Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

9 Pages«<45678>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Stormchaser  
#101 Posted : 13 March 2015 23:31:13(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,859
Man
Location: West Hants

Yesterday was warmer than the GFS output of several days ago suggested, and today pulled off the same feat across the eastern half of the UK... can't say I mind innocent

The weekend is obviously going to have a significant impact on the CET, given that tomorrow's maximum may struggle to get much above 5*C in most places, while Sunday may only manage 7 or 8*C tops.

For a time, next week was looking to continue the below average CET returns, which had be wondering just how far wide of the mark the model-led CET projection could end up, but the past day or so has seen the output lean towards some warmer days in the mix - nothing exceptional but enough to at least counter the colder days as and when they come along.

Not yet looking like enough to lift the CET to nearly 8*C by month's end, but I could live with something at or just above 7*C 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline TimS  
#102 Posted : 14 March 2015 08:17:58(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,788
Location: Brockley

One thing that's been notable here so far is the amount of sunshine, continuing the theme from the winter just gone. I do t think there's a daily running E&W sunshine time series anywhere on the Internet unfortunately (though Philip Eden must get his from somewhere) but I wouldn't mind betting we're averaging 7 or 8 hours per day at least down here in the South East.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Stormchaser  
#103 Posted : 14 March 2015 09:09:09(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,859
Man
Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

For a time, next week was looking to continue the below average CET returns, which had be wondering just how far wide of the mark the model-led CET projection could end up, but the past day or so has seen the output lean towards some warmer days in the mix - nothing exceptional but enough to at least counter the colder days as and when they come along.

...cue today's ECM 00z operational! 

The most extreme option by far, but of some concern as it would allow for at least one day with a very low CET return... possibly not far above zero!

Trust high latitude blocking to start appearing in troublesome places at a time when most of us are keen for some spring warmth 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#104 Posted : 14 March 2015 11:21:41(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     6.6c.   Anomaly   1.5c.   Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                6.23c.  Anomaly   0.07c.

N-W                       6.93c.  Anomaly   0.64c.

My Mean                 6.5c.   Anomaly   -1.2c.     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#105 Posted : 14 March 2015 14:33:09(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,285

The last three months have all returned a CET within 0.2C of the 1971-2000 mean. This month looks like it could continue that trend.

A cooler interlude coming up in the next 10 days with temperatures either close to average or somewhat below average.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Caz  
#106 Posted : 14 March 2015 16:48:24(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,483
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

Not yet looking like enough to lift the CET to nearly 8*C by month's end, but I could live with something at or just above 7*C 

Oh, I could live with it ending at 7c too! 

Of course the output will change and change again before the end of the month.  I don't want it to peak too soon as we're more likely to have warmer weather at the end of the month.  Oh, hang on!  This is the British weather we're talking about, so maybe we won't! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Stormchaser  
#107 Posted : 14 March 2015 20:13:58(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,859
Man
Location: West Hants

I was thinking GW's projection looked more than 1*C too low for much of next week after seeing the GFS 12z op run... but then came the ECM 12z op run 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#108 Posted : 15 March 2015 11:09:19(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        6.4c.    Anomaly     1.3c.   Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                    6.12c.  Anomaly    -0.04c.

N-W                           6.79c.  Anomaly     0.5c        

Mount Sorrel              6.6c.

My  Mean                  6.3c.   Anomaly    -1.3c.     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline four  
#109 Posted : 15 March 2015 11:10:09(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,062
Location: N.Y.Moors

Nearly halfway through and it's 5C here (-0.3C)

Offline ARTzeman  
#110 Posted : 16 March 2015 11:55:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     6.3c.     Anomaly      1.2c.     provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                 6.5c.     Anomaly     -0.11c,

N-W                        6.73c.   Anomaly      0.44c.

Mount Sorrel            6.5c.

My Mean                  6.2c.    Anomaly       1.4c.             

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#111 Posted : 17 March 2015 12:22:59(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     6.3c.      Anomaly     1.1c.   Provisional   to 16th.

Metcheck                 6.00c.    Anomaly    -0.16c.  

N-W                        6.66c.    Anomaly     0.37c.

Mount Sorrel            6.4c.

My Mean                   6.1.      Anomaly     -1.5c.       

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#112 Posted : 18 March 2015 11:18:51(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley    6.3c.      Anomaly      1.1c.    provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                5.90c     Anomaly     -0.26c.

N-W                       6.62c.    Anomaly      0.33c.

Mount  Sorrel          6.2c.      Anomaly      0.1c.

My     Mean            6.2c.      Anomaly      -1.4c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#113 Posted : 18 March 2015 20:04:01(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,483
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Steady as she goes and that's fine for me as long as we get a few warmer days at the end of the month but not too late that it won't make much difference to the average.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#114 Posted : 19 March 2015 11:05:15(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         6.2c.       Anomaly       1.0c.  Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                     5.88c.     Anomaly      -0.28c.

N-W                            6.58c.     Anomaly       0.29c.

Mount Sorrel                6.2c.

My Mean                      6.1c.     Anomaly   -1.5c.               

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#115 Posted : 20 March 2015 11:50:14(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley    6.2c.      Anomaly      0.9c.    Provisional  to  19th. 

Metcheck                5.85c.   Anomaly      -0.31c.    

N-W                       6.53c.   Anomaly       0.24c

Mount Sorrel           6.2c    

My Mean                 6.1c.     Anomaly      -1.5c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#116 Posted : 21 March 2015 11:03:52(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met office Hadley     6.2c.    Anomaly      0.9c.    Provisional to  20th.

Metcheck                5.92c   Anomaly     -0.24c.    

N-W                       6.57c   Anomaly      0.28c

My Mean                6.1c.    Anomaly     -1.5c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline four  
#117 Posted : 22 March 2015 07:26:51(UTC)
four

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,062
Location: N.Y.Moors

Still 5C (-0.3C) here.
First daffodils are just starting to open in warmer spots.

Offline ARTzeman  
#118 Posted : 22 March 2015 12:12:21(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met office Hadley     6.3c.    Anomaly     0.9c.   Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                5.89c.   Anomaly    -0.27c.

 N-W                      6.57c.   Anomaly     0.28c. 

Mount Sorrel           6.3c.    Anomaly     -2.0c.

My Mean                 6.2c.    Anomaly     -1.4c.   (compared to March 2014  of 7.6c. First full year of records.)  

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#119 Posted : 23 March 2015 10:47:03(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     6.2c.     Anomaly      0.9c.   Provisional to  22nd.

Metcheck                 5.82c    Anomaly     -0.34c.

N-W                        6.53c.   Anomaly      0.24c.

Mount Sorrel            6.4c.     Anomaly     -2.0c.

My Mean                  6.1c.    Anomaly      -1.5c.

  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#120 Posted : 24 March 2015 14:01:47(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,205
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley  6.2c.   Anomaly    0.8c.

Metcheck              5.84c.  Anomaly   -0.32c.

N-W                     6.52c.  Anomaly    0.23c.

Mount Sorrel         6.3c.

My Mean               6.1c.   Anomaly    -1.5c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Users browsing this topic
Similar Topics
March CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 26/02/2017 22:41:31(UTC)
March CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 28/02/2016 11:42:03(UTC)
March CET watch (TWO Classic Threads Forum.)
by Global Warming 25/02/2014 22:11:38(UTC)
March CET watch (TWO Classic Threads Forum.)
by Global Warming 24/02/2013 22:14:19(UTC)
March CET watch (TWO Classic Threads Forum.)
by Global Warming 25/02/2012 17:00:20(UTC)
March CET watch (Weather)
by Global Warming 22/02/2011 21:27:18(UTC)
9 Pages«<45678>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP