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Offline Caz  
#121 Posted : 24 March 2015 17:28:45(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,380
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

I could do with it warming up a bit now if it's going to reach my 7c guess. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Saint Snow  
#122 Posted : 25 March 2015 10:17:51(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post


I could do with it warming up a bit now if it's going to reach my 7c guess. 



 


It won't go up today!


I'm still clinging to the hope that it'll stay close to 6c in order to mitigate the damage for me.

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:
"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
Offline ARTzeman  
#123 Posted : 25 March 2015 14:31:24(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,037
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     6.2c.     Anomaly    0.7c.   Provisional to   24th.


Metcheck                5.77c.    Anomaly    -0.39c.


N-W                        6.45c.    Anomaly     0.16c 


Mount Sorrel            6.2c.


My Mean                  6.1c.     Anomaly     -1.5c.


 


 


Later post due to walking in the sunshine...



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Caz  
#124 Posted : 25 March 2015 15:21:00(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,380
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post


It won't go up today!


I'm still clinging to the hope that it'll stay close to 6c in order to mitigate the damage for me.


It doesn't look like it will go up soon enough for me and I have some points to catch up on, due to my late entry penalties last month.  At this late stage of the month, there needs to be a fair rise or fall in daily temps for it to change enough for either of us.   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Gusty  
#125 Posted : 25 March 2015 15:30:54(UTC)
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Location: Folkestone

A monumental cock up on my part. Thats my challenge over for the year. frown

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline springsunshine  
#126 Posted : 25 March 2015 17:09:41(UTC)
springsunshine

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Posts: 1,183
Location: Bournemouth

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post


A monumental cock up on my part. Thats my challenge over for the year. frown



You`re not the only one Gusty

Offline Caz  
#127 Posted : 25 March 2015 19:06:54(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,380
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: springsunshine Go to Quoted Post


You`re not the only one Gusty


  And you're both at each end of the spectrum!   


Don't give up though, there's plenty of time for us all to make monumental cock ups! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Stormchaser  
#128 Posted : 25 March 2015 23:20:56(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Location: West Hants

A terrible performance by the longer range model output for this month - some consolation for those who went for 7*C and above.


Despite this I will continue the experiment... so far there's not much of a signal for April's temperatures either side of average. So expect an unusual month 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline ARTzeman  
#129 Posted : 26 March 2015 12:15:57(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,037
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      6.1c   Anomaly    0.7c. Provisional to 25th.


Metcheck                  5.74c. Anomaly    -0.42c. 


N-W                         6.37c. Anomaly     0.08c.


Mount Sorrel             6.1c.


My Mean                   6.1c.  Anomaly     -1.6c.


My Annual                 5.0c.  Anomaly     -0.7c



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline roger63  
#130 Posted : 26 March 2015 15:28:07(UTC)
roger63

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Location: Winchester,Hampshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post


Met Office Hadley      6.1c   Anomaly    0.7c. Provisional to 25th.


Metcheck                  5.74c. Anomaly    -0.42c. 


N-W                         6.37c. Anomaly     0.08c.


Mount Sorrel             6.1c.


My Mean                   6.1c.  Anomaly     -1.6c.


My Annual                 5.0c.  Anomaly     -0.7c



Is a downward adjustment likely?

Offline Saint Snow  
#131 Posted : 26 March 2015 15:43:28(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Posts: 43,800
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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: roger63 Go to Quoted Post


 


Is a downward adjustment likely?



 


Hopefully!


Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:
"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
Offline Caz  
#132 Posted : 26 March 2015 18:44:06(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,380
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: roger63 Go to Quoted Post


 


Is a downward adjustment likely?


  Hopefully not! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Stormchaser  
#133 Posted : 26 March 2015 21:04:45(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,769
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Location: West Hants

For those already thinking about April... the 12z GFS op run has the CET 2.5*C below the LTA for the first 11 days of the month. Ouch.


ECM's 12z op is not far off setting things up for a similar outcome but it looks like what would usually be a spoiler shortwave near Svalbard would actually be our savior... unless of course you're keen on spring taking as long to arrive as possible 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline ARTzeman  
#134 Posted : 27 March 2015 14:21:28(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,037
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley.    6.1c.      Anomaly     0.6c.   Provisional to 26th.


Metcheck                5.78c.     Anomaly     -0.38c.


N-W                       6.41c.     Anomaly     0.12c.


Mount Sorrel           6.2c.


My Mean                 6.1c.      Anomaly     -1.5c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Caz  
#135 Posted : 27 March 2015 15:42:43(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,380
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post


For those already thinking about April... the 12z GFS op run has the CET 2.5*C below the LTA for the first 11 days of the month. Ouch.


ECM's 12z op is not far off setting things up for a similar outcome but it looks like what would usually be a spoiler shortwave near Svalbard would actually be our savior... unless of course you're keen on spring taking as long to arrive as possible 


I really don't mind if Spring arrives late, like it did last year, providing we get a good summer like we did last year. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline Stormchaser  
#136 Posted : 27 March 2015 17:41:46(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,769
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Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post


I really don't mind if Spring arrives late, like it did last year, providing we get a good summer like we did last year. 



Are you thinking of 2013? Last year had a pretty warm March in these parts, or did that not extend beyond the far south?


 


The latest GFS op run is another chilly one, CET estimate just over 2*C below the LTA for 1st-12th April.


The 06z was much warmer but I have only been computing 00z and 12z runs into my model based projections so at the moment the overall mean of runs plus an estimate of near average conditions for the remainder of the month produces an estimate about half a degree below the LTA for April as a whole.


I do wonder if this scientific approach will ever gain much ground on those using gut instinct or other forecasting methods this year 


For what it's worth, my instinct last month was for it to be near average like the previous two... but to be honest I wasn't confident in any particular outcome, despite the models insisting on a warm month. As always, it comes down to pot luck in the end.


Confidence is low again for this month, with ECM not as keen as GFS on setting up extensive high latitude blocking with frequent imports of cold air for the UK. That 06z GFS op run also rings alarm bells - it wouldn't take much of a shift in the position of the blocking highs for a very different outcome as far as the CET is concerned!


 


I'm going to PM an early CET prediction to GW in a moment, as I'm heading to the Brecon Beacons for a hiking trip tomorrow (great timing I know...!) and who knows, the internet could play hide and seek.


Come on 2015, pick yourself up and do something interesting, preferably with warm sun and a few thunderstorms for good measure! 


 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline Caz  
#137 Posted : 27 March 2015 22:42:14(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,380
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post


Are you thinking of 2013? Last year had a pretty warm March in these parts, or did that not extend beyond the far south?


The latest GFS op run is another chilly one, CET estimate just over 2*C below the LTA for 1st-12th April.


The 06z was much warmer but I have only been computing 00z and 12z runs into my model based projections so at the moment the overall mean of runs plus an estimate of near average conditions for the remainder of the month produces an estimate about half a degree below the LTA for April as a whole.


I do wonder if this scientific approach will ever gain much ground on those using gut instinct or other forecasting methods this year 


For what it's worth, my instinct last month was for it to be near average like the previous two... but to be honest I wasn't confident in any particular outcome, despite the models insisting on a warm month. As always, it comes down to pot luck in the end.


Confidence is low again for this month, with ECM not as keen as GFS on setting up extensive high latitude blocking with frequent imports of cold air for the UK. That 06z GFS op run also rings alarm bells - it wouldn't take much of a shift in the position of the blocking highs for a very different outcome as far as the CET is concerned!


I'm going to PM an early CET prediction to GW in a moment, as I'm heading to the Brecon Beacons for a hiking trip tomorrow (great timing I know...!) and who knows, the internet could play hide and seek.


Come on 2015, pick yourself up and do something interesting, preferably with warm sun and a few thunderstorms for good measure! 



Wasn't it last year that everyone was saying how late the Spring growth was?  Or was it the year before?    I remember the early months of 2014 as nothing special weatherwise, but then age does play with the memory. 


Enjoy the Brecon Beacons and I do hope you get some interesting weather! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
Offline ARTzeman  
#138 Posted : 28 March 2015 11:54:20(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 26,037
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     6.1c.      Anomaly     0.6c.  Provisional to 27th.


Metcheck                 5.85c.    Anomaly     -0.31c.


N-W                        6.42c.    Anomaly      0.13c.


Mount Sorrel            6.2c.


My Mean                  6.2c.      Anomaly     -1.4c. 



Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
Offline Stormchaser  
#139 Posted : 28 March 2015 17:18:48(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,769
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Location: West Hants

Hurrah - scored a little internet time.


A remarkable GFS 12z which produces a CET estimate close to 3*C below normal to the 7th, only for a massive turnaround to take place, a sensationally warm lower-res recovering the CET so much that by 13th April the estimate is about half a degree above the LTA!


That's the kind of interesting variation in weather that I would like to see 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2018's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#140 Posted : 28 March 2015 20:24:35(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,786
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post


Hurrah - scored a little internet time.


A remarkable GFS 12z which produces a CET estimate close to 3*C below normal to the 7th, only for a massive turnaround to take place, a sensationally warm lower-res recovering the CET so much that by 13th April the estimate is about half a degree above the LTA!


That's the kind of interesting variation in weather that I would like to see 



That's excellent - someone flagged up an F1 chart showing 20C and 21C on April 11th.


That would be great.


 

Gavin S.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com
South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.
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