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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 29 September 2016 22:25:36(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,125

Apologies I am late and out of time again this month. Brief summary below. Please go ahead and post your CET predictions for October. Entries will remain open with no penalties until 23:59 on Sunday.

Historic summary for October

1971-2000 10.4C

1981-2010 10.7C

1996-2015 11.2C

All three of the last Octobers have been fairly warm. 11.0C last year (so only a little above average) but 12.5C in both 2014 and 2013. 2012 was cold at 9.7C.

Latest model output

850 temperatures looking fairly average overall for the first half of the month. A cool start then turning a bit warmer and then cooler again.

My CET estimate for the first 13 days of the month suggests a CET of just under 12C by the 13th which is bang in line with the 1981-2010 mean.  My gut feeling based on the latest BBC forecasts is that if anything the actual temperatures will probably end up being a little warmer than this.

Met Office contingency planners overview

Strong suggestion of above average temperatures with a westerly Atlantic dominated month.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/p/Forecast-temp-OND-v1.pdf

Edited by moderator 17 November 2016 10:55:09(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline Dougie  
#2 Posted : 29 September 2016 23:06:18(UTC)
Dougie

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
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Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

11.7°c please.

Ha'way the lads
Offline Bolty  
#3 Posted : 29 September 2016 23:21:25(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,337
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl

Quite a hard one to call, this one. I think I'll go for 11.1°C.
Offline ARTzeman  
#4 Posted : 30 September 2016 07:04:02(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,757
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

13.56c.  For me please going by the average for the last 3 years.

 

CHANGE to 12.3c. Please.

Edited by user 01 October 2016 09:18:53(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#5 Posted : 30 September 2016 07:25:05(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,603
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Looking like a remarkably settled and dry start not sure how warm it will be. Dont think it will be a cold month though, so 12.1c for me please. 

Thanks again GW for all your hard work with this.

 

 

Offline GezM  
#6 Posted : 30 September 2016 09:46:00(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 713
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

13.56c.  For me please going by the average for the last 3 years.

Not sure your maths is correct there?

Edited by user 30 September 2016 09:48:21(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Grandad  
#7 Posted : 30 September 2016 10:10:57(UTC)
Grandad

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 30/10/2014(UTC)
Posts: 2,143
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Central Solihull

11.2C for me please!

Grandad

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#8 Posted : 30 September 2016 10:12:47(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,762
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Taking a bit of a punt here.

I'll go for

12.0C

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline kendalian  
#9 Posted : 30 September 2016 11:16:11(UTC)
kendalian

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/12/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74

11.3C for me please!

Offline Sussex snow magnet  
#10 Posted : 30 September 2016 11:22:57(UTC)
Sussex snow magnet

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 163
Man
Location: Sussex

11.9 for ne please.
Online Gusty  
#11 Posted : 30 September 2016 11:31:02(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,264
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

  

   My Back Yard  2013   14.5c

                                    2014   16.1c

                                    2015   13.3c.          total    43.9c.    Divide by 3 = 14.633333    so I went for 13.56...

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Online Saint Snow  
#12 Posted : 30 September 2016 11:38:34(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 43,279
Man
Location: St Helens

After a rubbish September result, I think I'm going to have to gamble from here on in

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Norseman  
#13 Posted : 30 September 2016 11:44:19(UTC)
Norseman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,782
Location: Dundee

11.8C for me please.
Offline Rob K  
#14 Posted : 30 September 2016 13:06:11(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,960
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

13.56c.  For me please going by the average for the last 3 years.

That would be the warmest October on record!

 

9.9C for me, please. I think we'll see a sudden chill descend before the month is out.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline springsunshine  
#15 Posted : 30 September 2016 15:18:14(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,164
Location: Bournemouth

I just can`t see a 5c+ drop in the cet during October and think it will remain warm for a while yet so I'm going for  11.85c

Edited by user 30 September 2016 15:52:14(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Essan  
#16 Posted : 30 September 2016 15:35:09(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 29,893
Antarctica
Location: Albion

I'm watching the GFS ensembles with interest .......

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.

Weather & Earth Science News

Cape Wrath and Beyond - My blog for the Cape Wrath Trail 2019 charity walk.

Offline TimS  
#17 Posted : 30 September 2016 15:54:58(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,507
Location: Brockley

Starting mild and dry, ending horrendously wet. 12.4C
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline lanky  
#18 Posted : 30 September 2016 16:03:26(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,510
Man

12.0C for me please

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Bertwhistle  
#19 Posted : 30 September 2016 16:15:31(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,674
Location: Central Southern England

12.72 for me please GW.

Thanks.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Medlock Vale Weather  
#20 Posted : 30 September 2016 16:34:40(UTC)
Medlock Vale Weather

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 4,335
Man
Location: Oldham

9.7C for me please.

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 93 metres/305 feet above sea level.

Website: http://medlockweather.weebly.com

Weather station location: http://bit.ly/VI9CNu

What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/...wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

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