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Offline KevBrads1  
#881 Posted : 22 January 2015 10:28:45(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,639
Location: Irlam

Originally Posted by: seringador Go to Quoted Post
Is't a good sign that index rise?

Yes, if you like wintry weather. The higher the index, the more wintrier that winter was.

For instance last winter was just 7. I have never know a winter as so lacking in wintry weather than last winter. It was an absolute shocker. 

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline David M Porter  
#882 Posted : 22 January 2015 17:26:11(UTC)
David M Porter

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC)
Posts: 17,482
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Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

 

Yes, if you like wintry weather. The higher the index, the more wintrier that winter was.

For instance last winter was just 7. I have never know a winter as so lacking in wintry weather than last winter. It was an absolute shocker. 

Same here, Kevin. I can hardly recall another winter which saw so little by way of even any frost, let alone snow.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline seringador  
#883 Posted : 24 January 2015 21:24:27(UTC)
seringador

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,434
Man
Portugal
Location: Porto

Thanks Kevin!

Probably will see it in March though..

2018 Extremes

Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)

Min Temp: 0.7ºC ( 28.01.2018)

Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)

@iClimateAdviser

Offline KevBrads1  
#884 Posted : 31 January 2015 12:42:01(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,639
Location: Irlam

Manchester Winter Index

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 197

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2010-11: 119

2008-09: 105

2012-13: 102

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1989-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2014-15: 63 (up to 30th Jan)

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

2013-14: 7

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline KevBrads1  
#885 Posted : 31 January 2015 19:00:00(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,639
Location: Irlam

Last 7 winters

2008-09: 105

2009-10: 197

2010-11: 119

2011-12: 47

2012-13: 102

2013-14: 7

2014-15: 63 (up to 30th January)

An average of 91. Compare to the previous 7 winters prior to this grouping: 44

Winters of recent times have been more wintrier than those of late 80s to mid 2000s despite have in effect a non winter in 2013-14.

 

 

 

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline KevBrads1  
#886 Posted : 11 February 2015 08:03:34(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,639
Location: Irlam

Manchester Winter Index

1978-79: 262
2009-10: 197
1985-86: 159
1981-82: 149
1976-77: 141
1984-85: 140
1995-96: 135
1990-91: 126
2010-11: 119
2008-09: 105
2012-13: 102
1986-87: 100
1977-78: 90
1989-81: 90
1982-83: 85
1983-84: 82
1993-94: 78

2014-15: 78 (up to 10th Feb)

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72
1979-80: 66
2005-06: 59
2001-02: 50
2003-04: 50
1998-99: 47
2004-05: 47
2011-12: 47
1994-95: 45
2002-03: 44
1992-93: 43
1975-76: 41
1991-92: 40
1987-88: 37
2007-08: 37
1973-74: 30
1974-75: 26
1989-90: 26
1997-98: 25
2006-07: 21
1988-89: 20
2013-14: 7 

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline KevBrads1  
#887 Posted : 11 February 2015 19:30:51(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,639
Location: Irlam

Highlights of the winter was Boxing Day evening with the best rain to snow transistion for some years. It was rapid and the snow accumulated almost the moment when transistion was complete.

After what was a disappointing overnight period, the snow finally fell the next morning. Despite the wet ground, snow accumulated easily. 29th January.

That night, there was the polar low, some despute over whether it was actually one but it delivered snow here

Not convince we will see much now before the meteorological winter ends.

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline seringador  
#888 Posted : 12 February 2015 21:31:39(UTC)
seringador

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,434
Man
Portugal
Location: Porto

Nice timelapes's
2018 Extremes

Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)

Min Temp: 0.7ºC ( 28.01.2018)

Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)

@iClimateAdviser

Offline Stormchaser  
#889 Posted : 13 February 2015 20:55:00(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,774
Man
Location: West Hants

Not exactly on topic, but a spring discussion thread rarely fares well on TWO so I'll stick this here:

That's a pretty strong signal emerging for March from the CFS model. It translates to surface highs more toward Central/Eastern Europe with surface lows running close to the NW of the UK.

Potentially chilly at times if an easterly flow has any influence early in the month, otherwise a good chance of increasingly above average temperatures in a SW flow with variable surface conditions in the UK, driest in the SE.

Usual caveats apply - only one model, LRFs are often a bit hopeless, etc.

 

Looking on an broader time scale, here's the Met Office ensemble mean outlook for SLP across spring 2015 as a whole:

Another strong signal,  this time for the Azores High to be strong and often displaced or ridging across the UK.

By contrast, the January update had a fairly strong negative pressure anomaly centered over Scotland. Though this was for Feb-Apr rather than Mar-May, it still suggests a fairly big shift in the model's ideas for a fairly large part of spring.

As usual, a similar setup then persists with only slight changes when looking at the Apr-Jun and May-Jul maps. Overall, that would be a very dry outcome for the SW in particular, but then this model suite does seem to have a habit of sticking with the same idea for months on end.

 

I do wish we could freely see mean charts for the upcoming month in isolation, but I guess they feel that would take some value away from the pay-to-access products that offer such focus.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline KevBrads1  
#890 Posted : 22 February 2015 08:16:44(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,639
Location: Irlam

Background conditions for these winters

1974-75

Low sunspot number, East QBO, weak La Niña, a November Canadian warming, January monthly mean temp. at 90N at 30hpa: -65C

1978-79

High sunspot number, West QBO, neutral ENSO, cold November mean 30hpa, temp., a December Canadian warming, January monthly mean temp. at 90N at 30hpa: -75C

Yet 1974-75 is one of the mildest winters on record and 1978-79 was a severe winter.

 

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline KevBrads1  
#891 Posted : 01 March 2015 07:36:49(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,639
Location: Irlam

Manchester Winter Index
1978-79: 262
2009-10: 197
1985-86: 159
1981-82: 149
1976-77: 141
1984-85: 140
1995-96: 135
1990-91: 126
2010-11: 119
2008-09: 105
2012-13: 102
1986-87: 100
1977-78: 90
1980-81: 90
1982-83: 85
1983-84: 82
2014-15: 82
1993-94: 78
2000-01: 77
1996-97: 72
1979-80: 66
2005-06: 59
2001-02: 50
2003-04: 50
1998-99: 47
2004-05: 47
2011-12: 47
1994-95: 45
2002-03: 44
1992-93: 43
1975-76: 41
1991-92: 40
1987-88: 37
2007-08: 37
1973-74: 30
1974-75: 26
1989-90: 26
1997-98: 25
2006-07: 21
1988-89: 20
2013-14: 7

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Stormchaser  
#892 Posted : 03 March 2015 10:11:31(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,774
Man
Location: West Hants

There is an issue with what I call 'cold without reward' in which conditions are notably cold but not quite enough for decent snow to fall and accumulate.

This winter had a fair bit of that, though on some occasions hard frosts were of some interest and kept the mood higher than it could have been.

February, though, barely managed more than a few slight frosts beyond that promising start with a morning of lying snow. That one event saved it from being the least interesting month I've ever known.

 

At least there was plenty of sunshine, in fact it's been two record-breaking winters of sunshine down here, with this year beating last by just 0.9 hours.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Gavin P  
#893 Posted : 07 March 2015 20:29:31(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,258
Man
United Kingdom

Have issued a verification for the Winter 2014/15 forecast which you can see here;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/verification-winter-14-15.php

This brings the curtain down on Winter 14/15.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Saint Snow  
#894 Posted : 07 March 2015 21:12:15(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 44,051
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

Manchester Winter Index
1978-79: 262
2009-10: 197
1985-86: 159
1981-82: 149
1976-77: 141
1984-85: 140
1995-96: 135
1990-91: 126
2010-11: 119
2008-09: 105
2012-13: 102
1986-87: 100
1977-78: 90
1980-81: 90
1982-83: 85
1983-84: 82
2014-15: 82
1993-94: 78
2000-01: 77
1996-97: 72
1979-80: 66
2005-06: 59
2001-02: 50
2003-04: 50
1998-99: 47
2004-05: 47
2011-12: 47
1994-95: 45
2002-03: 44
1992-93: 43
1975-76: 41
1991-92: 40
1987-88: 37
2007-08: 37
1973-74: 30
1974-75: 26
1989-90: 26
1997-98: 25
2006-07: 21
1988-89: 20
2013-14: 7

 

Shocked this winter was so high, certainly my perception of the 2000/01 winter was that it was much better - although one of the 2 good snow events took place in March, so strictly speaking not winter.

Anyway, this winter was consistently *cool* and only actually cold for one brief spell. We had - I think - 3 occasions of lying snow, with the unexpected 2-3cm on Boxing Day the best. But on each occasion the snow was far too shortlived; on BD for instance it turned to rain toward the end of the period of PPN and halved the depth into a slush-fest

A really frustrating winter to experience.

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline KevBrads1  
#895 Posted : 08 March 2015 06:31:12(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,639
Location: Irlam

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Shocked this winter was so high, certainly my perception of the 2000/01 winter was that it was much better - although one of the 2 good snow events took place in March, so strictly speaking not winter.

Anyway, this winter was consistently *cool* and only actually cold for one brief spell. We had - I think - 3 occasions of lying snow, with the unexpected 2-3cm on Boxing Day the best. But on each occasion the snow was far too shortlived; on BD for instance it turned to rain toward the end of the period of PPN and halved the depth into a slush-fest

A really frustrating winter to experience.

I think this winter more than any recent winter has been dependent on location. I think that was due to the marginality and the polar maritime airmases that occurred more often than recent winters. Snow covered the field behind me in total for 7 days. Patches of snow lasted in the back garden in total for nearly a fortnight.

 

I don't recall  March 2001 delivering a snow event here. I remember the snow coming from that frontal system pushing up from the south but it never stuck at least here.

Edited by user 08 March 2015 06:34:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Global Warming  
#896 Posted : 08 March 2015 09:51:36(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,158

Met Office charts and stats for this winter

The E and NE of England saw rainfall 21% below average and sunshine 46% above average compared to the 1981-2010 mean.

W and N Scotland saw rainfall about one-third above normal

Northern Ireland was the only region that saw mean temperatures below normal. Everywhere else was just above average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2015/winter

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2015/winter/regional-values

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Saint Snow  
#897 Posted : 08 March 2015 13:24:51(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 44,051
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

I think this winter more than any recent winter has been dependent on location. I think that was due to the marginality and the polar maritime airmases that occurred more often than recent winters. Snow covered the field behind me in total for 7 days. Patches of snow lasted in the back garden in total for nearly a fortnight.

 

And the shady part of my back garden had snow lying for around 7 days. Where my dad cleared his drive, the snow-pile stuck around for about a fortnight (it became a running joke)

It just seemed the wrong side of marginal, as you say, for anything interesting to be sustained. I remember the Dec 09 (and indeed the Xmas 04) snowfall being from PM air - characterised here by a mixing in of snow pellets. This time, even though the local atmospheric parameters seemed very similar, what fell from the sky was too often rain/sleet instead of snow.

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

I don't recall  March 2001 delivering a snow event here. I remember the snow coming from that frontal system pushing up from the south but it never stuck at least here.

We got around 5cmcm. I remember going to Haigh Hall near Wigan that day and they had about 15cm. Our snow cover didn't last much beyond the next day. But, given the great snowfall on the preceding 29th Dec, and the snow-drought that had come in the winters before, it was a winter that stuck in the mind.

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Medlock Vale Weather  
#898 Posted : 08 March 2015 15:14:07(UTC)
Medlock Vale Weather

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 4,336
Man
Location: Oldham

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

 

I think this winter more than any recent winter has been dependent on location. I think that was due to the marginality and the polar maritime airmases that occurred more often than recent winters. Snow covered the field behind me in total for 7 days. Patches of snow lasted in the back garden in total for nearly a fortnight.

 

I don't recall  March 2001 delivering a snow event here. I remember the snow coming from that frontal system pushing up from the south but it never stuck at least here.

Yes I've never known a region to have such differences within just a few miles. Early 2013 was an example when people in south Manchester had almost zero snow all Winter yet we had quite a lot that Winter here in this part of Oldham spread out.... there was quite a bit of easterly winds/continental influence that Winter - I like easterlys in this part of the region they more often than not deliver.

For more western and southern parts of the region I would imagine a NW'y is the best direction especially with those Cheshire gap type scenarios... As you know from experience it's not elevation that always makes the difference it can be wind direction too. I think the further west in the region people live they are more at risk of the Irish sea moderating snow as well, making it more sleety as well, the Irish sea is milder than the North sea.

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 93 metres/305 feet above sea level.

Website: http://medlockweather.weebly.com

Weather station location: http://bit.ly/VI9CNu

What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/...wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Offline Saint Snow  
#899 Posted : 08 March 2015 18:14:11(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 44,051
Man
Location: St Helens

I've realised that, in many set-ups, there's no prescriptive methodology when it comes to forecasting snow in particular locales. Yes, the odds are that Buxton and other high-altitude places will get snow anyway.

But we've had snow here in St Helens when other neighbouring areas have had none.

Until 2013, I never had much hope for snow from an easterly, yet we had 2 or 3 events in Jan/Mar where further east toward Manchester there was little/no snow, yet here further west we got a few decent dumpings.

Similarly, we've benefitted from a NW'ly off the Irish Sea (track is around 20 miles to the sea from here looking NW'wards) with heavier/more sustained snow at times than further inland, yet other times we've had sleet/wet snow/even rain when further inland has had snow.

I've learnt to not expect anything (but sulk if we don't get snow and others do )

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Medlock Vale Weather  
#900 Posted : 09 March 2015 00:55:29(UTC)
Medlock Vale Weather

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 4,336
Man
Location: Oldham

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

I've realised that, in many set-ups, there's no prescriptive methodology when it comes to forecasting snow in particular locales. Yes, the odds are that Buxton and other high-altitude places will get snow anyway.

But we've had snow here in St Helens when other neighbouring areas have had none.

Until 2013, I never had much hope for snow from an easterly, yet we had 2 or 3 events in Jan/Mar where further east toward Manchester there was little/no snow, yet here further west we got a few decent dumpings.

Similarly, we've benefitted from a NW'ly off the Irish Sea (track is around 20 miles to the sea from here looking NW'wards) with heavier/more sustained snow at times than further inland, yet other times we've had sleet/wet snow/even rain when further inland has had snow.

I've learnt to not expect anything (but sulk if we don't get snow and others do )

One thing is for sure considering we are closer to the North Pole than we are to the Equator we should do a heck of a lot better with cold & snow, in fact any where North of 45 degrees should be guaranteed to have long cold & snowy Winters, yet we are almost 10 degrees North of that but it's still like pot luck. Of course the Gulf Stream is one of the biggest culprits in terms of us getting a decent Winter and another 10 things like the natural cycle of west to east cyclogensis giving us milder air off the Atlantic instead of east to west off the much colder continent and Siberia.

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 93 metres/305 feet above sea level.

Website: http://medlockweather.weebly.com

Weather station location: http://bit.ly/VI9CNu

What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/...wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

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