Met Office Hadley           5.9c.           Anomaly           -1.9c.     Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                        5.28c.          Anomaly            -1.64c.

Netweather                     5.78c.          Anomaly            -1.13c.

Peasedown St John     5.4c.         Anomaly                -2.3c.

Met Office Hadley           5.9c.           Anomaly           -1.9c.     Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                        5.28c.          Anomaly            -1.64c.

Netweather                     5.78c.          Anomaly            -1.13c.

 

Peasedown St John     5.4c.         Anomaly                -2.3c.

Long may it remain so low!

4.2C here so far (-2.2C)

Met Office Hadley             5.8c.              Anomaly         -2.0c.   Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                         5.30c.             Anomaly           -1.62c.

Netweather                      5.75c.             Anomaly           -1.16c.

Peasedown St John        6.1c             Anomaly            -2.1c.

Met Office  Hadley           5.8c.          Anomaly         -1.9c.  Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                         5.28c.        Anomaly           -1.64c.

Netweather                      5.82c.        Anomaly           -1.09c.

Peasedown St John       6.6c.           Anomaly          -2.6c.     Compared to 2015..... 

It has been a very cold start to November indeed. The Hadley data does not do it justice. Up to today I estimate the CET currently stands at 5.02C which is way below the Hadley figure of 5.8C. Some very cold nights so far this month. My figure may be a little low but not by much.

The CET on the 8th of 0.9C is the 6th coldest for that date on record since 1772. As it happens the 8th often seems to be a cold day otherwise it this year would have been even higher up the list.

Based on the 5.02C figure the first 11 days of November have been the 5th coldest first 11 days of November since 1900 and the coldest since 1980.

Coldest first 11 days of Nov since 1900

1919 3.38C

1980 4.27C

1910 4.43C

1934 4.89C

2016 5.02C est

Temperatures return to average this weekend and then become very mild indeed for the first half of next week pushing the CET up by more than 1C. After that temperatures return close to average again. There is a possibility that temperatures could dip below average by quite a bit towards the end of the month.

Currently I estimate the CET will level off between 6.4C and 6.5C by the end of next week. 

So at the moment I would say anyone who has predicted around 6C or a little above is looking in good shape. I am still quite happy with my prediction of 6.2C.

Met Office Hadley            5.8c.         Anomaly          -1.9c.  Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                         5.42c.       Anomaly          -1.50c.

Netweather                      5.8c.         Anomaly          -1.11c.

Peasedown St John       6.5c.        Anomaly          -2.7c.      

Met Office Hadley               5.9c.            Anomaly         -1.6c.    Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                            5.57c.          Anomaly         -1.35c.

Netweather                         6.04c.         Anomaly         -0.89c.

Peasedown St John        6.8c.            Anomaly            -2.4c.

A quick heads up - I am going to run a winter CET competition this year. 

To keep it simple, if you wish to participate in the winter CET competition you can send me your predictions by PM at the same time as you send your December CET predictions.

I will open the December CET thread a few days before the end of November as usual. But predictions for December and the winter CET can be sent to me before then if you wish via PM.

Met Office Hadley            6.1c.        Anomaly      -1.3c.   Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                         5.79c.      Anomaly       -1.16c.

Netweather                      6.13c.      Anomaly       -0.7c.

Peasedown St John        6.9c.         Anomaly       -2.3c.

Met Office Hadley          6.4c.         Anomaly         -1.0c.  Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                       6.30c.       Anomaly          -0.63c.

Netweather                    6.49c.       Anomaly          -0.42c.

Peasedown St John      7.2c.          Anomaly          -1.0c.   

Massive surge in the CET today and I now have it at 6C by my calculations.

However, after another warm day tomorrow it turns very cold again for a time before something closer to average beyond that. But I suspect there is a chance that we will ultimately see somewhat cooler conditions to end the month than the data currently suggests.

Notwithstanding the mild spell at the moment and the lack of any sustained cold later in the month currently showing up, I still estimate the CET will only be at 6.24C by the 29th. So my prediction of 6.2C is still looking fairly good at the moment. If anything I am now slightly concerned that I will end up too high.

Met Office Hadley             6.8c.              Anomaly         -0.5c.    Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                          6.54c.            Anomaly           -0.38c.

Netweather                       6.91c.            Anomaly            0.02c.

Peasedown St John         7.5c.             Anomaly           -1.7c.         

5.5C (-1C) to today here but on a downward trend again for a few days.

Met Office Hadley             7.1c.             Anomaly        -0.1c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                          6.61c.           Anomaly        -0.32c.

Netweather                       7.11c.           Anomaly         0.22c.

Peasedown St John         7.7c.        Anomaly           -0.5c.          

Massive surge in the CET today and I now have it at 6C by my calculations.

However, after another warm day tomorrow it turns very cold again for a time before something closer to average beyond that. But I suspect there is a chance that we will ultimately see somewhat cooler conditions to end the month than the data currently suggests.

Notwithstanding the mild spell at the moment and the lack of any sustained cold later in the month currently showing up, I still estimate the CET will only be at 6.24C by the 29th. So my prediction of 6.2C is still looking fairly good at the moment. If anything I am now slightly concerned that I will end up too high.

If it did finish at 6.2c, according to my back-of-a-fag-packet scribblings, there wouldn't be too much change at the very top. Twister & The Professional would climb in the top 10, with Gusty dropping out.

You'd continue your renaissance to be sat in 11th

Further down the list, the big fallers would be John S2, Wallaw & Bertwhistle, whilst the main upwardly mobiles would be me, Tractor Boy, Snow Hoper, SS Magnet & Cowman.

I think unless we start to get 2010'esque charts showing across the board by late Nov, December's going to be a tricky month to forecast, and could see some big error margins.

Could work out as average for December if temperature is up and down.....

Could work out as average for December if temperature is up and down.....

Well, yes - or it could be cold throughout and an average punt would be 2c or 3c out. Or it could be a cold start, leading some to plump for a low CET, only for it to turn mild from mid-month. Or even, the NWP veers away from cold output as Nov comes to a close, people go milder with their forecasts, only for output to flip back to cold output early in December.

7.1 to the 16th

0.1 below the 61 to 90 average

1.0 below the 81 to 10 average

Yes, not far off the old November average now, and pushing over 7c.  This may be the highpoint.  Where will it settle though???