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Offline KevBrads1  
#861 Posted : 04 January 2015 08:39:38(UTC)
KevBrads1

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Posts: 28,476
Location: Irlam

It's been a strange feeling winter. It doesn't feel like it has been wintry even though I have seen more frosts than last winter thus far and the field behind me was snow covered from Boxing Day night to New Year's Eve, the longest period such period since December 2010

Edited by user 04 January 2015 09:38:37(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline bruced  
#862 Posted : 04 January 2015 11:40:25(UTC)
bruced

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Please could someone direct me to a solar monitoring website?  There was an excellent solar cycle thread in the now non-existent climate forum on TWO and I don't know if there is a thread any more.

I'm thinking that solar activity might still be high as we are just past the peak of this current cycle, and this might be contributing to our relatively mild winter (although it is colder than last year's mild fest).

Thank you

David

Northallerton

David
Offline KevBrads1  
#863 Posted : 04 January 2015 12:48:56(UTC)
KevBrads1

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Location: Irlam

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach Go to Quoted Post
I wonder whether people felt the same in 1939-40, 1981-2 and 1990-1? They all occurred just after the peak of a solar cycle.

1947 was just three months before the peak.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles

I do know what you mean though. There's a fair list of "Hale" winters to choose from too. Just thought I'd throw those examples out there.

The 5 great winters of the 20th century (1916-17, 1928-29, 1939-40, 1962-63, 1978-79) , 3 of them occurred near a solar maxima.

I don't know what has happened to me recently but my scepticism has deepened. People are blaming solar activity for this winter not delivering so far. Solar activity is lower than a number of recent peaks. Low solar activity alone doesn't explain the great winters above.

We are told sudden stratospheric warming events increases the chance of northerly blocking and cold episodes.

I go along with that but it doesn't explain a number of cold outbreaks. Where was the SSW that resulted in late Nov-Dec 2010? The coldest part of winter 1976-77 occurred before the SSW. 

I would say  that a SSW gives you a chance of breaking out of a weather pattern but if you are in a cold pattern and you want to maintain it, would you want a SSW to occur?

Then there is OPI and SAI. It seems that things are not going according to plan here. The trouble seems to be the low pressure anomaly over the Barents-Kara region. 

NAO, AO, OPI, SAI, PDO, AMO, SSW, MWW, ENSO.....it's an alphabet soup of complexities.

 

 

 

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

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Offline ARTzeman  
#864 Posted : 04 January 2015 12:53:54(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: bruced Go to Quoted Post

Please could someone direct me to a solar monitoring website?  There was an excellent solar cycle thread in the now non-existent climate forum on TWO and I don't know if there is a thread any more.

I'm thinking that solar activity might still be high as we are just past the peak of this current cycle, and this might be contributing to our relatively mild winter (although it is colder than last year's mild fest).

Thank you

David

Northallerton

Current Solar Data: NOAA data 

Maybe handy.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#865 Posted : 04 January 2015 14:52:35(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

 

Current Solar Data: NOAA data 

Maybe handy.

Or 

SpaceWeather.com

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline ARTzeman  
#866 Posted : 04 January 2015 16:10:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Solarham.net

Solarmonitor.org

tesilebeder.ru

 

All have solar charts.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Twister  
#867 Posted : 04 January 2015 16:38:45(UTC)
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Location: Egerton, Kent 33mASL

A sub 2C day today around here - could be one of the coldest maxima of the year! 

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL

Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)

Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39

Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)

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Online Jonesy  
#868 Posted : 05 January 2015 11:48:47(UTC)
Jonesy

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Location: Medway

Does anyone remember the year when Winter was poor for snow & cold but then as soon as early spring arrived we got a fair bit of snow in the South?

What odds on that happening again this year 

 

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .

Offline Stormchaser  
#869 Posted : 05 January 2015 17:32:28(UTC)
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Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: Jonesy Go to Quoted Post

Does anyone remember the year when Winter was poor for snow & cold but then as soon as early spring arrived we got a fair bit of snow in the South?

What odds on that happening again this year 

 

Was that 2008 when we got a heavy fall in Easter?

 

I am actually becoming quite worried that the coldest patterns will be developing later in February and persisting through March this year, similar to 2013.

March 2013 was interesting as a case study but delivered nothing more than a bit of wet snow that melted on contact with the ground. The impact on SSTs then made warm conditions here in the far south rather restricted until late June that year. I also think they held back July 2013 a bit and prevented it from being close to 2006 in terms of the heat... admittedly a silver lining for those who don't fare well in such conditions.

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Offline bruced  
#870 Posted : 05 January 2015 22:58:32(UTC)
bruced

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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

 

Was that 2008 when we got a heavy fall in Easter?

 

I am actually becoming quite worried that the coldest patterns will be developing later in February and persisting through March this year, similar to 2013.

March 2013 was interesting as a case study but delivered nothing more than a bit of wet snow that melted on contact with the ground. The impact on SSTs then made warm conditions here in the far south rather restricted until late June that year. I also think they held back July 2013 a bit and prevented it from being close to 2006 in terms of the heat... admittedly a silver lining for those who don't fare well in such conditions.

 

If the cold comes towards the end of Feb and persist through March then, IMO, all well and good.  If nothing else, it will potentially be the first period (of more than a few days) of colder than average conditions since August (or possibly earlier). If the cold does come, it might hopefully be the beginning of a cooler few months/year, although I'm probably stretching my imagination a bit too much here!!

David

Northallerton

David
Online Jonesy  
#871 Posted : 06 January 2015 09:17:22(UTC)
Jonesy

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Location: Medway

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

 

Was that 2008 when we got a heavy fall in Easter?

 

I think your right stormchaser and from memory it was a Sunday night, I remember sitting in my lounge and noticing something out the window, it took a good minute or so to sink in that it was actually snowing, I can't remember the actual 2007/2008 Winter though so not sure if the April (Sring) snowfall was all we had??

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants when it wants no matter what data is thrown at it !

RIP Dougie - The Current Conditions Thread Master .

Offline Saint Snow  
#872 Posted : 06 January 2015 09:27:32(UTC)
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With the charts out to mid-Jan showing nothing cold & snowy, that's half of winter gone with no decent cold spell*

Another winter turning into a dud?

 

 

 

* the post-Xmas spell here gave a snowfall that was half-melted by drizzle/rain afterwards, followed by a few frosts - distinctly underwhelming

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Offline bradders  
#873 Posted : 06 January 2015 16:38:39(UTC)
bradders

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United Kingdom
Location: Stockport.

Originally Posted by: Jonesy Go to Quoted Post

 

I think your right stormchaser and from memory it was a Sunday night, I remember sitting in my lounge and noticing something out the window, it took a good minute or so to sink in that it was actually snowing, I can't remember the actual 2007/2008 Winter though so not sure if the April (Sring) snowfall was all we had??

We had an inch of snow on Easter Sunday night, 23rd  March 2008.

Another overnight snowfall of an inch on 6/7th April, a Sunday night again.

We also had some snow showers on the evening of 1st February. The winter overall was fairly mild here.

Eric. Cheadle Hulme, Stockport.

Offline Medlock Vale Weather  
#874 Posted : 06 January 2015 19:09:57(UTC)
Medlock Vale Weather

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Location: Oldham

Originally Posted by: bradders Go to Quoted Post

We had an inch of snow on Easter Sunday night, 23rd  March 2008.

Another overnight snowfall of an inch on 6/7th April, a Sunday night again.

We also had some snow showers on the evening of 1st February. The winter overall was fairly mild here.

Had about 4 inches of snow here that night, was quite unexpected as it wasn't forecasted for more than a cm or so. We've had a few snowy March's over the past 10 years or so, most notably 2006, 2008, 2013. Can we get another one? I wouldn't bet against it. It would seem early Spring is more favourable to get cold to our shores as the Atlantic traditionally settles down. 

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 93 metres/305 feet above sea level.

Website: http://medlockweather.weebly.com

Weather station location: http://bit.ly/VI9CNu

What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/...wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Offline Whether Idle  
#875 Posted : 06 January 2015 19:30:41(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather Go to Quoted Post

 

Had about 4 inches of snow here that night, was quite unexpected as it wasn't forecasted for more than a cm or so. We've had a few snowy March's over the past 10 years or so, most notably 2006, 2008, 2013. Can we get another one? I wouldn't bet against it. It would seem early Spring is more favourable to get cold to our shores as the Atlantic traditionally settles down. 

March has long been snowier than December for many areas and I think that trend has intensified over a long term average of 30 years.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
sparky71a  
#876 Posted : 13 January 2015 18:17:21(UTC)
Guest

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Posts: 6,714

Just had Thunder Snow with superb fork lighting over Nunthorpe Middlesbrough! One very happy weather geek!

Offline KevBrads1  
#877 Posted : 19 January 2015 19:04:01(UTC)
KevBrads1

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Posts: 28,476
Location: Irlam

Manchester Winter Index is at 40 currently just past the halfway.

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

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Offline seringador  
#878 Posted : 20 January 2015 23:47:25(UTC)
seringador

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Portugal
Location: Porto

Kevin, by reading your posts with your index is a good symptom...correct?
2018 Extremes

Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)

Min Temp: 0.7ºC ( 28.01.2018)

Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)

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Offline KevBrads1  
#879 Posted : 22 January 2015 08:30:21(UTC)
KevBrads1

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Location: Irlam

Originally Posted by: seringador Go to Quoted Post
Kevin, by reading your posts with your index is a good symptom...correct?

Sorry, I don't follow what you mean by a good symptom?

 

 

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

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Offline seringador  
#880 Posted : 22 January 2015 09:52:50(UTC)
seringador

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Man
Portugal
Location: Porto

Is't a good sign that index rise?
2018 Extremes

Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)

Min Temp: 0.7ºC ( 28.01.2018)

Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)

@iClimateAdviser

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