Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,125
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Apologies I am late and out of time again this month. Brief summary below. Please go ahead and post your CET predictions for October. Entries will remain open with no penalties until 23:59 on Sunday. Historic summary for October 1971-2000 10.4C 1981-2010 10.7C 1996-2015 11.2C All three of the last Octobers have been fairly warm. 11.0C last year (so only a little above average) but 12.5C in both 2014 and 2013. 2012 was cold at 9.7C. Latest model output 850 temperatures looking fairly average overall for the first half of the month. A cool start then turning a bit warmer and then cooler again. My CET estimate for the first 13 days of the month suggests a CET of just under 12C by the 13th which is bang in line with the 1981-2010 mean. My gut feeling based on the latest BBC forecasts is that if anything the actual temperatures will probably end up being a little warmer than this. Met Office contingency planners overview Strong suggestion of above average temperatures with a westerly Atlantic dominated month. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/p/Forecast-temp-OND-v1.pdf Edited by moderator 17 November 2016 10:55:09(UTC)
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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 16,530   Location: Sidcup, Kent.
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Ha'way the lads |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC) Posts: 2,337 Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl
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Quite a hard one to call, this one. I think I'll go for 11.1°C. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 25,757 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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13.56c. For me please going by the average for the last 3 years. CHANGE to 12.3c. Please. Edited by user 01 October 2016 09:18:53(UTC)
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Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 5,603 Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Looking like a remarkably settled and dry start not sure how warm it will be. Dont think it will be a cold month though, so 12.1c for me please. Thanks again GW for all your hard work with this.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 713
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman  13.56c. For me please going by the average for the last 3 years. Not sure your maths is correct there? Edited by user 30 September 2016 09:48:21(UTC)
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Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl) Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 30/10/2014(UTC) Posts: 2,143 Location: Central Solihull
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11.2C for me please! Grandad
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,762
Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Taking a bit of a punt here. I'll go for 12.0C |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/12/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/12/2010(UTC) Posts: 163 Location: Sussex
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,264 Location: Folkestone
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman My Back Yard 2013 14.5c 2014 16.1c 2015 13.3c. total 43.9c. Divide by 3 = 14.633333 so I went for 13.56...  
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 43,279 Location: St Helens
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After a rubbish September result, I think I'm going to have to gamble from here on in 
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Trump on Jeffrey Epstein: "I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,782
Location: Dundee
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,960
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 13.56c. For me please going by the average for the last 3 years. That would be the warmest October on record! 9.9C for me, please. I think we'll see a sudden chill descend before the month is out. |
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,164
Location: Bournemouth
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I just can`t see a 5c+ drop in the cet during October and think it will remain warm for a while yet so I'm going for 11.85c Edited by user 30 September 2016 15:52:14(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 29,893  Location: Albion
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I'm watching the GFS ensembles with interest .......  |
Andy Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.
Weather & Earth Science News
Cape Wrath and Beyond - My blog for the Cape Wrath Trail 2019 charity walk. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,507
Location: Brockley
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Starting mild and dry, ending horrendously wet. 12.4C |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 3,510
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,674
Location: Central Southern England
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12.72 for me please GW. Thanks. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 4,335 Location: Oldham
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