Brilliant stuff GW.

Very interesting..thanks GW. 

As for the CET competition.. I shall be hoping for a warm November before a colder 2009 style of winter starts in December. 

Met Office Hadley      9.3c       Anomaly      1.8c.    provisional  to  15th.

Metcheck                  8.96c.    Anomaly      2.04c.

N-W                         9.61c.    Anomaly      2.71c.

Mount  Sorrel            8.91c     Anomaly      2.01c.

My  Mean                  9.3c.      Anomaly      2.9c. 

EPIC couple of posts GW! Many thanks. Was a pleasure to read!

I second the above - really interesting analogue years, with 2009 the one that has come up again and again in recent times, and the primary reason why the development of a more notable polar vortex being shown in the 00z runs for late November doesn't concern me much from the perspective of seeing some decent cold and/or snowy spells in winter 

EPIC couple of posts GW! Many thanks. Was a pleasure to read!

Top posts there by GW and excellent reading. I'll second that. :-)

That's a great piece of analysis GW and was a pleasure to read. Whilst I don't think the 'weather' has a memory as such, I do still firmly believe that trends in seasons can be matched to others in the past.

Thanks again

Met Office Hadley     9.2c.       Anomaly     1.8c.    Provisional    to 16th.

Metcheck                 8.94c.     Anomaly      2.02c.

N-W                        9. 59c.    Anomaly      2.7c.

Mount  Sorrel           8.89c.     Anomaly      1.99c.

My  Mean                 9.2c.       Anomaly      2.8c.      

If current NWP is to be believed, there's going to be some lower mins for much of the remainder of the month. Some nice maxes at times, too - but I think the overall effect will be to lower the CET, perhaps by as much as 1c by the end of Nov.

If current NWP is to be believed, there's going to be some lower mins for much of the remainder of the month. Some nice maxes at times, too - but I think the overall effect will be to lower the CET, perhaps by as much as 1c by the end of Nov.

 

The CET is going to edge down slowly based on the current output. My latest calculations suggest a final figure of 8.44C. Something about 8.5C feels about right at the moment.

Thanks everyone for your comments. The set up we have this year is really fascinating I think given that there are some really interesting similarities to years past. I also wanted to understand for myself a bit more about the various elements that can potentially have a bearing on our winter weather which I have seen discussed on this site but never really fully understand. Having spent a fair bit of time doing some research over the past couple of weeks and looking into the analogues I now feel in a much better position to understand and interpret these various elements as we move into the winter period.

Met Office Hadley     9.2c.    Anomaly      1.9c.    Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                 8.90c.  Anomaly      1.98c.

N-W                        9.55c.  Anomaly      2.66c.

Mount Sorrel            8.80c.  Anomaly      1.90c.

My Mean                  9.2c.   Anomaly       2.8c,

Met Office Hadley    9.2c.    Anomaly    1.9c.    Provisional    to 18th

Metcheck                8.88c   Anomaly     1.96c.

N-W                       9.50c.  Anomaly     2.62c.

Mount  Sorrel         8.76c.   Anomaly     1.86c.

My  Mean               9.1c.    Anomaly      2.7c.

 

The CET is going to edge down slowly based on the current output. My latest calculations suggest a final figure of 8.44C. Something about 8.5C feels about right at the moment.

Oh, how quickly things change in the meteorological world!  (well, on this damp & dreary lump of rock anyway). I'd been hoping the CET would fall toward 8c, but current NWP suggests this is a pipe dream

Met Office Hadley           9.2c.      Anomaly      2.0c.    Provisional  to  19th.

Metcheck                       8.84c.    Anomaly      1.92c.

N-W                              9.46c.    Anomaly      2.57c.

Mount  Sorrel                 8.67c.    Anomaly      1.77c.

My   Mean                      9.1c.     Anomaly       2.7c.

Here:

4.98c

Mean min 1.77c

Mean max 8.18c

Current output suggests a final November CET of exactly 8.50C. That would certainly do me nicely.

A bit of a mixed bag coming up. Relatively cool tomorrow but warm on Saturday. Monday looks chilly. Last 3 days of the month look warm.

Met Office Hadley       9.1c.      Anomaly      2.0c.  Provisional to  20th.

Metcheck                   8.78c.    Anomaly      1.86c.

N-W                           9.36c.   Anomaly       2.46c.

Mount Sorrel               8.55c.   Anomaly       1.65c.

My  Mean                    9.0c.    Anomaly        2.6c.  

Met Office Hadley     9.1c.     Anomaly     2.0c.   Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                 8.78c.   Anomaly     1.86c.

N-W                        9.27c.   Anomaly     2.37c.

Mount Sorrel            8.55c.   Anomaly     1.65c.

My  Mean                 9.0c.    Anomaly      2.6c.     

Met office Hadley    9.2c.     Anomaly     2.2c.  Provisional to  22nd.

Metcheck               8.81c.   Anomaly      1.89c.

N-W                      9.37c.   Anomaly       2.48c.

Mount Sorrel         8.65c.    Anomaly       1.75c.

My Mean               9.1c.     Anomaly        2.7c,

Wonder how much the CET will drop up to mid week with cold nights and chilly days on offer?