The WMO doesn't and never has updated its benchmark on a regular basis. In fact it has only ever been updated once.

The first 30 year reference period was established by the WMO in 1934 at which point it used the period 1901-1930. This remained the reference period until 1982 when the WMO agreed to make an update. But it took a while for the update to be formalised and eventually the period 1961-1990 was used. It has remained unchanged ever since. Given there was 60 years between the original reference period and the update, don't expect a further update any time soon.

 

Thanks GW. Do you (or anybody) know why the WMO still uses the 1961-1990 mean to benchmark against with regards anomalies? This is posted on one of the MetO HadCET pages:

"Note that anomalies (and normals) quoted here are w.r.t. the period 1961-1990. This is the current standard period of reference for climatological data as recommended by the WMO (World Met. Organisation)."

 

Why change a benchmark? I really don't see why one would and I never have.

Someone explain the reasoning to me please.

After being well above average for most of the month, July ended up in line with the 1981-2010 mean

August has put  bit of a dent in the CET anomaly but still we are well above average for 2017

August has put  bit of a dent in the CET anomaly but still we are well above average for 2017

 

It is beginning to look like Sept might be propped up by tropical airs arriving, via major 'cane remnants' passing over us?

A cool September knocks back the positive anomaly a little further

 

Why change a benchmark? I really don't see why one would and I never have.

Someone explain the reasoning to me please.

Well, because the 1961-1990 average wasn't always the one used. In 1989, quite obviously, they couldn't use the 1961-90 average. But now they are. So that means, they've changed a benchmark.

I was looking for some genuine reasoning- there will be some somewhere- for keeping this as the average. Do you know the reason?

A warm October pushes us back to 1C above the 1971-2000 long run mean

A small reduction in the positive anomaly after a slightly below average November. We are still more than 0.5C above the 1981-2010 mean though. That could change in December.

My own backyard Autumn came in at 11.73c.   Anomaly   5.1c.

My latest estimate is that the 2017 CET will finish at 10.54C. I have copied below the table of predictions for this year. Currently it looks like Caz may be the winner but it is very tight so it could be Dingle Rob instead.

Time to start making your predictions for the 2018 CET. Please post predictions directly into this thread. 

Here is a reminder of the way the competition works. These details can also be found in the first post of this thread.

This thread tracks the movements in the Central England Temperature throughout the whole of the year. Just for fun if you would like to make a prediction of what you think the CET will be for 2018 as a whole please post it into this thread.

To enter the competition in this thread all you need to do is post your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2018 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note:
- your prediction should be to two decimal places; and
- your prediction needs to be unique so we have no more than one winner at the end of the year (so first come first served on any particular figure).

Any entry that is not unique and is not adjusted will be amended by me to the nearest available figure (either up or down).

Entries close at 23:59 on 7th January 2018 so you have about a week to get your entries in.

To assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (dark green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (light green line) and a 10 year moving average (light blue line).

The 1981-2010 mean is 9.97C.

Between 1994 and 2007 the CET was consistently well above average. From 2008 to 2013 the CET was much more variable with some quite cool years. Since 2014 the consistent warmer theme has returned. Details below:

2008 9.96C
2009 10.11C
2010 8.83C (somewhat distorted by the exceptionally cold December. Otherwise would have finished closer to 9.3C)
2011 10.70C
2012 9.71C
2013 9.57C
2014 10.93C (all time CET record)
2015 10.27C (somewhat distorted by the exceptionally mild November and December - otherwise would have finished under 10C)
2016 10.33C
2017 10.54C (estimate) 

I will go for the same as this year's poor effort..... 10.05 please.
Grandad

10.18C for me please.

My latest estimate is that the 2017 CET will finish at 10.54C. I have copied below the table of predictions for this year. Currently it looks like Caz may be the winner but it is very tight so it could be Dingle Rob instead.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Mine was 10.95c not 10.15c although miles out 

 

Mine was 10.95c not 10.15c although miles out 

Well your post in the Jan 2017 CET thread says otherwise 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=855274#post855274

This will be a near-record breaker- with a decent 'extended' summer: after an average opening and a variable early spring, May to Sep will be 1989-like.

10.88

9.77c please