It just crossed my mind that the past few years there hasn't really been much of activity in the Atlantic in terms of hurricane activity'. This has been followed by milder winters for the UK & Ireland and most of Western Europe.

I remember Hurricane Ike that made landfall in Houston south Texas in September 2008 (I have friend there) - This was followed by a cold October here, frosty November and December in the UK. We all know what happened in the UK during February 2009?

I remember Hurricane Sandy that battered the eastern seaboard on 28th October 2012. - We all know we had a colder than average winter in 2012/13. - Both Feb/March and even into April there was blocking.

• My question: Are the lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic over the past few years part of the reason why we in the UK) are not seeing any proper sustained cold weather or blocking?


• Just interesting - I am noticing a pattern here - the more Hurricanes/named storms in the Atlantic - the colder our winter usually is. This could be a coincidence I don't know. But I do know that over the past two years the Atlantic seasons have been tranquil and our winters have been relatively mild - Last December 2015 exceptionally mild as you know.   

Next winter could be interesting! It's January and we have already seen our first named storm (Alex).

Just wondering your thoughts on this?- Perhaps the more Atlantic storms /Hurricane's there are - the greater chance the UK will have of experiencing a more blocked pattern during winter!?

So seeing as the past few years - the Atlantic seasons have been very quiet (both in 2013, 2014 & 2015 - which was virtually non-existent) - These has then been followed by milder UK winters ...which (if this is correct) then leads me on to suggest that to have a colder than average winter with a greater chance of snow or blocking etc we need to see more hurricanes in the Atlantic over summer?

2009 was a below average hurricane season and we had the coldest winter for years.

1962 was a below average hurricane season and we had the coldest winter for decades.

1946 was a quiet season and we had the snowiest winter for decades.

The answer is inconclusive 

2009 was a below average hurricane season and we had the coldest winter for years.

1962 was a below average hurricane season and we had the coldest winter for decades.

1946 was a quiet season and we had the snowiest winter for decades.

The answer is inconclusive 

Sure ! So must be a coincidence to have two or what will soon turn out to be three very mild winters  in a row following two very quiet tropical hurricane seasons in the Atlantic.

 

Sure ! So must be a coincidence to have two or what will soon turn out to be three very mild winters  in a row following two very quiet tropical hurricane seasons in the Atlantic.

Yes, it's a coincidence.

Hurricanes cool the SSTs as they move across the ocean because they churn and mix up the waters. Many Hurricanes may lead to lower SSTs in the Mid-Atlantic which could reduce the temperature contrast between N and S and possibly lead to a weaker jet with more blocking.

So it could be a factor but only one amongst many.

Hurricanes cool the SSTs as they move across the ocean because they churn and mix up the waters. Many Hurricanes may lead to lower SSTs in the Mid-Atlantic which could reduce the temperature contrast between N and S and possibly lead to a weaker jet with more blocking.

So it could be a factor but only one amongst many.

In a nutshell. Which makes it all the more difficult to prove given the effects are likely minimal and very tricky to measure.