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Offline ARTzeman  
#121 Posted : 26 October 2014 12:22:06(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,612
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley     12.2c.   Anomaly   1.2c.  Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                 11.92c.  Anomaly   1.41c.

N- W                       12.65c.  Anomaly   2.26c.

Mount Sorrel            12.09c.  Anomaly   1.69c.

My Mean                  12.4c.    Anomaly   0.0c.      

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Saint Snow  
#122 Posted : 27 October 2014 09:13:20(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 42,857
Man
Location: St Helens

Bit of a disaster for me this month

The high minimums for the past couple of weeks has kept the CET up a level I'd not expected. Bugger.

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Stormchaser  
#123 Posted : 27 October 2014 10:42:00(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,737
Man
Location: West Hants

I'm glad the nights of Tue-Wed and Wed-Thu aren't looking nearly as chilly as GFS was going for a few days ago - it means I'm in with a shot of finally being within 0.5*C of the CET, which given how down on luck I've been lately would be a nice change!

Still a bit of a close call though as a stalled frontal system looks to keep maximums in the 9-12*C range across the CET zone on Wednesday. I'm guessing the CET will end up a smidge below GW's estimate based on data on 24th October, as that was when the LP to the west was looking to be closer to our shores midweek, allowing Wednesday to hit the high teens.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#124 Posted : 27 October 2014 13:18:42(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,612
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley    12.2c.   Anomaly  1.3c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                11.99c. Anomaly  1.48c.

N-W                       12.66c.  Anomaly  2.27c.

Mount Sorrel           12.15c. Anomaly   1.75c.

My Mean                 12.4c.   Anomaly  0.0c.

      

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#125 Posted : 28 October 2014 12:02:51(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,612
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley   12.3c.   Anomaly  1.4c. provisional to 27th.

Metcheck               12.05c. Anomaly  1.54c.

N-W                      12.74c. Anomaly  2.35c.

Mount Sorrel          12.21c. Anomaly  1.81c.

My  Mean               12.5c.  Anomaly   1.00c.

    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Global Warming  
#126 Posted : 28 October 2014 21:37:08(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

The CET now stands at 12.29C by my calculations.

Some big swings in temperature over the next few days. A chilly one tomorrow with the CET probably just below 10C (all relative of course - still above average for 29 Oct). However on Friday the CET could reach 15.8C which would easily be a date record.

Highest CET for 31 Oct at the moment is 14.5C from 1772. We will smash that figure.

I currently expect the CET to finish at 12.36C so just coming in below last year's figure of 12.5C.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Rob K  
#127 Posted : 29 October 2014 10:16:39(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,949
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

 

 

 

I'd never really thought about how late in the year the peak annual CET is. I suppose it makes sense that it keeps rising until the CET dips below the annual mean, but at first it seems counterintuitive that the peak annual CET comes in mid autumn!

 

Nevertheless it looks like 2014 should have the latest ever peak, at least out of the  hot years pictured. Both 1989 and 2006 look like they peaked around November 1st.

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Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Frost Hollow  
#128 Posted : 29 October 2014 12:36:04(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

IMBY

Back upto 8.01c following the mild weekend

Mean min 4.04c

Mean max 11.98c

 

Offline ARTzeman  
#129 Posted : 29 October 2014 12:39:21(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,612
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley    12.4c.    Anomaly  1.6c.  Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                12.06c.  Anomaly  1.55c.

N-W                       12.82c.  Anomaly  2.45c.

Mount   Sorrel         12.26c.  Anomaly  1.86c.

My   Mean               12.6c.   Anomaly   2.0c.

   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Online TimS  
#130 Posted : 29 October 2014 12:57:35(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 9,461
Location: Brockley

The target anomaly for the rest of the year to beat the record CET is going down fast now - at the start of Oct we were needing something like +1.15C for the remaining 3 months. Yesterday it was +0.99C, today it's down to +0.85C.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline ARTzeman  
#131 Posted : 30 October 2014 12:04:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,612
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley   12.3c.     Anomaly    1.6c.    Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck               12.6c.     Anomaly    1.55c.

 N- W                    12.75c    Anomaly    2.36c.

Mount Sorrel          12.23c.   Anomaly    1.83C.   

My    Mean             12.5c     Anomaly     1.0c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#132 Posted : 31 October 2014 12:31:25(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 25,612
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley  12.3c.    Anomaly   1.6c. Provisional to 30th

Metcheck              12.6c.    Anomaly   1.65c.

N-W                     12.83c.  Anomaly   2.44c.

Mount Sorrel         12.37c.  Anomaly   2.44c.

My  Mean              12.6c.   Anomaly    0.1c.

 

Average  of the 5    12.54c.  

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Global Warming  
#133 Posted : 31 October 2014 20:48:18(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

Today's CET return of 16.8C (my provisional estimate) is obviously a record for 31 Oct.

More interestingly today was the equal 31st warmest in terms of mean temperature of ANY October day on record in the CET area going back to 1772 (out of over 7,500 October days). That is simply staggering when you consider that temperatures are generally much higher in the early part of October than at the end of the month.

No October day after the 11th has ever had a CET mean higher than the 16.8C recorded today.

The closest comparison I can find for such a high mean temperature this late in the month is 27th October 1888 which saw a mean of 16.7C.

The minimum CET today was 12.9C and the maximum 20.7C.

My final CET estimate for October is 12.39C which is 0.13C lower than last year's figure of 12.52C.

Here is a list of the warmest October days (in terms of mean temperature in the CET area) on record

The weather on 27 Oct 1888 saw a very active front across western areas give extremely heavy rain. Here are some rainfall stats for that day for Cumbria courtesy of CumbriaWeatherWiki http://www.cumbriaweatherforum.co.uk/wiki/index.php?title=1888

27th - Bowness, Fallbarrow Rain 2.45in, heaviest for 7 years - Ambelsid, Lesketh Howe heaviest rain for 20 years 4.08in (103mm) - Patterdale Hall. Rain 4.45in more than 1inch larger than any other fall in 24hrs during 10 years.

A deep area of low pressure to the west of the UK drew in some very warm air from the Azores. 850hPa temperatures were above 10C widely across England, Wales and Northern Ireland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1888/Rrea00118881027.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1888/Rrea00218881027.gif

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Edited by user 31 October 2014 20:53:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#134 Posted : 01 November 2014 13:02:45(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

The October CET came in officially at 12.48C so only 0.04C lower than last year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

Congratulations to Hungry Tiger who predicted 12.5C.

The CET for yesterday came in at 16.9C so a shade higher than my estimate.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Online lanky  
#135 Posted : 01 November 2014 13:03:20(UTC)
lanky

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,466
Man

The MetO have the finalized figure for October 2014 as 12.5 (rounded up from 12.48)

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

 

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#136 Posted : 01 November 2014 19:50:29(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 24,718
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

The October CET came in officially at 12.48C so only 0.04C lower than last year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

Congratulations to Hungry Tiger who predicted 12.5C.

The CET for yesterday came in at 16.9C so a shade higher than my estimate.

:-) 

Gavin S.

UserPostedImage

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.

Offline Global Warming  
#137 Posted : 03 November 2014 21:57:00(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

Here are the charts for October. A fraction cooler than 2013 and (to one decimal) only the equal 6th warmest October since 1995.

But it was still the second month of 2014 to see an anomaly of greater than 2C.

Overall the Autumn CET is now 1.73C above the 1971-2000 mean. This is the equal 6th warmest first two months of Autumn on record.

The years with a warmer Sept / Oct combination than 2014 are in chronological order - 1795, 1949, 2005, 2006 and 2011.

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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#138 Posted : 03 November 2014 22:10:43(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

The CET competition league table update for October will be published around 2200 tomorrow evening.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Saint Snow  
#139 Posted : 04 November 2014 11:28:29(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 42,857
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

The CET competition league table update for October will be published around 2200 tomorrow evening.

 

I'm expecting to plummet down the table after that October 

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Global Warming  
#140 Posted : 05 November 2014 20:58:22(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,108

Sorry for the delay. Ended up rather busy yesterday. Here are the tables for October.

No movement at the top but Darren S has had his lead cut a little.

Gusty is now the only person to have been inside the top 10 every month this year. His lowest position was 6th in January.

wallaw continues a steady climb up the table from 25th back in July up to 4th now.

The other big mover inside the top 10 this month is Hungry Tiger who was spot on with his October prediction. He moves up 12 places to 10th, although he was as high as 6th back in February.

Hot on his heels is lanky up 9 places to 11th.

The other big climber this month in top half of the table is Weathermac up 9 places to 17th, equalling his highest position from July.

After a disappointing year so far Stormchaser is finally starting to storm up the tables with a rise of 10 places this month.

Still all to play for though. December in particular has often been a notoriously difficult month to predict so expect further changes before the end of the year.

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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
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