Originally Posted by: seringador

Is't a good sign that index rise?

Yes, if you like wintry weather. The higher the index, the more wintrier that winter was.

For instance last winter was just 7. I have never know a winter as so lacking in wintry weather than last winter. It was an absolute shocker. 

Probably will see it in March though..

Last 7 winters

2008-09: 105

2009-10: 197

2010-11: 119

2011-12: 47

2012-13: 102

2013-14: 7

2014-15: 63 (up to 30th January)

An average of 91. Compare to the previous 7 winters prior to this grouping: 44

Winters of recent times have been more wintrier than those of late 80s to mid 2000s despite have in effect a non winter in 2013-14.

After what was a disappointing overnight period, the snow finally fell the next morning. Despite the wet ground, snow accumulated easily. 29th January.

That night, there was the polar low, some despute over whether it was actually one but it delivered snow here

Not convince we will see much now before the meteorological winter ends.

Not exactly on topic, but a spring discussion thread rarely fares well on TWO so I'll stick this here:

That's a pretty strong signal emerging for March from the CFS model. It translates to surface highs more toward Central/Eastern Europe with surface lows running close to the NW of the UK.

Potentially chilly at times if an easterly flow has any influence early in the month, otherwise a good chance of increasingly above average temperatures in a SW flow with variable surface conditions in the UK, driest in the SE.

Usual caveats apply - only one model, LRFs are often a bit hopeless, etc.

Looking on an broader time scale, here's the Met Office ensemble mean outlook for SLP across spring 2015 as a whole:

Another strong signal,  this time for the Azores High to be strong and often displaced or ridging across the UK.

By contrast, the January update had a fairly strong negative pressure anomaly centered over Scotland. Though this was for Feb-Apr rather than Mar-May, it still suggests a fairly big shift in the model's ideas for a fairly large part of spring.

As usual, a similar setup then persists with only slight changes when looking at the Apr-Jun and May-Jul maps. Overall, that would be a very dry outcome for the SW in particular, but then this model suite does seem to have a habit of sticking with the same idea for months on end.

I do wish we could freely see mean charts for the upcoming month in isolation, but I guess they feel that would take some value away from the pay-to-access products that offer such focus.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Manchester Winter Index
1978-79: 262
2009-10: 197
1985-86: 159
1981-82: 149
1976-77: 141
1984-85: 140
1995-96: 135
1990-91: 126
2010-11: 119
2008-09: 105
2012-13: 102
1986-87: 100
1977-78: 90
1980-81: 90
1982-83: 85
1983-84: 82
2014-15: 82
1993-94: 78
2000-01: 77
1996-97: 72
1979-80: 66
2005-06: 59
2001-02: 50
2003-04: 50
1998-99: 47
2004-05: 47
2011-12: 47
1994-95: 45
2002-03: 44
1992-93: 43
1975-76: 41
1991-92: 40
1987-88: 37
2007-08: 37
1973-74: 30
1974-75: 26
1989-90: 26
1997-98: 25
2006-07: 21
1988-89: 20
2013-14: 7

Have issued a verification for the Winter 2014/15 forecast which you can see here;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/verification-winter-14-15.php

This brings the curtain down on Winter 14/15.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

 

 

Shocked this winter was so high, certainly my perception of the 2000/01 winter was that it was much better - although one of the 2 good snow events took place in March, so strictly speaking not winter.

Anyway, this winter was consistently *cool* and only actually cold for one brief spell. We had - I think - 3 occasions of lying snow, with the unexpected 2-3cm on Boxing Day the best. But on each occasion the snow was far too shortlived; on BD for instance it turned to rain toward the end of the period of PPN and halved the depth into a slush-fest

A really frustrating winter to experience.

I think this winter more than any recent winter has been dependent on location. I think that was due to the marginality and the polar maritime airmases that occurred more often than recent winters. Snow covered the field behind me in total for 7 days. Patches of snow lasted in the back garden in total for nearly a fortnight.

I don't recall  March 2001 delivering a snow event here. I remember the snow coming from that frontal system pushing up from the south but it never stuck at least here.

Edited by user 08 March 2015 06:34:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1

I think this winter more than any recent winter has been dependent on location. I think that was due to the marginality and the polar maritime airmases that occurred more often than recent winters. Snow covered the field behind me in total for 7 days. Patches of snow lasted in the back garden in total for nearly a fortnight.

And the shady part of my back garden had snow lying for around 7 days. Where my dad cleared his drive, the snow-pile stuck around for about a fortnight (it became a running joke)

It just seemed the wrong side of marginal, as you say, for anything interesting to be sustained. I remember the Dec 09 (and indeed the Xmas 04) snowfall being from PM air - characterised here by a mixing in of snow pellets. This time, even though the local atmospheric parameters seemed very similar, what fell from the sky was too often rain/sleet instead of snow.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1

I don't recall  March 2001 delivering a snow event here. I remember the snow coming from that frontal system pushing up from the south but it never stuck at least here.

We got around 5cmcm. I remember going to Haigh Hall near Wigan that day and they had about 15cm. Our snow cover didn't last much beyond the next day. But, given the great snowfall on the preceding 29th Dec, and the snow-drought that had come in the winters before, it was a winter that stuck in the mind.

I've realised that, in many set-ups, there's no prescriptive methodology when it comes to forecasting snow in particular locales. Yes, the odds are that Buxton and other high-altitude places will get snow anyway.

But we've had snow here in St Helens when other neighbouring areas have had none.

Until 2013, I never had much hope for snow from an easterly, yet we had 2 or 3 events in Jan/Mar where further east toward Manchester there was little/no snow, yet here further west we got a few decent dumpings.

Similarly, we've benefitted from a NW'ly off the Irish Sea (track is around 20 miles to the sea from here looking NW'wards) with heavier/more sustained snow at times than further inland, yet other times we've had sleet/wet snow/even rain when further inland has had snow.

I've learnt to not expect anything (but sulk if we don't get snow and others do )