Time for a new month. Last month of winter coming up. Will we see a below average month. Personally I think not.

Please place your CET predictions in this thread. Deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Sunday evening (31st). Entries will be accepted until 23:59 on the 2nd.

February historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 4.2C
1981-2010: 4.4C
1996-2015: 4.9C

There have been very few cold Februaries since 1996. The only significantly below average years were 2010 (2.8C) and 2013 (3.2C) and neither of these were especially cold. Warmest Februaries recently were 2014 with 6.2C and 2011 with 6.4C.

Here is a chart of the February CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Looking close to or slightly above average on the T2m figures in the south but slightly below average perhaps further north.

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/o/A3_plots-temp-FMA_v1.pdf
Contingency planners forecast suggests the probabilities slightly favour an above average February but the signal is not that strong.

Some very interesting comments made:-

• El Nino - strong event favours mid Atlantic ridge at this time of year (so winds coming more from the NW rather than W or SW)


• polar vortex weakening. Possible SSW anytime between early Feb and early March. Effects on UK uncertain


• MJO likely to be in a phase in early Feb which is conductive to negative NAO conditions


• QBO strongly positive still favouring a stronger polar vortex and hence positive NAO. QBO impact tends to diminish though in late winter


• Positive SST anomalies near the US and Canadian coast with negative anomaly in mid Atlantic suggests a northerly shift in the pressure pattern favouring a westerly (+ve NAO).

So many factors given conflicting signals means anything could happen!

Pattern matching (JFF)
If we look at years since 1950 when we had very mild Decembers and Januaries there are a number of matches. None saw a cold February - a couple were average (2012 and 1975). The others were all mild or very mild. So does not bode well for cold conditions in February. My gut feel is February will be another mild month overall but we could see one cold spell similar to what we had in January. This might or might not tie in with a SSW.

Here is a first look at the February CET.

Thanks GW 

After a disaster in the Jan comp I will go for 4.4C please 

Really exciting month GW,and although I'm not quite ready to post a prediction yet, I just wanted to bark about how exciting February's outcome will be, given we're on the threshold of a record season. (Hands rubbing with frictional anticipation is not among the emoticons I can find)

And to add of course, thanks for the effort that gives us all a bit of drive.

I shall wait until the 31st to post mine but no doubt it will be another mild month in the upper 5's.

Sticking to 5.0c. For me please.. 📑🌂💧🌀😁

4.7 for me please.

I'm going to have to plump for an exceptionally mild February based on what has passed so far. I now believe winter 2015/16 is on course for the warmest ever with February being very mild. 8.0c is my guess so potentially record breaking as December was.

Looking forward to posting on Sunday. Would love to see a record breaking winter but still in two minds about February's cet

5.1C please

Based on some rough calculations I think we'll probably need about 4.7-4.8 to break the mildest-ever winter record.

So on the basis of maximum dullness, i.e. mild but no overall record, I'll go for 4.62C. 

6.4C Please GW

Hoping to jinx it for the better 

5.75 for me please

5.16c

5.9c for me , thanks

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gary

Predictions are confidently early this month. Enough evidence for me to say slightly cooler at 4.6C.

That's my bid!

I'll go for 5.85C please