With the Autumn and Winter months being so mild this year, the annual CET is surely going to be above average, despite us having a less than memorable, average Summer. 

I'm wondering how much variation in the CET there is between the lowest and highest months in a normal year and how it compares to this year because it almost feels like it's been just one continuous season for the past 12 months.

It certainly does especially from mid July to date,reminds me very much of 2011 when the mean temp imby basically flatlined at around 15c from April until December,winter didn`t arrive here until almost mid January 2012 and lasted a whole month,which included an epic cold spell late Januay/early February 2012.So don`t give up hope of a cold snap yet!

December mean to date here is 12.1c

More or less the same for the last 6 Days.......

Met Office Hadley             9.8c.       Anomaly       5.1c.   Provisional to  29th.

Metcheck                         9.82c.     Anomaly       4.82c.

Netweather                    10.42c.     Anomaly       5.33c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather    9.9c.      Anomaly       4.3c.       

Clevedon Weather           11.2c.     Anomaly        4.8c.

Mount  Sorrel                  10.0c.     Anomaly        4.9c.

Peasedown St John          10.5c.     Anomaly        5.2c.

 

My  Annual          11.0    Difference   5.2c.   NOAA Monthly Report...

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I can never remember whether the overnight lows get carried forward or backward. That might make a bit of difference, as New Year' Day is set to dawn with an air frost across central England. So does that count against Dec 31 or Jan 1?

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I can never remember whether the overnight lows get carried forward or backward. That might make a bit of difference, as New Year' Day is set to dawn with an air frost across central England. So does that count against Dec 31 or Jan 1?

I was wondering the same. It would seem odd if the last minimum of the year actually happens in 2016.

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I was wondering the same. It would seem odd if the last minimum of the year actually happens in 2016.

The Hadley site already has today's minimum entered into Provisional data (8.3C) so that must mean that the minimum is taken at 9.00AM on the morning of that date (i.e the 9.00AM figure for 1/1/16 will count as Jan 16 data)

I think...

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The Hadley site already has today's minimum entered into Provisional data (8.3C) so that must mean that the minimum is taken at 9.00AM on the morning of that date (i.e the 9.00AM figure for 1/1/16 will count as Jan 16 data)

I think...

That is correct- and at this time of the year (i.e. not BST) all temps overnight until 9am in 1st Jan. will count towards the minimum for that day.

In most months it makes sense as minima tend to be recorded after midnight, & ergo genuinely on the following day. This month has been so odd, who knows when minima have been recorded.

Having said that, should the temperature drop to its lowest after 9am,  it would oddly be registered as a minimum for the second Jan (even if it was 9.05 on 1st)

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Having said that, should the temperature drop to its lowest after 9am,  it would oddly be registered as a minimum for the second Jan (even if it was 9.05 on 1st)

 

Thanks for clarifying that. I think the example you gave is what confused me - I remember a few winters ago when we had lingering freezing fog (the famous "faux cold"!), the "overnight low" for, say, the 10th of the month was registered as a sharp frost even though by midnight on the 9th/10th a SW wind had kicked in and pushed the temperature up to 7 or 8 degrees. The reason being that it was still foggy and frosty after 9am on the 9th.

 

Similarly some very low "daytime max" readings were scuppered (for official purposes) by the temperature climbing before 9am the next day.

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It will be 7.7C (+3.7C) here and the year is on 8.7C(-0.2C)

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Will today's bright, chilly weather knock the 9.8C down a bit? Where will we end up?It'll still be a good degree and a half above the old record. Let's see what the same margin would be like for the other months:

January 9.0

February 9.4

March 10.7

April 13.3

May 16.6

June 19.7

July 21.2

August 20.7

September 18.3

October 14.8

November 11.6

Personally, I reckon the April one's done for a bit, since it's put 1.2C on in the last few years in two jumps.

I reckon July and October are on the cards over the next few years.

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Here are the warmest UK temperatures each day this month taking 09z to 09z as the reference period. Not what you would expect for December:

The mean temperature anomaly varies from north to south quite a bit with the highest anomalies across southern England. But much of Scotland is way above average. Here are a selection of stations:

Tiree +1.5C
Leuchars +2.9C
Prestwick +3.6C
Shap +4.3C
Rhyl +4.5C
Plymouth +4.7C
Liverpool Crosby +5.2C
Cardiff St Athan +5.3C
Linton-on-Ouse +5.3C
Manston +5.3C
Bristol Filton +5.8C
Bedford +6.1C
Charlwood +6.1C
Northolt +6.2C
Bournemouth Hurn +6.4C

So only 2 days have failed to reach 13C- the April mean. Hurn & Northolt have huge anomalies. I bet certain other S. Coast stations have recorded even higher.

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Looks like we may have equalled the CET date record yesterday. My calculations come up with 10.95C and the record is 11C.

The CET now stands at 9.85C by my figures. The provisional Hadley figures are just about exactly the same as mine so unlikely to be much if anything in the way of a downwards month end adjustment.

Today looks like being the coolest day since the 14th so we will lose 0.1C off the CET today. I estimate a finishing figure of 9.76C.

So only 2 days have failed to reach 13C- the April mean. Hurn & Northolt have huge anomalies. I bet certain other S. Coast stations have recorded even higher.

Possibly although I suspect Bournemouth Hurn will be hard to beat. It is a known frost hollow so the very mild overnight temperatures this month will have resulted in a very large positive anomaly for the minimum temperature.

The other location I meant to mention in my list above was Benson which also has an anomaly of +6.4C. Again this is a well known frost hollow so not surprising it has the highest anomaly.

My own data here in Basingstoke show an anomaly of +6.2C this month. So much of central southern England is seeing anomalies of more than 6C. That is easily the highest anomaly (positive or negative) I have ever recorded in nearly 30 years of keeping records. By comparison December 2010 had an anomaly of just -4.3C here.

I started keeping records in 1986 and of course February 1986 is the coldest month I have data for with a mean of -1.6C (which is colder than the CET mean for that month which just shows hold cold it was in southern England - I was not even using standard exposure instruments at that time so my mean temperature was potentially too high). The figure of -1.6C is 5.8C below average so not far off the anomaly for this month

 

Possibly although I suspect Bournemouth Hurn will be hard to beat. It is a known frost hollow so the very mild overnight temperatures this month will have resulted in a very large positive anomaly for the minimum temperature.

The other location I meant to mention in my list above was Benson which also has an anomaly of +6.4C. Again this is a well known frost hollow so not surprising it has the highest anomaly.

My own data here in Basingstoke show an anomaly of +6.2C this month. So much of central southern England is seeing anomalies of more than 6C. That is easily the highest anomaly (positive or negative) I have ever recorded in nearly 30 years of keeping records. By comparison December 2010 had an anomaly of just -4.3C here.

I started keeping records in 1986 and of course February 1986 is the coldest month I have data for with a mean of -1.6C (which is colder than the CET mean for that month which just shows hold cold it was in southern England - I was not even using standard exposure instruments at that time so my mean temperature was potentially too high). The figure of -1.6C is 5.8C below average so not far off the anomaly for this month

A very pertinent point. I find your data analyses very useful and interesting GW.

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Will today's bright, chilly weather knock the 9.8C down a bit? Where will we end up?

 

It's been on 9.8C for a while so it is actually higher than that (rounded down from 9.85C at the moment). I think it will still be 9.8C to one decimal place after today.

 

 

Let's hope 2016 is the year we finally get a 20C CET month! 

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It's been on 9.8C for a while so it is actually higher than that (rounded down from 9.85C at the moment). I think it will still be 9.8C to one decimal place after today.

 

 

Let's hope 2016 is the year we finally get a 20C CET month! 

Yeah Rob. I'm betting for August- we haven't had a really good one for 11 years but we've had 4 Julys in that time. August has been saving up!

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 Met office Hadley     9.8c.      Anomaly        5.2c.  Provisional to 30th.

 Metcheck                9.75c.     Anomaly        4.76c.

 Netweather            10.44c.    Anomaly        5.35c.

 

The Average for these 3 Providers of a CET   is .....  9.99c.   Anomaly   5.1c.  Just out of my own interest....    

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 Met office Hadley     9.8c.      Anomaly        5.2c.  Provisional to 30th.

 Metcheck                9.75c.     Anomaly        4.76c.

 Netweather            10.44c.    Anomaly        5.35c.

 

The Average for these 3 Providers of a CET   is .....  9.99c.   Anomaly   5.1c.  Just out of my own interest....    

Looks like it will be 9.8C

 

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Looking forward to seeing all the number crunching by Kevin, Simon (GW) and James (Stormchaser)

Hope I haven't left anyone out :-)

 

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I was struck by the fact that in this year's CET December was warmer than April. This seemed unusual enough, but April was itself over a degree above average.

Looking through the records December has only been warmer than April seven times before - the last time in 1986. But usually this was following a below average April. The only exception was 1934, where April was 8.0 and December 8.1. This year April was 9.0 and it looks like December will be well above that.