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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 03 January 2016 10:12:08(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,286

This thread tracks the movements in the Central England Temperature throughout the whole of the year.

To enter the current competition in this thread all you need to do is make your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2020 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note:
- your prediction should be to two decimal places; and
- your prediction needs to be unique so we have no more than one winner at the end of the year (so first come first served on any particular figure).

Any entry that is not unique and is not adjusted will be amended by me to the nearest available figure (either up or down).

Entries close at 23:59 on 5th January 2019 - please send entries to me via private message.

To assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (dark green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (light green line) and a 10 year moving average (light blue line).


The 1981-2010 mean is 9.97C.

Between 1994 and 2007 the CET was consistently well above average. From 2008 to 2013 the CET was much more variable with some quite cool years. Since 2014 the consistent warmer theme has returned. Details below:

2008 9.96C
2009 10.11C
2010 8.83C (somewhat distorted by the exceptionally cold December. Otherwise would have finished closer to 9.3C)
2011 10.70C
2012 9.71C
2013 9.57C
2014 10.93C (all time CET record)
2015 10.27C (somewhat distorted by the exceptionally mild November and December - otherwise would have finished under 10C)
2016 10.33C
2017 10.56C
2018 10.68C

Edited by moderator 08 February 2020 20:41:02(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 03 January 2016 14:57:01(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,226
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Being Brave Now... Choice for myself is.....9.78c. Please. 

Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn
#3 Posted : 03 January 2016 15:11:09(UTC)

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

9.77 for me please

Offline springsunshine  
#4 Posted : 03 January 2016 15:16:01(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bournemouth

I think it will become a rare year to get a cet under 10c now so im going for

10.55c please

Offline Bertwhistle  
#5 Posted : 03 January 2016 16:24:05(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,148
Location: Central Southern England

10.29C for me please GW; a fairly safe bet judging by previous years' outcomes, but I'm gambling on a cool autumn.

Thanks for running this again.

Amazing how meteoric the rise in running mean was over the last two decades, before trailing off again. 

Edited by user 03 January 2016 16:26:44(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Remember Finlake!
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#6 Posted : 03 January 2016 16:29:57(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 6,187
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

A scorchio summer taking us to a new record 10.98c




Offline redmoons  
#7 Posted : 03 January 2016 17:46:22(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,300
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

10.95c record year to go with the hottest year recorded on the planet.

Hopefully this time it will get stickied 

ASL 35m
Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Offline Essan  
#8 Posted : 03 January 2016 18:05:05(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 30,542
Location: Albion

Although I expect 2016 to be the warmest year on record globally, that will not necessary be the case for an obscure island off the west coast of Europe .....

If the MetO are right, a cool Feb/Mar could temper  the summer heatwave   and so I am going for ......

....... 10.34c

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News
Offline The Professional  
#9 Posted : 03 January 2016 18:18:02(UTC)
The Professional

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 31/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 161
United Kingdom
Location: Kings Worthy

9.99 please GW. Thanks!
Offline lanky  
#10 Posted : 03 January 2016 19:36:16(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,854

I'm going for a supercharged El Nino year at 11.01C

Richmond, Surrey
Offline Snow Hoper  
#11 Posted : 03 January 2016 20:02:05(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,063
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

10.63C please 

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!
Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.
Offline Roonie  
#12 Posted : 03 January 2016 21:19:48(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,377
Location: North Worcestershire

10.47 please

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire
Offline NeilM  
#13 Posted : 03 January 2016 23:52:33(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 936
United Kingdom
Location: Walney, Barrow

Cheers for running this again GW.


I doubt I'll be able to get near the yearly CET two years running, but I think we'll end up below 10C, so I'll go for 9.83C.

Walney Island, Barrow - 0m asl
My New website, www.omuiri-photography.co.uk, please visit, feedback welcome.
Offline Stormchaser  
#14 Posted : 03 January 2016 23:53:41(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,863
Location: West Hants

May as well hope that we get a low solar activity + easterly QBO combination helping to drive cold weather from early on next winter, which in combination with a likely cold Feb/Mar period this year could be sufficient to produce a sub-10*C annual CET.

How's 9.80*C to shake the boat? 


Now just watch as the summer turns out baking hot from start to finish for the first time in a decade 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
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Offline Dougie  
#15 Posted : 04 January 2016 00:36:59(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

I think it may just squeeze above ten, so going for 10.01°c.

Thanks Simon.

Ha'way the lads
Offline SJV  
#16 Posted : 04 January 2016 06:12:13(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 18,685
Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL

10.88 please!
Model output summaries without the agenda.
Offline Rob K  
#17 Posted : 04 January 2016 07:51:33(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 21,900
Location: Northeast Hampshire

9.95C please, a cold spring but a hot summer a la 2013 (and the first ever 20C monthly CET as a bonus!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline rickm  
#18 Posted : 04 January 2016 09:32:42(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2007(UTC)
Posts: 617
Location: Maidstone

I'll go for 9.88 please

Offline wallaw  
#19 Posted : 04 January 2016 09:43:08(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,091
Location: Stockton-on-Tees

10.35 for me please if it isn't too late



Offline Jonesy  
#20 Posted : 04 January 2016 09:43:36(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/07/2008(UTC)
Posts: 4,029
Location: Medway

10.44 please GW

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !
RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .
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