and post this up on Tuesday evening

Analogue Arctic Oscillation (AO)

It looks like we will have seen at least 50 days in October and November this year with a AO index reading that is negative. I had a look back through the archives to see when was the last time at least 50 days were negative in Oct and Nov. I had to go back to 1968. That year saw a cold December with a CET of 3.0C. Not a great analogue though as we were entering a weak El Nino and close to a solar maximum.

Prior to that you have to go back to 1960. This year also saw a cool December but not quite as cold at 3.9C. This is a much better analogue. We were heading towards a solar minimum and we were in an ENSO neutral state. That winter saw a cool December and also a coolish January with a CET of just 3.5C up to the 27th. Beyond this February and March were very mild. 

So 1960/61 looks like an interesting potential comparison. No exceptional cold but a chilly first 2 months of winter followed by a very mild last month of winter and first month of spring.

Pattern matching

Looking at combinations of average Octobers with cool Novembers with similar CETs to this year, 2010 is an obvious match. 1998 is close as well as is 1988. 1976, 1972, 1967, 1962, 1961 are also all close. 5 of those years all had cold Decembers whereas 2 were mild and one average. The  last cold year was 1976. 

Interestingly 1976 also had a winter pattern very similar to what I describe above for 1960 with a cold first 2 months followed by very mild February and March. 1976 was a solar minimum and had a weak El Nino so not a great match for this year.

But overall I think there are strong grounds to suggest that December really ought to be a cold month this year. Particularly when you also consider the weakness of the polar vortex, the record low sea ice, the strong hurricane season, bitter cold already established in Siberia (-50C in places at the moment so a good cold pool) and the record mild temperatures in the Arctic. All must favour the chances of increased blocking. Whether this blocking sets up correctly to allow cold to filter through to the UK is of course another matter. But the possibility is there and much greater chance than in most years. The synoptic set up this year is clearly hugely different to what it was in December last year.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 30 January 2017 11:20:39(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline KevBrads1  
#2 Posted : 29 November 2016 05:07:04(UTC)
KevBrads1

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Still no 5.9C for a December CET which I find remarkable. What are the climatic odds of recording a December with a CET above 9.0C before one of 5.9C after decades of records?

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Online Caz  
#3 Posted : 29 November 2016 22:03:42(UTC)
Caz

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PM'd my guesses!  Thanks GW. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Online Caz  
#4 Posted : 30 November 2016 18:13:06(UTC)
Caz

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Does anyone have data for previous winter CET figures?

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Global Warming  
#5 Posted : 30 November 2016 18:56:56(UTC)
Global Warming

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Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Does anyone have data for previous winter CET figures?

Sorry yes I can post some later this evening 

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Essan  
#6 Posted : 30 November 2016 18:57:44(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Does anyone have data for previous winter CET figures?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean.txt

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Offline kendalian  
#7 Posted : 30 November 2016 19:32:30(UTC)
kendalian

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Thanks for that...

1659 looked a bit nippy 

Not many negative CET winters...what chance another? 

Offline Bolty  
#8 Posted : 30 November 2016 19:51:12(UTC)
Bolty

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Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl

PM'd you GW. I've gone for 3.9C - a chilly December this year.
Offline kendalian  
#9 Posted : 30 November 2016 20:02:35(UTC)
kendalian

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1916-17 really caught my eye.

CET of 1.5 but no negative month (does anyone have the DJF individual months?), so that must have been 3 very cold months in a row when the country was in desperate times.

First winter of WW2 was very cold as well; first negative CET month for 45 years I think, the longest spell in the entire CET series.

1978-9 the Winter of Discontent...another very cold one (by 20th C standards especially).

Nature does seem to have a habit of sticking the boot in when the country's on its knees. 

This year we (or rather some of us ) have chosen to divorce our European friends with all the fallout to follow, so will nature take its revenge on us and give us a Continental winter? 

Can't wait to see what Brian tells us tomorrow...it's the highlight of the TWO year for me!! 

 

Edited by user 30 November 2016 20:04:20(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Global Warming  
#10 Posted : 30 November 2016 22:05:30(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

Originally Posted by: kendalian Go to Quoted Post

1916-17 really caught my eye.

CET of 1.5 but no negative month (does anyone have the DJF individual months?), so that must have been 3 very cold months in a row when the country was in desperate times.

First winter of WW2 was very cold as well; first negative CET month for 45 years I think, the longest spell in the entire CET series.

1978-9 the Winter of Discontent...another very cold one (by 20th C standards especially).

Nature does seem to have a habit of sticking the boot in when the country's on its knees. 

This year we (or rather some of us ) have chosen to divorce our European friends with all the fallout to follow, so will nature take its revenge on us and give us a Continental winter? 

Can't wait to see what Brian tells us tomorrow...it's the highlight of the TWO year for me!! 

 

1916/17 DJF 1.9C, 1.6C, 0.9C

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Twister  
#11 Posted : 01 December 2016 09:47:11(UTC)
Twister

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Location: Egerton, Kent 33mASL

Another very tricky month to predict. A balance of the signals for milder uppers to march in verses the behaviour of surface temps and cloud cover in high pressure scenarios along with LRF hints for later in the month. Where's ERNIE when you need it? ;)

Either way, it's a frigid opening few hours to December here with a low of -7.3C

Edited by user 01 December 2016 09:48:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL

Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)

Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39

Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)

"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

Offline ARTzeman  
#12 Posted : 01 December 2016 12:51:25(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Just for starters.... All change  Tomorrow......

    Metcheck      1.58c.    Anomaly   -3.41c.

    Netweather   0.0c.     Anomaly    -5.11c.

    Clevedon Weather  -2.7c.  

Mount Sorrel    4.0c.  Anomaly -1.1c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Online Caz  
#13 Posted : 01 December 2016 19:46:33(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Many thanks Andy.  On that strength, I'll stick with my original guess that I PM'd to GW. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Essan  
#14 Posted : 01 December 2016 19:49:16(UTC)
Essan

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Antarctica
Location: Albion

I have a feeling I have got it very very wrong ......

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Offline ARTzeman  
#15 Posted : 02 December 2016 12:22:50(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         3.4c.       Anomaly         - 1.8c.   Provisional to 01st.

Metcheck                      4.88c.     Anomaly           -0.12c.

Netweather                   3.6c        Anomaly           -1.45c.

 

Peasedown St john     3.6c.     Anomaly   -3.78c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#16 Posted : 02 December 2016 12:30:21(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Originally Posted by: Essan Go to Quoted Post

I have a feeling I have got it very very wrong ......

 

I'm in the same boat I'm going to need a 1684 esque freeze up in the 2nd half of December now to have any chance.

 

Online Saint Snow  
#17 Posted : 02 December 2016 12:50:32(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Originally Posted by: Essan Go to Quoted Post

I have a feeling I have got it very very wrong ......

 

 

Me too - but ain't that the beauty of the CET comp? Personally, whilst acknowledging the additional work that GW would need to put in, I'd prefer if entries for all year were secret.

"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

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Offline Essan  
#18 Posted : 02 December 2016 13:04:24(UTC)
Essan

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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley         3.4c.       Anomaly         - 1.8c.   Provisional to 01st.

 

At least I got it right for one day

(And that after I changed my origin prediction for being too low ..... )

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Online Saint Snow  
#19 Posted : 02 December 2016 15:17:22(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Originally Posted by: Essan Go to Quoted Post

 

 

At least I got it right for one day

(And that after I changed my origin prediction for being too low ..... )

 

 

Jeez, you went THAT low??? What were you thinking?????

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 - I'm not far off that guess, myself

"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Online Caz  
#20 Posted : 02 December 2016 17:42:24(UTC)
Caz

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Posts: 20,202
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

I went a little bit higher and I might be right tomorrow!  

The end of month MO always seems to do a U-turn a couple of days into the new month. Just after the CET competition deadline!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

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