Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

13 Pages«<10111213>
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Online Devonian  
#221 Posted : 01 January 2016 12:37:45(UTC)
Devonian

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 26,870
Man
Location: East Dartmoor

Not sure if this has been discussed but how does this December compare in a standard deviation kind of way to other record months? Or, I think I'm asking, how record is it?

I guess another way of looking at it is that a tm airstream persisted for much of the month. A tm airstream perhaps a degree warmer than we might expect? Or brought to us more directly from the far SW than is usual? We didn't smash maxima much we smashed persistence of airmass?

It's interesting reading other observation as that few other months could do this since we'd expect less cloud, the odd clear night, some cold night, in other months. I guess we might, next EN, see a November the same, one that averaged 11C now seem possible, or October and 14C plus. But, not later winter or spring months I guess.

"In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way"

Nigel Farage, Daily Mirror, 16/5/2016

"I think the mistake the government made - led by Theresa May - from the start was to try and claim that a country that had voted 17 million to leave the EU, 16 million to stay, wanted a 100% Brexit"

Osborne, 22/12/18.

Offline LeedsLad123  
#222 Posted : 01 January 2016 12:39:08(UTC)
LeedsLad123

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/11/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,671
Man
Location: Leeds

I think it would be interesting to see the average highs and lows of these record months and whether excessive cloud influenced produced very mild nights rather than warm days. I'm sure March 2012 had the warmest average high of any March? Or maybe I am mistaken.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Offline Global Warming  
#223 Posted : 01 January 2016 12:42:05(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 Go to Quoted Post
I think it would be interesting to see the average highs and lows of these record months and whether excessive cloud influenced produced very mild nights rather than warm days. I'm sure March 2012 had the warmest average high of any March? Or maybe I am mistaken.

Best way to see the ranked maxima and minima is at these links

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_max_sort.txt

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_min_sort.txt

In terms of maximum temperatures March 2012 equalled March 1957. But there were two warmer years - 1948 and 1938. In fact 1938 was a full degree warmer.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#224 Posted : 01 January 2016 13:20:06(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

Annual CET competition - December update

Here are the final tables for the 2015 competition.

Congratulations to lanky who is our winner this year cool. It is only fitting really as he has been at the top of the table for 5 months this year, more than anyone else.

It was very tight though in the end as sussex snow magnet finished just 0.04C behind and Taylor1740 just 0.24C behind.

Our leader last month John S2 dropped to 7th this month. He does have the distinction of being the only person to be in the top 10 in the table in every month during 2015.

A number of people in the top 10 finished at their highest position of the year including Darren S, nouska and redmoons.

Several large climbers throughout the table including Surrey John, moonmin75, cowman and Gavin P all going in the right direction. It is all relative of course as nobody made a close prediction this month but some were closer than others.

Worth noting that if you had predicted the 1981-2010 mean every month throughout the year your error would have been 12.89C. So that puts the final table into perspective.

Thank you to everyone for taking part in another hard fought competition this year. Lets see what 2016 brings. Happy New Year to everyone.

Monthly positions

Monthly prediction errors

Yellow shading indicates an error of 0.25C or less. Orange shading means the person did not make a prediction in that month so an error was automatically calculated in accordance with the competition rules.

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 01 January 2016 13:29:01(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Snowshoe  
#225 Posted : 01 January 2016 13:21:18(UTC)
Snowshoe

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 31/12/2014(UTC)
Posts: 48
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Final Hadley figure for December is 9.68C

So 1.6C above the previous December record of 8.1C. Needless to say no one in the competition got even close to this figure.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

 

Congratulations, though, on winning the December round.

 

Has there ever been a month before where the winning prediction was out by more than two degrees? 

Offline Global Warming  
#226 Posted : 01 January 2016 13:36:05(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

Originally Posted by: Snowshoe Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Congratulations, though, on winning the December round.

 

Has there ever been a month before where the winning prediction was out by more than two degrees? 

No there hasn't. The closest we came was the incredibly cold March 2013.

Most people were way over 2C out but two people did get closer. Stormchaser managed an error of 1.85C and Charmhills was only 1.2C out.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline KevBrads1  
#227 Posted : 01 January 2016 13:48:52(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,486
Location: Irlam

The gap between September and December's CET mean was less 3.0C, that has got to be a record.

The gap between the two months' minima was even less, it was just 1.1C!

December's CET mean minimum was higher than May's!

 

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline springsunshine  
#228 Posted : 01 January 2016 14:07:53(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,158
Location: Bournemouth

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

The gap between September and December's CET mean was less 3.0C, that has got to be a record.

The gap between the two months' minima was even less, it was just 1.1C!

December's CET mean minimum was higher than May's!

 

Quite an incredible month!

Also comparing Decenber with May the mean temp imby for May was 12.4c, December 12c so last month just 0.4c cooler than may and 0.3c warmer than November. Certainly a month we may never see the likes of again!

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#229 Posted : 01 January 2016 14:24:38(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,718
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Devonian Go to Quoted Post

Not sure if this has been discussed but how does this December compare in a standard deviation kind of way to other record months? Or, I think I'm asking, how record is it?

I guess another way of looking at it is that a tm airstream persisted for much of the month. A tm airstream perhaps a degree warmer than we might expect? Or brought to us more directly from the far SW than is usual? We didn't smash maxima much we smashed persistence of airmass?

It's interesting reading other observation as that few other months could do this since we'd expect less cloud, the odd clear night, some cold night, in other months. I guess we might, next EN, see a November the same, one that averaged 11C now seem possible, or October and 14C plus. But, not later winter or spring months I guess.

Excellent point there - Glad that has been mentioned. Somebody did put a figure up stating that a December as mild as this one has just been has a probability of 1 in 2,871 years. That would not surprise me at all really.

 

Gavin S.

UserPostedImage

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline Dougie  
#230 Posted : 01 January 2016 15:23:22(UTC)
Dougie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

It's been said many times before Simon, but thanks again for the excellent work and devotion displayed in regard to this competition. It's not only the producing of the results, but also the background information you provide which keeps the interest going. I raise a glass to you, Happy New Year.

Ha'way the lads
Edicius81  
#231 Posted : 01 January 2016 15:48:34(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

Originally Posted by: Dougie Go to Quoted Post

It's been said many times before Simon, but thanks again for the excellent work and devotion displayed in regard to this competition. It's not only the producing of the results, but also the background information you provide which keeps the interest going. I raise a glass to you, Happy New Year.

Hear, hear!

Offline Frank H  
#232 Posted : 01 January 2016 16:10:12(UTC)
Frank H

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 118
Location: Wrightington, Wigan

We were all so far out that it meant any of the top 33 in the table at the end of November could have won the annual contest by accurately forecasting (guessing) the December CET

Offline Weathermac  
#233 Posted : 01 January 2016 16:10:32(UTC)
Weathermac

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bedworth Warwickshire

Many thanks GW for your hard work with this excellent competition .
Offline Caz  
#234 Posted : 01 January 2016 18:03:05(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,098
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

An amazing month altogether and I'm glad I have other TWOers to share it with.

I'm fairly happy with my 2015 performance, although it was a pity I had a late penalty in February.  Well done to Lanky for coming top of the table and sticking there for so long.  Well done to all who took part and may you all be with us in 2016.

Many thanks GW! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline lanky  
#235 Posted : 01 January 2016 18:50:45(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,466
Man

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

An amazing month altogether and I'm glad I have other TWOers to share it with.

I'm fairly happy with my 2015 performance, although it was a pity I had a late penalty in February.  Well done to Lanky for coming top of the table and sticking there for so long.  Well done to all who took part and may you all be with us in 2016.

Many thanks GW! 

Thank you for those kind words and thanks to GW for yet again organising such a brilliant competition this year

I was indeed jammy to win this year by a gnat's whisker especially after my "Devon Lock" impersonation in November

hard luck indeed to Sussex Snow Magnet who was just 0.04C behind after a whole years cogitation

Now it's all systems go for 2016

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline cowman  
#236 Posted : 01 January 2016 19:26:48(UTC)
cowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/02/2013(UTC)
Posts: 904
Man
United Kingdom
Location: uttoxeter

Originally Posted by: Dougie Go to Quoted Post

It's been said many times before Simon, but thanks again for the excellent work and devotion displayed in regard to this competition. It's not only the producing of the results, but also the background information you provide which keeps the interest going. I raise a glass to you, Happy New Year.

Dougie says it all, I quite agree.thanks GW.

Offline Sussex snow magnet  
#237 Posted : 01 January 2016 21:04:16(UTC)
Sussex snow magnet

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 163
Man
Location: Sussex

Originally Posted by: lanky Go to Quoted Post

 

Thank you for those kind words and thanks to GW for yet again organising such a brilliant competition this year

I was indeed jammy to win this year by a gnat's whisker especially after my "Devon Lock" impersonation in November

hard luck indeed to Sussex Snow Magnet who was just 0.04C behind after a whole years cogitation

Now it's all systems go for 2016

Well done Lanky deserved win,(hadworked out mid month that it was yours so not to dissapointed by the fine margin) my best effort so far although I'm sure there was a second decimal place in my pmwink

And as stated many thanks to GW for running such a good comp as well as providing all the informstive stats.

Offline NeilM  
#238 Posted : 02 January 2016 00:26:56(UTC)
NeilM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 936
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Walney, Barrow

Well done Lanky.

Slightly disappointed with my slide over the last three months, but can't complain with a top ten finish in the end.

Walney Island, Barrow - 0m asl

My New website, www.omuiri-photography.co.uk, please visit, feedback welcome.

Offline Gavin P  
#239 Posted : 02 January 2016 10:07:31(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,129
Man
United Kingdom

Thanks for all the stats and for running the competition over the past year GW!

Great fun as always.

Congrats to Lanky.

And what to say about December 2015 other than....  

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Global Warming  
#240 Posted : 02 January 2016 10:37:12(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

Thanks everyone for your comments. Looking forward to another interesting year in 2016.

It does take quite a lot of time to manage this competition over the course of a year so apologies that it sometimes takes me a while to publish the end of month reports. It just depends how busy I am at the time and also what day of the week the end of the month falls on. Fortunately the end of the year is always a bit easier as I tend not to be at work.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Users browsing this topic
Similar Topics
December CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 28/11/2017 22:27:35(UTC)
December CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 28/11/2016 23:06:49(UTC)
December CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 27/11/2014 22:31:02(UTC)
December CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 28/11/2013 22:44:26(UTC)
December CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 26/11/2012 22:44:51(UTC)
December CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 25/11/2011 22:48:31(UTC)
December CET watch (Weather)
by Hungry Tiger 20/11/2010 14:43:18(UTC)
13 Pages«<10111213>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP