Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 47,261  Location: Loughborough
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I suspect this topic may get a fair bit of use over the next few days. The highest risk areas for intense storms are, SW England, Wales, The Midlands, Northern England and parts of Scotland for late Tuesday and into Wednesday at the moment. Open to change as always. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,305 Location: Sedgley West Midlands
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Seems to be west is best at the moment with SW, Wales, Irish Sea - and heading north into northern England and Scotland Open to change and nothing is certain till closer to the time |
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 47,261 Location: Loughborough
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 47,261 Location: Loughborough
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 19/05/2007(UTC) Posts: 27,520 Location: Congleton, East Cheshire. 340ft ASL
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Estofex have a level 1 issued for tomorrow. Surface dew points of up to 24 C in a few places and Lifted Index at up to -10, according to GFS  http://www.estofex.org/ |
John. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,768
Location: Harpenden, Herts
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Carol Kirkwood on Radio 2 going for 'Severe lightning' in tonights t/storms. Unfortunately NIMBY |
Harpenden, Herts. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 7,841  Location: North Yorkshire
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Originally Posted by: DeeDee  Carol Kirkwood on Radio 2 going for 'Severe lightning' in tonights t/storms. Unfortunately NIMBY Rest easy. She just said "Humdingers" on BBC Breakfast, so no-one's getting a look in. |
Ben, Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire 30m asl She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 18,859
Location: South Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: Arcus Rest easy. She just said "Humdingers" on BBC Breakfast, so no-one's getting a look in. 😎 You actually look quite well placed Ben but it could be a late night show. Edit: latest suggests an increased risk for Yorkshire Weds evening as the plume lingers Edited by user 19 July 2016 07:09:12(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified |
Neil Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary) Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 7,841 Location: North Yorkshire
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Originally Posted by: nsrobins 😎 You actually look quite well placed Ben but it could be a late night show. Edit: latest suggests an increased risk for Yorkshire Weds evening as the plume lingers Hi Neil - risk overnight mainly west of here I think - NW Eng, Cumbria and points north. We may get some tail end stuff first thing Wed morning. Main risk here looks like being Wed PM and into evening as warmer air hangs on as you say with maxes now looking like 29c. |
Ben, Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire 30m asl She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 7,841 Location: North Yorkshire
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Ben, Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire 30m asl She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 47,261 Location: Loughborough
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Originally Posted by: Arcus Warnings have been updated by MetO, though it's really just a tweak on coverage and timings.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/
Still covering Wales, Central and Northern areas of the UK. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 7,841 Location: North Yorkshire
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From the GFS 06z, a good example of CAPE/LI eye candy that can be misleading: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME06_12_11.png Stacks of potential, but inhibition will bring it all to nought for many at that time! Overnight though is a different story for Wales, NW England into Scotland as those capping factors reduce. |
Ben, Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire 30m asl She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 19,814 Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL
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Originally Posted by: Arcus From the GFS 06z, a good example of CAPE/LI eye candy that can be misleading: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME06_12_11.png Stacks of potential, but inhibition will bring it all to nought for many at that time! Overnight though is a different story for Wales, NW England into Scotland as those capping factors reduce. Spot on  Still lots of energy to tap into later this evening though as heights weaken I'm hoping, as a direct hit won't happen here today, that there will be some nice nighttime lightning over the Pennines. Tomorrow looks rather messy and complex! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 3,272 Location: Wirral
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Satellite shows band of precip about to hit northern tip of france. Will be into SW England by about 5pm i reckon. Fingers crossed for some fireworks. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/08/2007(UTC)
Posts: 108
Location: Reading
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 47,261 Location: Loughborough
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 7,841 Location: North Yorkshire
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With regard to the model runs showing rainfall, also be aware that some of the storms may well be quite high-based - therefore often not a huge rainfall footprint, but a good show of lightning.
Here's the GFS 12z CAPE/LI for tomorrow lunchtime:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME12_24_11.png
Looks amazing once again - but remember that inhibition! Most places Midlands SE-ward are likely not to see much in the way of storms.
Edited by user 19 July 2016 17:38:44(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified |
Ben, Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire 30m asl She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC) Posts: 5,087 Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m
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Still 30C currently and there is a bank of altocumulus castellanus passing overhead now. Signs that the atmosphere is becoming less stable around here. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 19,814 Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL
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Originally Posted by: Bolty Still 30C currently and there is a bank of altocumulus castellanus passing overhead now. Signs that the atmosphere is becoming less stable around here. Same here Bolty. Hope you catch a flasher tonight so I can pop to the Peaks and view it from afar   |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 7,841 Location: North Yorkshire
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Yes that cloud field that's expanded from mid-Wales NE'wd into NW Eng, N. Mids, Yorks may hold some interest - worth watching. |
Ben, Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire 30m asl She stayed with me until she moved to Notting Hill, She said it was the place she needs to be Where the cocaine is fair trade, and frequently displayed, is the Buena Vista Social Club CD
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