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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 28 September 2014 10:25:19(UTC)
Global Warming

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Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,107

The warm weather has returned during September with another month more than 1C above the 1971-2000 mean. A record CET year therefore is very much back on track. October looks like starting on a warm note as well. The models have for some time now wanted to break down the warm settled weather from about T240. But every day this breakdown gets pushed out further. So it is very difficult to assess at the moment when the breakdown / pattern change will occur. It could be just a week away or it could be much longer. Even if it does turn more unsettled it may still remain fairly mild. October can be a very difficult month to predict as it is often the time that the Atlantic storms start to roll in, as we saw last year, when the temperature gradients between the Poles and the Tropics start to crank up. But if we keep high pressure and blocking in place for much of the month then we will see very different weather conditions. Even high pressure causes problems at this time of year. Will it be cool and rather cloudy with a fog and frost risk or will the position of the high draw in warm air from the south?

Please post your October CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Tuesday evening (30th). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 October.

October historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

There have been six very warm Octobers since 1995 with a CET of 12.5C or more - 1995, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2011 and 2013. There have been a small number of cold Octobers below 10C in the same period being 2003, 2008 and 2012.  

Have we ever had an October warmer than May when the May CET was more than 12C? Well yes we only have to go back to 2011 when the May CET was 12.2C and October was 12.6C. 2006 and 2001 also saw a similar pattern. Maybe something similar again this year?

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 10.4C
1981-2010: 10.7C
1989-2013: 10.9C
1994-2013: 11.4C

Here is a chart of the October CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average.

The 10 year moving average has now hit 11.4C which is the highest ever for October. This is a full 0.5C above the 15 year moving average of 10.9C.

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

The op run is above average throughout but something of a split in the ensembles from 4 Oct with a few runs turning much cooler.

ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn

Also looks fairly warm initially but the 2m temperatures turn cooler from the 5th on the op run and the mean but with a lot of scatter. Plenty of runs keep it very mild.

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
Generally warm days but rather cool nights. In the second half of the month temperatures may trend back towards average overall.

Pattern matching (just for fun)
If we look at years where both the August and September CET have been close to 15C there are not too many matches. The best matches since 1900 are 1929, 1934, 1961, 1985 and 2011. The October CET was above average in all those years except 1929 when it was 9.6C. 2011 of course was very warm with 12.6C.

If we look at years with a September CET of 14.5C or more and rainfall on the EWP of less than 50mm then we have 1929, 1941, 1947, 1959, 1985 and 1989. Again all years saw a CET of at least 10.4C except 1929.

Finally considering years with a very warm CET overall (>11.3C as at the end of September) we have 14 matches since 1900. Only 1 of these 14 years had an October CET less than 10C. No fewer than 8 years saw an October CET more than 11.5C.

Bringing this all together there does seem to be a fairly strong signal for a warm October.

In my view the best overall match with 2014 is possibly 1989. That year did of course see a very warm winter so I personally would not rule out a repeat of last winter. Many people have been talking about similarities with 1985. Certainly August and September have been very similar but otherwise 1985 was quite different.

Looking further back in the archives one year that has a number of similarities to 2014 is 1846 (which holds the record currently for the warmest Jan-Sep period in the CET history). That year saw a cool October followed by an average November and then a very cold winter with December being especially cold at 0.5C. But equally one could point to plenty of differences between 1846 and 2014.

So as ever this is JFF and anything is possible. But on balance I favour a warm or very warm October with only about a 15% chance of a colder than average October.  

Latest forecast October CET tracker

Turning cooler from the 5th on the latest output but still staying slightly above average. Even with this cool down we are still 1.2C above the 1971-2000 mean by the 11th.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by moderator 29 October 2014 14:55:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline Global Warming  
#2 Posted : 28 September 2014 10:31:13(UTC)
Global Warming

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ARTzeman  

#133 Posted : 26 September 2014 08:34:59

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ARTzeman


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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

12.4c  For me please. Regardless of the consequences ....wink  In October.....






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.

  

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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Global Warming  
#3 Posted : 28 September 2014 10:33:59(UTC)
Global Warming

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Prediction via PM from roger63

October CET 11.5 C.

Thanks

roger63

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Hippydave  
#4 Posted : 28 September 2014 10:37:45(UTC)
Hippydave

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Joined: 10/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,058
Location: Tunbridge Wells

I'll have a punt at 10.4c 

I reckon the models are going to swing cool and unsettled for the last half of the month, sufficiently so to overcome the warm start.

Well that and I wanted to to go cool, all these above average guesses are getting tedious

 

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: East Grinstead

Offline ARTzeman  
#5 Posted : 28 September 2014 11:14:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

No doubt another month being high until end of the last TWO weeks.. ..Not referring to my socks either....

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Deep Powder  
#6 Posted : 28 September 2014 16:40:13(UTC)
Deep Powder

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,433
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

10.9c for me please......
Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline Norseman  
#7 Posted : 28 September 2014 18:46:14(UTC)
Norseman

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,781
Location: Dundee

10.8C for me.
Offline cowman  
#8 Posted : 28 September 2014 20:04:51(UTC)
cowman

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Man
United Kingdom
Location: uttoxeter

10.9cfor me GW please.
Offline springsunshine  
#9 Posted : 28 September 2014 20:21:18(UTC)
springsunshine

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Posts: 1,156
Location: Bournemouth

11.5c please gw

Offline domma  
#10 Posted : 29 September 2014 07:10:47(UTC)
domma

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Location: Kirkham, North Yorkshire

11.9c for me, thanks

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gary

Offline lanky  
#11 Posted : 29 September 2014 09:04:00(UTC)
lanky

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I'll have a punt with 12.0C please

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Offline Roonie  
#12 Posted : 29 September 2014 09:20:10(UTC)
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Location: North Worcestershire

10.2 please

:)

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline Frostbite80  
#13 Posted : 29 September 2014 10:01:08(UTC)
Frostbite80

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 30/08/2010(UTC)
Posts: 673
Location: Stevenage, Hertfordshire

11.2 for me please :-)
Offline kendalian  
#14 Posted : 29 September 2014 11:31:31(UTC)
kendalian

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/12/2006(UTC)
Posts: 74

11.7C for me please

Offline Weathermac  
#15 Posted : 29 September 2014 12:16:19(UTC)
Weathermac

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Posts: 1,419
Location: Bedworth Warwickshire

12.2c CET for me please.
Offline AlvinMeister  
#16 Posted : 29 September 2014 13:34:49(UTC)
AlvinMeister

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/07/2006(UTC)
Posts: 899
Man
Location: Salford, Manchester

Not as warm as first appearing. 10.9C please.

Salford, Manchester 67m ASL
Offline scillydave  
#17 Posted : 29 September 2014 15:40:09(UTC)
scillydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 482
Man
Location: Birdlip, Gloucestershire 292m asl

Put me down for 12.1 please
Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter.
Offline Snow Hoper  
#18 Posted : 29 September 2014 15:59:37(UTC)
Snow Hoper

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Posts: 38,053
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

12.03c for me please.

 

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#19 Posted : 29 September 2014 18:47:20(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Posts: 5,563
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Very hard month to predict but I'll go for 10.49c please.

Offline Surrey John  
#20 Posted : 29 September 2014 20:07:40(UTC)
Surrey John

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Joined: 19/10/2007(UTC)
Posts: 715
Man
Location: Kingston upon Thames

Hello, Difficult month to call, after a few warm days expect a cooldown, can I try 11.11c please
Kingston upon Thames

15m ASL

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