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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 27 November 2014 22:31:02(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

Please send your predictions to me via Private Message this month and do not post directly into the thread. This is to avoid tactical predictions as we approach the end of this year's competition.

So far this year we have had 10 months significantly above average and one significantly below. Not a single month close to average. Will the warm trend continue through December or can we expect a first taste of winter at some point? Very difficult to say at the moment. One thing is for sure. The 850 temperatures will dip back to close to average from 2 December. But these are not necessarily a good predictor of surface temperatures at this time of year.

The record CET year is still very much on track. Indeed an 11C year is still a possibility. As at the end of November the CET for the year as a whole will comfortably be the warmest on record - ahead of 1995 which currently holds the record.

If the November CET finishes at 8.3C we need a December CET of 4.5C to beat the current CET record and 6.0C to finish at 11C.

The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Sunday evening (30th). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 December (Tuesday evening).

December historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years. December is the only month where the 1981-2010 mean is lower than the 1971-2000 mean and quite a bit lower too.

A real mixed bag of Decembers in recent years. Several very cold years - in particular 2008 (3.5C), 2009 (3.1C) and 2010 (-0.7C). Also some very warm years 2006 (6.5C), 2011 (6.0C) and 2013 (6.4C). In between there have been a few average years as well.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 5.1C
1981-2010: 4.6C
1994-2013: 4.5C

Here is a chart of the December CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average.

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

850 temps are close to average but the surface temperatures look to be generally slightly above average based on these charts

ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx

Looking fairly close to average for De Bilt.

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
The narrative suggests that temperatures could be somewhat chilly at times in the first 10 days but then recovering close to average.

Pattern matching (just for fun)
Looking back at last month I concluded with this comment which was pretty close to what actually happened.

"on balance I would be inclined to go for another significantly above average month in November."  

So lets look ahead to December.

2014 will have the third warmest Autumn on record with a CET close to 12C exactly. The only warmer years were 2011 (12.43C) and 2006 (12.63C). In each of those two years December was also well above average with a CET of at least 6C.

However on the flip side we have had a couple of years in recent times with a very warm Autumn (including November) followed by a cold December. 1978 saw an Autumn CET of 11.53C (with November CET of 8.5C) followed by a December CET of 3.9C. 2009 saw an Autumn CET of 11.5C (with November CET of 8.7C) followed by a December CET of 3.1C.

If we look at the CET figures for the first 11 days of December in each of the above 4 years we see that December 2006 started off very warm whereas 2011 was close to average at 5.4C (exactly what the models are currently predicting for this year - see below). 2009 was above average in the first 11 days at 6.3C. 1978 was slightly below average at 5.1C although it started very cold and turned milder for a time after the first week.

Of the four years I would say that 2011 is the closest match based on the current output for early December. But what happens in the second half of the month is anyone's guess at this point. On balance I would favour an above average month overall but not by a great deal. Somewhere between 5.5C and 6C maybe. But if we do get a cold spell towards the end of the month we could end up much colder than this.

Latest forecast December CET tracker

Overall the first 11 days of December currently looking like being very close to average.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 10 January 2015 19:44:29(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 28 November 2014 08:26:02(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Mine is in... Many thanks for doing this.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Edicius81  
#3 Posted : 28 November 2014 11:13:45(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

Has anyone got a clue this month? I'm really struggling so am planning to leave it pretty late.
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#4 Posted : 28 November 2014 14:05:22(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,065
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Just sent mine in. This will be a tough one as December could go almost anywhere from very mild to quite cold I reckon.

 

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline TimS  
#5 Posted : 28 November 2014 14:18:28(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,581
Location: Brockley

It's getting a bit like a sporting contest this year. 4.5C to beat the annual CET, 6.0C to exceed 11C. It's like the final grand prix this year, or the last event of a decathlon. There's a clear front-runner, they only need to avoid cocking up the final event to secure the title, but there is always the risk they could do just that and hand it to their rival. Same kind of tension. Which is why I don't get those who are wishing for cold weather just now. Wait! You can have as much snow and ice in January and February as you like, but please let's see 2014 smash the record. Ideally let's have it exceed 6C and give us an 11C year.

If only August had been even average, it would be all over by now.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Deep Powder  
#6 Posted : 29 November 2014 01:22:01(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,435
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

Cheers for all your hard work on this GW, will PM my guess in a moment, cheers again!

Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline Stormchaser  
#7 Posted : 29 November 2014 10:42:27(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,846
Man
Location: West Hants

Just put in the raw values from the first 11 days of the GFSP 00z op run and got a CET anomaly south of -1.5*C.

Such is the winter-time impact of large ridges of high pressure across the UK positioned far enough north to keep us clear of a mild SW flow.

 

The ECM 00z op run looks a little colder still. This is the reason why just looking at CET records can give false impressions when trying to establish what produces a cold winter that actually delivers a good amount of snow. I remember December 2005 featured a lot of high pressure, often with fog that was on a few occasions freezing. The only white precipitation was some sporadic powder snow IIRC.

 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline springsunshine  
#8 Posted : 29 November 2014 20:33:00(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,408
Location: Bournemouth

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post

It's getting a bit like a sporting contest this year. 4.5C to beat the annual CET, 6.0C to exceed 11C. It's like the final grand prix this year, or the last event of a decathlon. There's a clear front-runner, they only need to avoid cocking up the final event to secure the title, but there is always the risk they could do just that and hand it to their rival. Same kind of tension. Which is why I don't get those who are wishing for cold weather just now. Wait! You can have as much snow and ice in January and February as you like, but please let's see 2014 smash the record. Ideally let's have it exceed 6C and give us an 11C year.

If only August had been even average, it would be all over by now.

My thoughts as well! Lets hope we smash the cet record and if we get an 11c+ cet 2014 imo will be the most memorable year weather wise

in my lifetime. Ive a feeling though the weather is going to do a `Liverpool` and slip up at the very end

Offline Global Warming  
#9 Posted : 29 November 2014 21:17:29(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

We are definitely in with a chance of the first below average month since August and only the second of the year. After an above average first couple of days of December the next 11 look below average at the moment. Not by much it has to be said but consistently by a degree of so.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Online KevBrads1  
#10 Posted : 29 November 2014 22:29:53(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,904
Location: Irlam

One peculiar quirk, no December with a CET of 5.9C yet two with 8.1C

 

Edited by user 29 November 2014 22:34:03(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Surrey John  
#11 Posted : 30 November 2014 12:52:16(UTC)
Surrey John

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 19/10/2007(UTC)
Posts: 775
Man
Location: Kingston upon Thames

I found it hard to make my guess this month, haven't got a clue if second half of December will be mild or cold.

Quite looking forward to seeing the tables of predictions in a few days to see how wide the spread is

John

Kingston upon Thames

15m ASL

Offline ARTzeman  
#12 Posted : 02 December 2014 08:00:18(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
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Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Just looked around this morning . Some figures until later today.

Taken at  07:53

Metcheck        6.63c.  Anomaly 1.29c.

N-W               7.29c.  Anomaly 2.2c.

Mount Sorrel   7.03c.  Anomaly 1.93c.

My Mean         6.5c.    Anomaly 0.0c.   My figure is last Decembers CET for my  station..     

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#13 Posted : 02 December 2014 12:35:01(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

The Normal Run Of Figures......

Met Office Hadley       6.2c.      Anomaly      1.3c.   Provisional to  1st.

Metcheck                   6.60c.    Anomaly      1.61c.

N-W                          7.29c.    Anomaly       2.2c.

Mount  Sorrel             6.98c.    Anomaly       1.88c.

My   Mean                  6.5c.      Anomaly       0.0c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#14 Posted : 02 December 2014 22:45:35(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

Thanks for all your kind words and comments. This year seems to have flown by.

So here is the final table of predictions for 2014. A slight majority going for the warm theme of 2014 to continue through to the end of the year.

Good luck to everyone with their December predictions. A new competition will be up and running for 2015 in just 4 weeks time.

 

 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 02 December 2014 22:47:29(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Dougie  
#15 Posted : 02 December 2014 23:42:29(UTC)
Dougie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

If its hovering around 4.10°c towards the end of the month, there will be two very nervous contestants

Ha'way the lads
Offline Gusty  
#16 Posted : 03 December 2014 06:25:39(UTC)
Gusty

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Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,534
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: Dougie Go to Quoted Post

If its hovering around 4.10°c towards the end of the month, there will be two very nervous contestants

Sub 4c Steve wins...greater than 4c Darren wins. 

Its been a great year. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

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Offline Saint Snow  
#17 Posted : 03 December 2014 10:03:34(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Posts: 45,948
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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

 

Sub 4c Steve wins...greater than 4c Darren wins. 

Its been a great year. 

 

No offence to Darren, but I hope you are closer!

In fact, I'd be happy if Stormchaser or Surrey John won the month (and I guess you would, too) 

"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline ARTzeman  
#18 Posted : 03 December 2014 11:34:45(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     6.4c.       Anomaly      1.4c.   Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                 5.50c.     Anomaly      0.51c.

N-W                        6.76c.     Anomaly      1.67c.

Mount  Sorrel           5.92c.     Anomaly      0.82c.

My   Mean                5.9c.       Anomaly      0.6c.

    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Gusty  
#19 Posted : 03 December 2014 12:07:14(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,534
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

No offence to Darren, but I hope you are closer!

In fact, I'd be happy if Stormchaser or Surrey John won the month (and I guess you would, too) 

Cheers Saint tongue-out

I can't believe so many people here have overlooked the 'Big freeze of December 2014' that is looming and will start presenting itself in the models in a week or so !

I'm glad Stormchaser is seeing it. cool

 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Jonesy  
#20 Posted : 03 December 2014 12:10:39(UTC)
Jonesy

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/07/2008(UTC)
Posts: 4,027
Man
Location: Medway

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

 

Cheers Saint tongue-out

I can't believe so many people here have overlooked the 'Big freeze of December 2014' that is looming and will start presenting itself in the models in a week or so !

I'm glad Stormchaser is seeing it. cool

 

Are you teasing again Gusty 

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .

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