Keep an eye on next Tuesday. We could see a CET even higher than today. Currently I am estimating a figure of 14.8C.

 Coupled with strong winds, I'm expecting one of the most peculiar feeling days of weather!

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Keep an eye on next Tuesday. We could see a CET even higher than today. Currently I am estimating a figure of 14.8C.

Phew - that is amazing and I wonder what the monthly CET will be running at by then :-O

 

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I calculate today's CET as 14.23C. This is a positive anomaly of +6.0C compared to the 1981-2010 mean.

This just about makes it into the top 10 warmest November days on record

Top 10 prior to today were:

05 November 1938 15.4C
03 November 1996 15.0C
03 November 1927 14.6C
13 November 1938 14.6C
22 November 1947 14.4C
02 November 1821 14.3C
02 November 1811 14.2C
04 November 1946 14.2C
02 November 1894 14.0C

Interesting that quite a few of these years went on to have cold winters. 

Edit - Actually some mild ones as well so prob no connection

 

 

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Current output suggests we could have 9 consecutive days of double digit CET means from 4 to 12 Nov. The period 13-16 Nov will also be close to double digits so possibly as many as 13 consecutive days.

The CET for the first 2 weeks of November currently looks like being 11.52C. This is higher than the CET for the whole of October.

However, this would not be the warmest first half of November ever. That honour goes to 1938 with an incredible 12.00C. 2015 is likely to be comfortably in second place.

Here is a list of the warmest first half of November's on record (all years >10C).

Worth noting that 1994 was the warmest November on record for the whole month with 10.1C. Also interesting to see 1978 in the list given my comments in the winter thread.

Only 2 years in this list went on to have a cold winter - 1978/9 and to a lesser extent 1817/18.

1938 12.00C
2015 11.52C EST
1994 10.60C
2011 10.50C
1978 10.46C
1818 10.35C
1817 10.01C

Latest charts for November. It does look like turning quite a lot cooler than we have been used to by the 18th-20th. But still above average.

Current output suggests we could have 9 consecutive days of double digit CET means from 4 to 12 Nov. The period 13-16 Nov will also be close to double digits so possibly as many as 13 consecutive days.

The CET for the first 2 weeks of November currently looks like being 11.52C. This is higher than the CET for the whole of October.

However, this would not be the warmest first half of November ever. That honour goes to 1938 with an incredible 12.00C. 2015 is likely to be comfortably in second place.

Here is a list of the warmest first half of November's on record (all years >10C).

Worth noting that 1994 was the warmest November on record for the whole month with 10.1C. Also interesting to see 1978 in the list given my comments in the winter thread.

Only 2 years in this list went on to have a cold winter - 1978/9 and to a lesser extent 1817/18.

1938 12.00C
2015 11.52C EST
1994 10.60C
2011 10.50C
1978 10.46C
1818 10.35C
1817 10.01C

I recall that November 1978 would have been the mildest on record if it was not for the very cold final week - That cold final week ushered in the cold winter on 1978/79 which was the coldest winter since 1963.

The cold final week of November 1978 impressive as it was - was not as cold as the last week of November 2010.

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Met Office Hadley                 11.2c          Anomaly          3.1c.     Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                             10.88c.       Anomaly           3.96c.

Netweather                          11.63c         Anomaly           4.74c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather        11.1c.         Anomaly            2.2c.                

Clevedon Weather                13.1c.         Anomaly            4.2c.

Mount      Sorrel                   11.3c.          Anomaly            4.4c.

My Peasedown Mean             11.8c.         Anomaly             3.4c. 

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Met Office Hadley                   11.6c.         Anomaly          3.5c.      Provisional to 7th. 

Metcheck                               10.86c.       Anomaly          3.93c.

Netweather                            11.89c.       Anomaly          5.0c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather          11.2c          Anomaly          2.3c.  

Clevedon   Weather                 13.0c         Anomaly          3.4c'

Mount      Sorrel                      11.3c.        Anomaly          4.4c.

My Peasedown Mean                12.0c.        Anomaly          3.6c. 

 

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The output continues to show temperatures well above average for the foreseeable future. At the moment it looks like the CET could still be around 11C at the end of the 3rd week of the month.

Unless we get a very cold end to the month it now looks very likely that November will have a CET above 9C. A record November CET above 10.1C cannot be ruled out.

At the moment the CET looks like trending around 3.5C above the 1971-2000 mean by the 21st. It is quite rare to get a CET deviation of more than 3C in a particular month. The last times we had a deviation greater than 3C were:

March 2013  -3.6C
April 2011 +3.7C
December 2010 -5.8C

I have added to the chart the figures for 2004 which is the warmest November on record. Also added 1938 which saw the warmest first half of November on record. We are tracking 1938 fairly closely at the moment although are likely to stay below that year for the most part, at least for now.

The output continues to show temperatures well above average for the foreseeable future. At the moment it looks like the CET could still be around 11C at the end of the 3rd week of the month.

Unless we get a very cold end to the month it now looks very likely that November will have a CET above 9C. A record November CET above 10.1C cannot be ruled out.

At the moment the CET looks like trending around 3.5C above the 1971-2000 mean by the 21st. It is quite rare to get a CET deviation of more than 3C in a particular month. The last times we had a deviation greater than 3C were:

March 2013  -3.6C
April 2011 +3.7C
December 2010 -5.8C

I have added to the chart the figures for 2004 which is the warmest November on record. Also added 1938 which saw the warmest first half of November on record. We are tracking 1938 fairly closely at the moment although are likely to stay below that year for the most part, at least for now.

I think you meant November 1994 which was the warmest on record.

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With the wind, rain, high temperatures and humidity I wonder whether we could end up with the fastest leaf rot on record (not that anyone records these things). Leaves around here are turning into wet mulch then topsoil in a matter of days.

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Met Office Hadley                  11.5c.         Anomaly    3.5c.   Provisional  the 8th.

Metcheck                              10.91c.       Anomaly    3.99c.

Netweather                           11.91c.       Anomaly    5.02c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather         11.2c.         Anomaly    2.3c.

Clevedon Weather                  13.1c.         Anomaly    3.5c.

Mount   Sorrel                        11.4c.         Anomaly    4.5c.

Peasedown  Mean                   12.0c.         Anomaly    3.6c.

            

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Met Office Hadley              11.5c.        Anomaly    3.5c     provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                          11.21c        Anomaly   4.29c.

Netweather                       11.97c.       Anomaly   5.08c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather     11.2c          Anomaly   2.3c.

Clevedon Weather              13.2c.        Anomaly    3.4c.  

Mount  Sorrel                     11.6c.        Anomaly    4.7c.

Peasedown Mean                12.0c.        Anomaly     3.6c.

       

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Met Office Hadley           11.7c.     Anomaly        3.8c.    Provisional to   10th.

Metcheck                       11.45c.   Anomaly         4.53c.

Netweather                    12.31c.   Anomaly         5.42c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather   11.7c.    Anomaly        2.8c.

Clevedon   Weather          13.4c.   Anomaly         3.8c.

Mount Sorrel                    11.9c.   Anomaly         5.0c.

Peasedown Mean              12.1c.   Anomaly         3.7c. 

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Met Office Hadley                   11.9c.           Anomaly       4.0c.    Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                               11.43c.         Anomaly       4.51c.

Netweather                            12.43c.         Anomaly       5.54c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather          11.9c.           Anomaly       3.0c.

Clevedon  Weather                  13.3c.           Anomaly       3.7c.

Mount   Sorrel                         11.9c.           Anomaly       5.0c.

Peasedown     Mean                 12.2c.           Anomaly       3.8c. 

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Today is the ninth day in a row with a double digit CET. Current running mean for the month is at 11.6C by my calculations.

The next two days will be much cooler but still above average. After that a few more double digit days to come by the looks of it.

It is only from next Saturday (21st) that things look like turning much cooler. But even then temperatures look like remaining above average as the 30 year mean drops significantly in the next 10 days. For example the 1981-2010 mean for 12 Nov is 8.2C. The mean for 21 Nov is only 5.8C. There is a very sharp drop in the mean during that period which suggests that typically the cool late Autumn weather tends to arrive during this middle part of November.

Despite the cooler conditions being forecast later in the month, the CET still holds up above 10C reaching 10.18C by the 26th. Currently I would estimate a final CET somewhere around 9.8C. However, it would not take much for the CET to remain in double figures if we keep hold of slightly milder conditions for a little longer. So the November CET record remains under threat. But at this stage the most likely outcome looks to be the second warmest November ever just finishing ahead of 2011.

Met Office Hadley                 11.9c.          Anomaly     4.0c. Provisional to   12th.

Metcheck                             12.4c.          Anomaly     5.51c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather        11.8c.         Anomaly     2.9c.

Clevedon    Weather              13.3c.        Anomaly     3.7c.

Mount  Sorrel                        11.9c.        Anomaly     5.0c.

Peasedown    Mean                12.1c.        Anomaly     3.7c

 

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After a cooler day yesterday the very mild conditions return during the course of today. It looks like staying mild through next week, indeed very mild still at times. By next Friday the CET will still be above 11C. The chart below shows that we will still be slightly behind 1938 which was the warmest November on record for the first 3 weeks.

However, the models have for a while now been suggesting something much colder from next Saturday. This now seems to be firming up as a big change. As the chart below shows temperatures will only be slightly below average but compared to the very warm conditions we have been seeing it will feel really quite cold. The CET will also start plunging and could get down close to 9C by the end of the month if things verify as currently shown.

Met Office Hadley                   11.6c.       Anomaly       3.8c.     Provisional to  13th

Metcheck                               11.6c.       Anomaly       4.13c.

Netweather                            12.1c.       Anomaly       5.21c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather          11.5c.       Anomaly       2.6c.

Clevedon   Weather                13.0c.        Anomaly       3.4c.

Mount     Sorrel                      11.5c.        Anomaly      4.6c.

Peasedown Mean                    11.8c.        Anomaly      3.4c.

  

 

 

 

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Minimum temperatures have been remarkable so far this month.

My own data here in Basingstoke shows a mean minimum for the first 13 days of the month of an incredible 9.75C (using midnight to midnight data). The 09z to 09z figures are usually higher so could be around 10C.

It is even more remarkable when you consider that my mean minimum temperature for September was just 8.01C. Even June only saw a mean minimum of 10.17C.