Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

8 Pages123>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 29 September 2015 21:31:20(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,122

Apologies for the late start to this thread.

September has been a very cool month - the coldest for over 20 years and continues the theme of rather cool weather we have seen since May. This is the first month in 2015 that has been more than 1C below average. Will that trend continue through the rest of Autumn?

Please post your October CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is extended this month to 23:59 on Friday evening (2nd) due to this thread being opened late.

October historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

The last two Octobers have been very mild with a CET of 12.5C. 2011 was similarly mild has have most years been since 2001. But we have had a few cool Octobers as well such as 2008 and 2012 with 9.7C and 2003 with 9.2C. The mean October CET for the last 20 years is a very mild 11.3C.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 10.4C
1981-2010: 10.7C
1995-2014: 11.3C

Here is a chart of the October CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

 

Current model output

GEFS
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Above average start but cooler later. This may not translate accurately to the surface though in the first few days as we remain under high pressure.

ECM (DE Bilt)

Sorry my ECM links have broken and I don't have time to sort them at the moment.

Met Office Contingency planners forecast
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/r/r/A3_plots-temp-OND_v1.pdf

Looks like the probabilities are favouring a warmer than average October which is consistent with the pattern matching analysis below. Strong QBO at the moment also helps to favour a positive NAO although this is likely to be tempered somewhat by the cool Atlantic SSTs. So this reduces the likelihood of a very warm October.

Pattern matching (just for fun)
I have been looking at years where the CET for July, August and September was cool in all three months. I will post something separately in due course about what this might mean for winter but there are very few matches in recent years. However, if you go back to the 1950's, 60's and early 70's you find quite a lot of matches.

Of the 11 reasonable matches I found since 1950 there is not much of a trend as far as the October CET is concerned. But there is tendency towards somewhat milder than average conditions. 8 of the 11 years saw the October CET at or above the 1971-2000 mean with 4 registering 11C or more. But only 1 year was higher than 11.1C (being 1954 with 11.9C). So there are no matches with a CET similar to the 12.5C we saw in 2013 and 2014. There are 3 years with very cool October CETs - 1950 with 9.6C, 1974 with 7.8C and 1993 with 8.5C. So a chance of a cold October but more likely to be close to or slightly above average based on the pattern matching.

October CET tracker
Here are the current prediction charts for the first part of October. After a chilly start it could turn very mild for a time (but more unsettled). If this does happen it will be due to some extremely high minimums rather than maximums increasing. So overall the first half of October could turn out to be rather mild.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 13 November 2015 10:51:27(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

Wanna join the discussion?! Login to your TheWeatherOutlook forum account. New Registrations are disabled.

Offline Norseman  
#2 Posted : 29 September 2015 21:32:15(UTC)
Norseman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,781
Location: Dundee

10.9C for me please.

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#3 Posted : 29 September 2015 21:37:30(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,753
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Just stickied it for you Simon. :-)

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#4 Posted : 29 September 2015 21:39:32(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,753
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Reading the assessment for this one makes things even more difficult. I've bollocksed again with my September one by the look of it.

Need a little time to think this one over.

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline Deep Powder  
#5 Posted : 29 September 2015 21:47:45(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,433
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

My guess is 10.4c please, bang on the old average, but colder would not surprise me!❄️
Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline springsunshine  
#6 Posted : 30 September 2015 03:52:26(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,162
Location: Bournemouth

10.2 Please!

Offline Surrey John  
#7 Posted : 30 September 2015 05:53:59(UTC)
Surrey John

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 19/10/2007(UTC)
Posts: 715
Man
Location: Kingston upon Thames

10.4c for me please

Kingston upon Thames

15m ASL

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#8 Posted : 30 September 2015 06:47:51(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,601
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

9.95c please

 

 

Offline Essan  
#9 Posted : 30 September 2015 06:55:21(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 29,891
Antarctica
Location: Albion

10.8c

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.

Weather & Earth Science News

Cape Wrath and Beyond - My blog for the Cape Wrath Trail 2019 charity walk.

Online lanky  
#10 Posted : 30 September 2015 07:20:26(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,504
Man

I'll go with 10.5C please

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline ARTzeman  
#11 Posted : 30 September 2015 07:26:11(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,716
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

10.3c For me please...

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Tractor Boy  
#12 Posted : 30 September 2015 07:45:06(UTC)
Tractor Boy

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/07/2006(UTC)
Posts: 263

11.6C for me please.

Dave

Cropton, North York Moors

Offline domma  
#13 Posted : 30 September 2015 07:51:16(UTC)
domma

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 10,942
Man
Location: Kirkham, North Yorkshire

10.0c for me, thanks

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gary

Edicius81  
#14 Posted : 30 September 2015 08:51:02(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

10.72c please
Offline Roonie  
#15 Posted : 30 September 2015 10:08:40(UTC)
Roonie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,252
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

11.44 please

:)

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#16 Posted : 30 September 2015 10:26:38(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,753
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I'll go for

10.2C
Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline Saint Snow  
#17 Posted : 30 September 2015 12:11:39(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 43,133
Man
Location: St Helens

I'm now at the stage of sh*t or bust in terms of the annual comp. 

11.8c

 

 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline marting  
#18 Posted : 30 September 2015 12:14:00(UTC)
marting

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 464
Man
Location: Greasby, Wirral

May I have 11.00c please

Thasnk

Martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Offline Grandad  
#19 Posted : 30 September 2015 13:44:51(UTC)
Grandad

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 30/10/2014(UTC)
Posts: 2,143
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Central Solihull


10.9C for me please.

Edited by user 01 October 2015 20:01:15(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Dougie  
#20 Posted : 30 September 2015 13:58:20(UTC)
Dougie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

11.5°c please.

Ha'way the lads
Users browsing this topic
Similar Topics
October CET watch (Weather)
by Hungry Tiger 30/09/2017 13:32:18(UTC)
October CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 29/09/2016 22:25:36(UTC)
October CET watch (TWO Classic Threads Forum.)
by Global Warming 28/09/2014 10:25:19(UTC)
October CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 27/09/2013 09:21:58(UTC)
October CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 27/09/2012 17:17:33(UTC)
October CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 24/09/2010 22:38:00(UTC)
8 Pages123>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP