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Offline Caz  
#81 Posted : 05 March 2015 20:21:54(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

Thanks Caz

No prob.  Tell you what, I'll paste the table here so we can still see it when the Feb thread gets un-stickied.  GW takes the time to do these ever increasing tables and it's a shame to let them fall from view. 

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Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#82 Posted : 06 March 2015 11:10:37(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met office  Hadley    5.02c.     Anomaly     0.7c    Provisional   To    5th March  ......

Metcheck                 5.07c.    Anomaly     -1.09c.

N-W                        5.45c.    Anomaly     -0.86c.

My Mean                  5.0c.     Anomaly      -2.6c.

          

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#83 Posted : 07 March 2015 14:10:29(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       5.7c.    Anomaly    1.1c.     Provisional  to    6th.

Metcheck                   5.73c.  Anomaly   -0.43c. 

N-W                            5.96c.   Anomaly   -0.35c.

My   Mean                 5.4c.     Anomaly-2.2c.

    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#84 Posted : 07 March 2015 18:00:51(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,486
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley       5.7c.    Anomaly    1.1c.     Provisional  to    6th.

Metcheck                   5.73c.  Anomaly   -0.43c. 

N-W                            5.96c.   Anomaly   -0.35c.

My   Mean                 5.4c.     Anomaly-2.2c.

      That's shot up a bit.  A little bit too much for my liking. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Global Warming  
#85 Posted : 07 March 2015 20:21:33(UTC)
Global Warming

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The CET is shooting up at the moment due to the very warm weather. It will level off in the next few days and may then drift gradually down as we move through the middle part of the month.

At present I am expecting the CET to still be slightly above average by 21 March.

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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#86 Posted : 07 March 2015 21:07:11(UTC)
Global Warming

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Here is the list of March predictions

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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#87 Posted : 08 March 2015 08:30:32(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Thank you GW for the chart.. Lots of 6c + in there.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#88 Posted : 08 March 2015 11:05:11(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

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Location: South Cambridgeshire

I'm in trouble then. I must have been half asleep when I made my prediction.

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline ARTzeman  
#89 Posted : 08 March 2015 11:42:12(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      6.4c.      Anomaly     1.7c.     Provisional to  7th.

Metcheck                  6.11c.     Anomaly      -0.05c.

N-W                          6.56c       Anomaly      0.27c.

My  Mean                  6.0c.      Anomaly       -1.6c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Stormchaser  
#90 Posted : 08 March 2015 18:19:34(UTC)
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Location: West Hants

The boundary between the cooler air and milder air for much of next week has shifted southeast quite a bit on the GFS runs over the past two days... enough to change the likely CET trend from upward to downward.

That's before the risk of it turning chillier still from the east by next weekend. Until recently, GFS and CFS were being persistent in placing the high pressure far enough SE to bring more of a mild westerly regime to our shores, with estimates of the CET using raw model data were coming in at somewhere over 7*C for 1st-15th March.

This now looks like being between a half and a whole degree too high. This error is mitigated to some extent by the fact that GFS projected temperatures that proved to be a degree or so too low for the first few days of the month.

 

I must admit, it was more fun playing this game using gut instinct than this scientific approach... but I remain interested in seeing just how well (or poorly) model-based CET projections will fare this year.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

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2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Caz  
#91 Posted : 08 March 2015 18:55:59(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

I haven't a clue with weather science and my guesses are always gut instinct, which this month was for a cool start, average middle and warmer ending.  It's still too early to forecast anything near the end of the month but it would be interesting to see how close the models do get it. 

I do wonder how many people's guesses are influenced by the weather at the time of their entries.  I think mine are! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#92 Posted : 09 March 2015 11:09:21(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     6.7c.     Anomaly     1.9c.     Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                 5.93c.   Anomaly    -0.23c.

N-W                        6.71c.   Anomaly    0.42c.

My Mean                  6.2c.     Anomaly   -1.47c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Online Saint Snow  
#93 Posted : 09 March 2015 15:48:58(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley     6.7c.     Anomaly     1.9c.     Provisional to 8th.

 

From 5.0 to 6.7 in 3 days. What was I thinking...?

 

Hopefully the upcoming cooler period will be quite lengthy to keep the CET suppressed - ideally below 6c (best I can hope for, really)

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Caz  
#94 Posted : 09 March 2015 19:58:01(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,486
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

So much for my 'gut feeling' cool start.  I just hope the upcoming cooler spell and my 'gut feeling' warm end, balance themselves out a bit.   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#95 Posted : 10 March 2015 12:10:19(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         6.5c         Anomaly        1.6c.   Provisional to    9th.

Metcheck                     6.08c.      Anomaly       -0.08c.

N-W                            6.66c.       Anomaly        0.37c.

Mount  Sorrel               6.3c.

My  Mean                     6.2c.         Anomaly       -1.4c.

         

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#96 Posted : 10 March 2015 21:04:23(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,486
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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Even though it's still lower than my guess, it's still a little to high for comfort and I'm not convinced we'll get a cold spell that will make much difference.  I think it will fall again tomorrow but will then hold fairly steady for a few days before making a gentle rise. 

It isn't easy typing with your fingers crossed! 

 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#97 Posted : 11 March 2015 11:57:39(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 27,213
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      6.4c.      Anomaly      1.5c.      Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                  5.97c.     Anomaly    -0.19c.

N-W                         6.63c.     Anomaly      0.34c.

Mount Sorrel             5.9c.      Anomaly       0.4c.

My   Mean                 6.2c.      Anomaly      -1.4c.

My Annual                 5.0c.      Anomaly      -0.7c.    

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#98 Posted : 12 March 2015 11:31:57(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 27,213
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley    6.4c.   Anomaly    1.4c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                6.21c. Anomaly   -0.05c.   

N-W                       6.7c.  Anomaly     0.42c.

Mount Sorrel           6.6c.  Anomaly     0.3c.

My Mean                 6.3c.  Anomaly   -1.3c.  

My Annual               5.1c.  Anomaly   -0.6c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#99 Posted : 13 March 2015 11:46:39(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 27,213
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         6.6c.    Anomaly    1.5c.

Metcheck                     6.33c.  Anomaly    0.17c.

N-W                            6.95c   Anomaly    0.66c.

Mount Sorrel                6.7c.    Anomaly    0.4c.

My Mean                      6.6c.    Anomaly   -1.0c.

My Annual                    5.1c.   Anomaly   -0.6c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#100 Posted : 13 March 2015 20:32:40(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,486
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Oh my goodness!  It's on its way up again already.  If it carries on like this we'll all have pitched too low.   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

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