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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 30 October 2016 09:21:55(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,285

We are nearly at the end of another year and getting close to winter. Generally 2016 has been a fairly mild year so far. Will there be a sting in the tail?

As ever predictions for the final two months of the year are to be made by private message to me please rather than posted in this thread. This ensures we get genuine predictions not tactical predictions as the annual competition reaches its climax.

Predictions for November can be made until 23:59 on 1 November with no penalty. 

Historic summary for November

1971-2000 6.9C

1981-2010 7.1C

1996-2015 7.5C

The last two Novembers have been very mild with 9.5C last year - not far off the all time record although still not as warm as December was. 2013 was much colder at 6.2C. The coldest recent November was 2010 at 5.2C.

Chart of November CET with rolling 10 year mean since 1961

Latest model output

850 temperatures looking fairly cool for the first part of the month

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

This morning's ECM run for De Bilt shows the op run going very cold right at the end of the run. The control run continues this cold theme deeper into FI. Mean temperatures in fact are close to zero by the end of the run. However, the control run is a big outlier. The majority of ensemble members show mean temperatures around 6-7C.

https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

My CET estimate for the first 13 days of the month suggests a CET of around 7C by the 12th which is more than 1C below average.

Met Office contingency planners overview

Not yet issued. Should be published tomorrow. Will update when available.

Analogues

Looking at years with a warm September (>15C) and a fairly average October there is a mix of results. The majority of years have a cold November but there are some very warm ones as well. Difficult to draw much of a conclusion but 1961 is by far the best match since 1950 which saw a below average November. This year November will start chilly.

                 September     October     November   ENSO

1999          15.6C            10.7C        7.9C           Strong La Nina

1961          15.2C            10.9C        6.0C           Neutral (slightly negative)

1958          15.1C            10.8C        6.4C           Weak El Nino

1949          16.3C            11.7C        6.6C           Strong La Nina

1898          15.2C            11.3C        7.2C

1825          15.1C            10.8C        5.2C

1795          16.0C            11.7C        4.5C

1779          15.2C            10.9C        5.7C

1730          15.3C            10.9C        9.2C

1729          16.6C            10.1C        8.1C

2016          16.0C            10.8C        ????            Neutral (slightly negative)

Points to note are that 1999 saw a very strong La Nina which is not generally conducive to cold winter conditions in the UK. Very different setup to this year. As was 1949.

The closest match to this year is 1961. That saw a neutral ENSO with a slight negative tendency. Also saw sun spot numbers similar to what we have this year as we moved towards a solar minimum. I will be watching 1961 very closely in the coming weeks as I think it is a good benchmark for this year. December 1961 was very cold (2.2C) followed by an average January and February and then a very cold March (2.8C).

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Edited by moderator 25 December 2016 12:01:13(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline Deep Powder  
#2 Posted : 30 October 2016 20:31:19(UTC)
Deep Powder

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,435
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

Thanks GW, great stuff, much appreciated. Guess already pm'ed to you 😀
Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#3 Posted : 30 October 2016 21:59:33(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,112
Location: South Cambridgeshire

 

I need to tomorrow to think about it - but looks like a cold one.

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Online Bolty  
#4 Posted : 30 October 2016 22:01:15(UTC)
Bolty

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Posts: 2,685
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl

6.0C for me please.
Offline roger63  
#5 Posted : 31 October 2016 10:14:29(UTC)
roger63

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Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,281
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Location: Winchester,Hampshire

GW you mention 61/62 as an analogue year.

Just looked back at my own observations for Burton on Trent.

The mean monthly temps I recorded were.

N 4.8,D 1.0,J 3.2,F 4.2,M 2.8

The most interesting feature was a cold spell of  three weeks stretching from Dec 15th to Jan 5th.This included minimum temperatures of -10C on Christmas day,and on the 2nd and 3rd of January.It also included eleven days with maxima of 0C or below.Thre was amoderayte snowfall on the 29th and 30th December with snow lying for a week.

January and February were pretty average but cold north easterlies set in around 22nd Feb leading into one of the coldest Marches on record.with persistent winds between north and south east.There was an absence of heavy snow but the main feature was the cold nights with frost on 23 days.

So will December 2016 deliver a decent cold spell?We await the Meto contingency forecast with interest.

Offline Bertwhistle  
#6 Posted : 31 October 2016 19:16:22(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,147
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: roger63 Go to Quoted Post

GW you mention 61/62 as an analogue year.

Just looked back at my own observations for Burton on Trent.

The mean monthly temps I recorded were.

N 4.8,D 1.0,J 3.2,F 4.2,M 2.8

The most interesting feature was a cold spell of  three weeks stretching from Dec 15th to Jan 5th.This included minimum temperatures of -10C on Christmas day,and on the 2nd and 3rd of January.It also included eleven days with maxima of 0C or below.Thre was amoderayte snowfall on the 29th and 30th December with snow lying for a week.

January and February were pretty average but cold north easterlies set in around 22nd Feb leading into one of the coldest Marches on record.with persistent winds between north and south east.There was an absence of heavy snow but the main feature was the cold nights with frost on 23 days.

So will December 2016 deliver a decent cold spell?We await the Meto contingency forecast with interest.

Interesting local analysis; I will try to avoid being impetuous this month as I've changed my bid a few times recently. I'll see what the big 3 hint at tomorrow, although the picture is already looking a tad less blocked...

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Zubzero  
#7 Posted : 31 October 2016 20:25:23(UTC)
Zubzero

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Posts: 1,594
Man
Location: Cambourne

Cheers GW 

 

I'll go for 7.4C please 

Online Jonesy  
#8 Posted : 31 October 2016 22:43:38(UTC)
Jonesy

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Posts: 4,029
Man
Location: Medway

GW wants predictions via Personal Message peeps as we are now in the final two furlongs 

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .

Offline Caz  
#9 Posted : 01 November 2016 18:45:41(UTC)
Caz

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Posts: 20,486
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

I've PM'd my guess. Let's see if I can do as badly as I did in October!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline TimS  
#10 Posted : 01 November 2016 20:12:48(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,792
Location: Brockley

7.8C please
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Twister  
#11 Posted : 01 November 2016 20:14:28(UTC)
Twister

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Posts: 4,148
Man
Location: Egerton, Kent 33mASL

I found it a hard one to predict this time! It will be interesting to see what the spread is:)
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL

Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)

Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39

Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)

"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

Offline Global Warming  
#12 Posted : 01 November 2016 22:32:20(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,285

I agree it is a difficult one to call this month. The models seem to be trending a bit milder towards the middle of the month at the moment. I do think it will be a cooler than average month overall but not especially cold.

I am posting my prediction here and before I have looked at any of the PMs I have received so I don't get an unfair advantage. My prediction is 6.2C.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#13 Posted : 02 November 2016 11:20:25(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 27,213
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley              9.1c.          Anomaly         0.2c.     Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                           6.92c.        Anomaly         -0.01c.

Netweather                        8.93c.        Anomaly          2.04c.

 

Peasedown St John         9.2c.         Anomaly          1.0c.     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#14 Posted : 03 November 2016 13:09:25(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,213
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            7.9c.            Anomaly      -0.6c.  Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                         6.24c.          Anomaly      -0.68c.

Netweather                      7.26c.          Anomaly       0.37c.

 

Peasedown St John       7.9c.             Anomaly      -0.3c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#15 Posted : 04 November 2016 11:26:16(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,213
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            7.2c.        Anomaly     -1.0c.   Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                         6.66c.      Anomaly      -0.01c.

Netweather                      7.03c.      Anomaly      0.14c.

 

Peasedown St John       7.7c.         Anomaly     -0.5c.

 

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Online Saint Snow  
#16 Posted : 04 November 2016 11:52:59(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 46,424
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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

I agree it is a difficult one to call this month. The models seem to be trending a bit milder towards the middle of the month at the moment. I do think it will be a cooler than average month overall but not especially cold.

I am posting my prediction here and before I have looked at any of the PMs I have received so I don't get an unfair advantage. My prediction is 6.2C.

 

I'm intrigued to see the list of people's predictions for this month

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Caz  
#17 Posted : 04 November 2016 16:22:08(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,486
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

I'm intrigued to see the list of people's predictions for this month

I think I went for 6.8c. What did you go for?

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Online Saint Snow  
#18 Posted : 04 November 2016 16:28:24(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Posts: 46,424
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

I think I went for 6.8c. What did you go for?

 

8.4c - sh*t or bust tactics!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nah, only kidding.  I can't actually remember, but about 1c below average I think

 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Caz  
#19 Posted : 04 November 2016 16:34:21(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,486
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

8.4c - sh*t or bust tactics! 

 

 

 

 Nah, only kidding.  I can't actually remember, but about 1c below average I think

 

 I think you'll be nearer the mark than me although I've nothing to lose.  Good luck! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Whether Idle  
#20 Posted : 04 November 2016 18:54:03(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

Quite possibly a few people (myself included) went too low as the cool start looks like being steamrollered for a while.

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The Johnson Government had a choice on whether to tackle the virus hard- or let it spread- they've shown they care more for their money than they do for the health and the safety of the British People.
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