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Offline wallaw  
#21 Posted : 29 September 2014 21:09:22(UTC)
wallaw

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,092
Man
Location: Stockton-on-Tees

i will risk 12.3 please
Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

Offline NeilM  
#22 Posted : 29 September 2014 23:39:03(UTC)
NeilM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 936
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Walney, Barrow

I'll go for 11.25C.

Walney Island, Barrow - 0m asl

My New website, www.omuiri-photography.co.uk, please visit, feedback welcome.

Offline Chidog  
#23 Posted : 30 September 2014 08:10:31(UTC)
Chidog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 241
Location: Coulsdon

Punting at 11.3C please. 

Offline Global Warming  
#24 Posted : 30 September 2014 08:42:43(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,439
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

The models have really shifted since I opened up this thread just two days ago. A change to much cooler and very unsettled conditions was always on the cards from the 5th but this has now firmed up and been accentuated in the latest output. So much so that by the 13th the CET may now only be 0.3C above the 1971-2000 mean (entirely due to the first few days) and actually slightly below the 1981-2010 mean.

These sudden shifts from benign and warm late summer to full on Autumn are not unusual. For example this year is taking a very similar path to 2004. In that year September saw a CET of 14.9C which is basically the same as we have had this year. The last day of September closed on a CET of 15.3C. It was also a fairly dry month, although not as dry as this year, with 50mm on the EWP which is well below the mean of 78mm.

October 2004 opened up with a CET of 11.1C and remained at around 11-12C for the first few days. Then between the 7th and the 21st the CET was frequently in single figures with a few days nudging above 10C. It was also wet. The 3rd saw over 22mm on the EWP although much of the first 12 days saw relatively small amounts of rain. But from the 13th onward it was very wet. In broad terms I sense something similar shaping up for 2014.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#25 Posted : 30 September 2014 08:49:36(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,439
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Very difficult this month but I'll go for 11.2C. Unsettled for much of the month and cool at times. Maximums likely to be depressed but minimums probably holding up well due to regular wind and rain. Hence why I am going for something over 11C rather than in the 10's.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Charmhills  
#26 Posted : 30 September 2014 09:02:20(UTC)
Charmhills

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 47,138
Man
Location: Everywhere

11.1c for me and an unsettled month ahead mostly.

Duane.

Edicius81  
#27 Posted : 30 September 2014 11:33:35(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

I'm really not sure about this one. The available data suggests at least 0.5 over, but that GFS run of a few days ago showing the mega fetch easterly has put doubts in my mind that October may go the way of August. I think I'll need to gamble at some point if I want to get towards the top of the table, so...

10.5C please

Offline RobSnowman  
#28 Posted : 30 September 2014 11:35:36(UTC)
RobSnowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,402
Man

10.9 please
I built this snowman of myself.
Offline speckledjim  
#29 Posted : 30 September 2014 11:39:08(UTC)
speckledjim

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/07/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,261
Location: Thorner, West Yorkshire 112m asl

11.3c please
Journalism is organised gossip
Offline Snow Hoper  
#30 Posted : 30 September 2014 11:50:39(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,069
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper Go to Quoted Post

12.03c for me please.

 

 

 

 

I've seen enough to make my one and only change and bring it down to 11.03c

 

Thanks

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline Tractor Boy  
#31 Posted : 30 September 2014 12:06:19(UTC)
Tractor Boy

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/07/2006(UTC)
Posts: 278

9.9C please.

Strategic guess as I've completely fluffed September. Going for broke.

Dave

Cropton, North York Moors

Offline rickm  
#32 Posted : 30 September 2014 12:06:51(UTC)
rickm

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2007(UTC)
Posts: 619
Location: Maidstone

10.6 for me this month please

Offline Saint Snow  
#33 Posted : 30 September 2014 12:24:53(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 47,865
Man
Location: St Helens

11c

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline warrenb  
#34 Posted : 30 September 2014 13:00:14(UTC)
warrenb

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,983
Man
Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Going for a 9.6C please.

Ta

Offline Gusty  
#35 Posted : 30 September 2014 13:27:30(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,675
Man
Location: Folkestone

11.4c please smile

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline Frank H  
#36 Posted : 30 September 2014 16:08:26(UTC)
Frank H

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 159
Location: Wrightington, Wigan

10.5c please

Offline Dougie  
#37 Posted : 30 September 2014 17:28:28(UTC)
Dougie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

10.9°c please.

Ha'way the lads
Offline redmoons  
#38 Posted : 30 September 2014 17:30:37(UTC)
redmoons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,404
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

Another warm month so i will go for 11.5c 

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Offline Duncan McAlister  
#39 Posted : 30 September 2014 18:13:48(UTC)
Duncan McAlister

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 22/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 488
Location: Ayr

11.4 for me please.

Online Devonian  
#40 Posted : 30 September 2014 18:39:15(UTC)
Devonian

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 29,477
Man
Location: East Dartmoor

11.7C please.

"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19

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