Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,421  Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
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Apologies I am late and out of time again this month. Brief summary below. Please go ahead and post your CET predictions for October. Entries will remain open with no penalties until 23:59 on Sunday. Historic summary for October 1971-2000 10.4C 1981-2010 10.7C 1996-2015 11.2C All three of the last Octobers have been fairly warm. 11.0C last year (so only a little above average) but 12.5C in both 2014 and 2013. 2012 was cold at 9.7C. Latest model output 850 temperatures looking fairly average overall for the first half of the month. A cool start then turning a bit warmer and then cooler again. My CET estimate for the first 13 days of the month suggests a CET of just under 12C by the 13th which is bang in line with the 1981-2010 mean. My gut feeling based on the latest BBC forecasts is that if anything the actual temperatures will probably end up being a little warmer than this. Met Office contingency planners overview Strong suggestion of above average temperatures with a westerly Atlantic dominated month. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/p/Forecast-temp-OND-v1.pdf Edited by moderator 17 November 2016 10:55:09(UTC)
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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 16,530  Location: Sidcup, Kent.
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Ha'way the lads |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC) Posts: 2,835 Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl
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Quite a hard one to call, this one. I think I'll go for 11.1°C. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 27,532 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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13.56c. For me please going by the average for the last 3 years. CHANGE to 12.3c. Please. Edited by user 01 October 2016 09:18:53(UTC)
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Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 6,414 Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Looking like a remarkably settled and dry start not sure how warm it will be. Dont think it will be a cold month though, so 12.1c for me please. Thanks again GW for all your hard work with this.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 863 Location: St Albans
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman  13.56c. For me please going by the average for the last 3 years. Not sure your maths is correct there? Edited by user 30 September 2016 09:48:21(UTC)
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Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl) Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 30/10/2014(UTC) Posts: 2,155 Location: Central Solihull
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11.2C for me please! Grandad
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,197
Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Taking a bit of a punt here. I'll go for 12.0C |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/12/2006(UTC)
Posts: 75
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/12/2010(UTC) Posts: 176 Location: Sussex
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,675 Location: Folkestone
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman My Back Yard 2013 14.5c 2014 16.1c 2015 13.3c. total 43.9c. Divide by 3 = 14.633333 so I went for 13.56...  
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 47,360 Location: St Helens
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After a rubbish September result, I think I'm going to have to gamble from here on in 
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"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,794
Location: Dundee
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 22,337
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 13.56c. For me please going by the average for the last 3 years. That would be the warmest October on record! 9.9C for me, please. I think we'll see a sudden chill descend before the month is out. |
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,452
Location: Bournemouth
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I just can`t see a 5c+ drop in the cet during October and think it will remain warm for a while yet so I'm going for 11.85c Edited by user 30 September 2016 15:52:14(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 30,692  Location: Albion
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I'm watching the GFS ensembles with interest .......  |
Andy Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News " When party rules, the people do not rule, but merely such a portion of the people as can manage to get control of party.." - James Fenimore Cooper , 1838 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,061
Location: Brockley
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Starting mild and dry, ending horrendously wet. 12.4C |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 3,991
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,323
Location: Central Southern England
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12.72 for me please GW. Thanks. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 4,336 Location: Oldham
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