Are you teasing again Gusty 

me Jonesy ? ...never !

 

Cheers Saint

I can't believe so many people here have overlooked the 'Big freeze of December 2014' that is looming and will start presenting itself in the models in a week or so !

I'm glad Stormchaser is seeing it.

 

(Clears throat).  Yes Steve.  We came up with the same prediction independently in November but I see you've gone for a "winning score" in December.  We are 3c apart as I'm at the milder end.

GFS is now showing colder nights during the next 5 days than was the case back on 30th November, with the mean temperature for 4th-9th now predicted to be about 1*C lower (near to 3.5*C on the 12z op run).

After that, the outlook is fairly similar temperature-wise to the runs of 30th November (reflects the lack of interesting changes in lower-res!), with a milder theme due to the flat westerlies still being shown until late in the run, which leaves the CET estimate just below 5*C to 19th December.

Other models point towards the jet tracking further south beyond the 9th which would keep temperatures lower, which threatens to derail the record CET attempt right at the final hurdle 

I must add, I'm amazed the Hadley CET estimate is all the way up at 6.4*C. I know it's early in the month, but my mean is at 4.9*C and as far as I have seen, conditions across England have been similar to here in the areas under cloud, while colder nights have offset warmer days where the skies have been clear.

Not that it matters too much - the impact on the CET estimate to the 19th is not much over 0.1*C  

Met Office Hadley       5.5c.       Anomaly     0.4c.  Provisional  to  3rd.

Metcheck                   5.06c.     Anomaly     0.07c.

N-W                          5.82c.     Anomaly     0.73c.

Mount  Sorrel             5.25c.     Anomaly     0.15c.

My    Mean                 5.25.       Anomaly    - 1.6c. 

Here 2.6c

Mean min -0.5c

Mean max 5.8c

Met Office Hadley       4.7c.    Anomaly    -0.4c.     Provisional   to   4th.

Metcheck                   4.76c.  Anomaly    -0.23c.

N-W                          5.45c.  Anomaly     0.36c.

Mount  Sorrel             4.93c.  Anomaly    -0.17c.

My  Mean                   4.4c.   Anomaly     -2.1c.       

Met Office Hadley       4.7c.    Anomaly     -0.6c.     provisional  to 5th.

Metcheck                   4.32c.  Anomaly     -0.68c.

N-W                          5.13c.  Anomaly      0.68c.

Mount  Sorrel            4.62c.   Anomaly     -0.48c.

My  Mean                  4.3c.    Anomaly      -2.2c.

Met Office Hadley       4.7c.    Anomaly     -0.6c.     provisional  to 5th.

Metcheck                   4.32c.  Anomaly     -0.68c.

N-W                          5.13c.  Anomaly      0.68c.

Mount  Sorrel            4.62c.   Anomaly     -0.48c.

My  Mean                  4.3c.    Anomaly      -2.2c.

   

Surprised it's stayed at 4.7c; expected a fall toward 4c.

The CET IMBY must be below 3c; we've had an air frost 4 of the 5 nights in December so far, with a max of 6.4c this month. Nice and SEasonal, but I'm stuffed with a really heavy cold.

Met Office Hadley       4.7c.    Anomaly     -0.6c.     provisional  to 5th.

Metcheck                   4.32c.  Anomaly     -0.68c.

N-W                          5.13c.  Anomaly      0.68c.

Mount  Sorrel            4.62c.   Anomaly     -0.48c.

My  Mean                  4.3c.    Anomaly      -2.2c.

   

I suspect an error has occured here.

For the 4th the figure was 4.7C with an anomaly of 0.4C

So the 5th at 4.7C with an anonaly of 0.6c looks wrong

(Unless the warmists have got hold of the historical dataset and adjusted it upwards again!!!) .  LOL  LOL LOL

The Hadley figures are correct

The Hadley figures are correct

Thanks GW. It just looks very odd.

 

Thanks GW. It just looks very odd.

It looks as though the mean temps are OK but the recording of the anomalies between the 5th and 6th in the above posts has gone a bit wrong

Is the Hadley anomaly based on LTAs for the given point in the month as opposed to the whole month? That would explain the change in anomaly despite no change in the CET.

Is the Hadley anomaly based on LTAs for the given point in the month as opposed to the whole month? That would explain the change in anomaly despite no change in the CET.

Yes exactly. The anomaly quoted is not a comparison against the long run mean for the whole month but against the mean for the number of days elapsed so far in the month. So this figure will change every day. 

Also bear in mind the figures use the 1961-1990 mean not more recent 30 year averages.

I checked the calculations and the anomaly quoted is correct.

 

Yes exactly. The anomaly quoted is not a comparison against the long run mean for the whole month but against the mean for the number of days elapsed so far in the month. So this figure will change every day. 

Also bear in mind the figures use the 1961-1990 mean not more recent 30 year averages.

I checked the calculations and the anomaly quoted is correct.

I realised that but I still assumed that something had gone wrong with the anomaly data (at least as posted here) as it said data for the 4th and 5th December was

4th MTD mean 4.7 anomaly -0.4

5th MTD mean 4.7 anomaly -0,6

which would mean the average 1961-1990 MTD temps were 5.1 up to 4th and 5.3 up to 5th

This is a big change for 1 day over a long term average and going in the "wrong" direction for this time of year

However, if GW has checked it out that's good enough for me

 

I realised that but I still assumed that something had gone wrong with the anomaly data (at least as posted here) as it said data for the 4th and 5th December was

4th MTD mean 4.7 anomaly -0.4

5th MTD mean 4.7 anomaly -0,6

which would mean the average 1961-1990 MTD temps were 5.1 up to 4th and 5.3 up to 5th

This is a big change for 1 day over a long term average and going in the "wrong" direction for this time of year

However, if GW has checked it out that's good enough for me

The 30 year mean for each of the first 5 days of December using the 1961-1990 figures is as follows and yes they do go in the "wrong" direction for the time of year.

1  4.8
2  5.2
3  5.1
4  5.4
5  5.7

The mean for the first 4 days to 2 decimals is 5.12C and for the first 5 days is 5.24C.

The 2014 mean for the first 4 days is 4.73C and for the first 5 days is 4.66C.

That makes the anomaly for the first 4 days 0.39C and for the first 5 days 0.58C.

 

The 30 year mean for each of the first 5 days of December using the 1961-1990 figures is as follows and yes they do go in the "wrong" direction for the time of year.

1  4.8
2  5.2
3  5.1
4  5.4
5  5.7

The mean for the first 4 days to 2 decimals is 5.12C and for the first 5 days is 5.24C.

The 2014 mean for the first 4 days is 4.73C and for the first 5 days is 4.66C.

That makes the anomaly for the first 4 days 0.39C and for the first 5 days 0.58C.

Global Warming.

Thanks for the info again. From your first reply I assumed it was based upon the averaged month to date figure otherwise it just doesn't seem to make sense.

Have you got the CET daily averages datasets available as a link? .Or do you keep the  61-90 averages as a daily figure?

I have got all the differently sorted monthly means back to the start of the CET dataset, but have not seen the daily ones listed anywhere. Would it be possible for you to provide a link?

Thanks again for your reply.

 

Global Warming.

Thanks for the info again. From your first reply I assumed it was based upon the averaged month to date figure otherwise it just doesn't seem to make sense.

Have you got the CET daily averages datasets available as a link? .Or do you keep the  61-90 averages as a daily figure?

I have got all the differently sorted monthly means back to the start of the CET dataset, but have not seen the daily ones listed anywhere. Would it be possible for you to provide a link?

Thanks again for your reply.

 

The daily means, maxs and mins are at

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

It is fairly easy to download the datasets and reload them into Excel or Access to analyze (remember to clear any -999 entries as this is used to identify short months < 31 days or missing months in the current year-to-date )

 

Yes exactly. The anomaly quoted is not a comparison against the long run mean for the whole month but against the mean for the number of days elapsed so far in the month. So this figure will change every day. 

Also bear in mind the figures use the 1961-1990 mean not more recent 30 year averages.

I checked the calculations and the anomaly quoted is correct.

Ah....... *light pings in head*... so basically in the 1961-90 avgs, the first of the month is an average of just 30 data points, so an outlier on those dates has more effect, and the 30th is an average of 900 data points and less prone to movement...?