Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

9 Pages123>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 03 January 2016 10:12:08(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,147

This thread tracks the movements in the Central England Temperature throughout the whole of the year.

To enter the competition in this thread all you need to do is make your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2019 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note:
- your prediction should be to two decimal places; and
- your prediction needs to be unique so we have no more than one winner at the end of the year (so first come first served on any particular figure).

Any entry that is not unique and is not adjusted will be amended by me to the nearest available figure (either up or down).

Entries close at 23:59 on 7th January 2019 - please send entries to me via private message.

To assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (dark green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (light green line) and a 10 year moving average (light blue line).

The 1981-2010 mean is 9.97C.

Between 1994 and 2007 the CET was consistently well above average. From 2008 to 2013 the CET was much more variable with some quite cool years. Since 2014 the consistent warmer theme has returned. Details below:

2008 9.96C
2009 10.11C
2010 8.83C (somewhat distorted by the exceptionally cold December. Otherwise would have finished closer to 9.3C)
2011 10.70C
2012 9.71C
2013 9.57C
2014 10.93C (all time CET record)
2015 10.27C (somewhat distorted by the exceptionally mild November and December - otherwise would have finished under 10C)
2016 10.33C
2017 10.56C
2018 10.68C

Edited by user 08 January 2019 04:29:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

Wanna join the discussion?! Login to your TheWeatherOutlook forum account. New Registrations are disabled.

Offline ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 03 January 2016 14:57:01(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,071
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Being Brave Now... Choice for myself is.....9.78c. Please. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

ErghKommol  
#3 Posted : 03 January 2016 15:11:09(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

9.77 for me please

Offline springsunshine  
#4 Posted : 03 January 2016 15:16:01(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,189
Location: Bournemouth

I think it will become a rare year to get a cet under 10c now so im going for

10.55c please

Offline Bertwhistle  
#5 Posted : 03 January 2016 16:24:05(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,769
Location: Central Southern England

10.29C for me please GW; a fairly safe bet judging by previous years' outcomes, but I'm gambling on a cool autumn.

Thanks for running this again.

Amazing how meteoric the rise in running mean was over the last two decades, before trailing off again. 

Edited by user 03 January 2016 16:26:44(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#6 Posted : 03 January 2016 16:29:57(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,624
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

A scorchio summer taking us to a new record 10.98c

Thanks

 

 

Offline redmoons  
#7 Posted : 03 January 2016 17:46:22(UTC)
redmoons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,220
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

10.95c record year to go with the hottest year recorded on the planet.

Hopefully this time it will get stickied 

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Offline Essan  
#8 Posted : 03 January 2016 18:05:05(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 29,977
Antarctica
Location: Albion

Although I expect 2016 to be the warmest year on record globally, that will not necessary be the case for an obscure island off the west coast of Europe .....

If the MetO are right, a cool Feb/Mar could temper  the summer heatwave   and so I am going for ......


....... 10.34c

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.

Weather & Earth Science News

Cape Wrath and Beyond - My blog for the Cape Wrath Trail 2019 charity walk.

Offline The Professional  
#9 Posted : 03 January 2016 18:18:02(UTC)
The Professional

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 31/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 152
United Kingdom
Location: Winchester

9.99 please GW. Thanks!
Offline lanky  
#10 Posted : 03 January 2016 19:36:16(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,570
Man

I'm going for a supercharged El Nino year at 11.01C

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Snow Hoper  
#11 Posted : 03 January 2016 20:02:05(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,055
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

10.63C please 

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Online Roonie  
#12 Posted : 03 January 2016 21:19:48(UTC)
Roonie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,308
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

10.47 please

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline NeilM  
#13 Posted : 03 January 2016 23:52:33(UTC)
NeilM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 936
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Walney, Barrow

Cheers for running this again GW.

 

I doubt I'll be able to get near the yearly CET two years running, but I think we'll end up below 10C, so I'll go for 9.83C.

Walney Island, Barrow - 0m asl

My New website, www.omuiri-photography.co.uk, please visit, feedback welcome.

Online Stormchaser  
#14 Posted : 03 January 2016 23:53:41(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,772
Man
Location: West Hants

May as well hope that we get a low solar activity + easterly QBO combination helping to drive cold weather from early on next winter, which in combination with a likely cold Feb/Mar period this year could be sufficient to produce a sub-10*C annual CET.

How's 9.80*C to shake the boat? 

 

Now just watch as the summer turns out baking hot from start to finish for the first time in a decade 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Dougie  
#15 Posted : 04 January 2016 00:36:59(UTC)
Dougie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

I think it may just squeeze above ten, so going for 10.01°c.

Thanks Simon.

Ha'way the lads
Offline SJV  
#16 Posted : 04 January 2016 06:12:13(UTC)
SJV

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 17,941
Man
Location: Sheffield, 100m ASL

10.88 please!
CAPE-steve

Follow Steel City Skies on Facebook for daily weather forecasts for Sheffield!

Recognise the hallucinatory nature of your reality.

Offline Rob K  
#17 Posted : 04 January 2016 07:51:33(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,985
Location: Northeast Hampshire

9.95C please, a cold spring but a hot summer a la 2013 (and the first ever 20C monthly CET as a bonus!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline rickm  
#18 Posted : 04 January 2016 09:32:42(UTC)
rickm

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2007(UTC)
Posts: 613
Location: Maidstone

I'll go for 9.88 please

Offline wallaw  
#19 Posted : 04 January 2016 09:43:08(UTC)
wallaw

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,091
Man
Location: Stockton-on-Tees

10.35 for me please if it isn't too late

Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

Offline Jonesy  
#20 Posted : 04 January 2016 09:43:36(UTC)
Jonesy

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/07/2008(UTC)
Posts: 4,003
Man
Location: Medway

10.44 please GW

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .

Users browsing this topic
Guest
9 Pages123>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP