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Offline sriram  
#1 Posted : 13 August 2014 11:50:35(UTC)
sriram

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,305
Man
Location: Sedgley West Midlands

What do people reckon for next winter

On the bright side it cannot be any worse than last winter

I think it will be a much better winter than last year with frequent cold and snow - just a hunch

Any thoughts - scientific or gut feeling welcome

Edited by moderator 10 November 2014 23:40:52(UTC)  | Reason: Made sticky, expanded title

Sriram

Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )

162m ASL

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Offline Whether Idle  
#2 Posted : 13 August 2014 12:12:18(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,169
Man
Location: Dover

Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline Quantum  
#3 Posted : 13 August 2014 12:34:33(UTC)
Quantum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 27/11/2009(UTC)
Posts: 14,406

The metoffice base their forecast among other things on the atlantic SSTs, it gives an idea of what the NAO is likely to be come the winter. Ofc if the NAO is negative then cold and snow is almost axiomatic (if the AO follows suit).

Current SSTs

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.11.2014.gif

This time last year

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.12.2013.gif

 

What we are looking for is a tripole pattern, i.e Warm in the south, Cold in the mids, Warm in the north. Last year there was no real sign of this pattern at all. This year there is a tiny patch of cold in the mids, and there is warmth in the north. But no warmth in the south. From this alone, an average or mild winter is implied.

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Offline Matty H  
#4 Posted : 13 August 2014 12:36:05(UTC)
Matty H

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Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 65,215
Man
Location: Lost

No one knows. There's no remotely proven method for forecasting two seasons away and I find speculation absolutely pointless. It's like giving an opinion on what you think will happen in July 2080. Utterly pointless, but still carry on.

Are we not having an autumn this year?

Yate, Nr Bristol

Offline Matty H  
#5 Posted : 13 August 2014 12:38:01(UTC)
Matty H

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 65,215
Man
Location: Lost

Perfectly valid to discuss what you'd like to happen. For me a repeat of last winter would be am absolute dream come true. Statistically unlikely, but we can always hope.
Yate, Nr Bristol

Offline turbotubbs  
#6 Posted : 13 August 2014 12:40:58(UTC)
turbotubbs

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/06/2013(UTC)
Posts: 390
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Warminster

Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post
No one knows. There's no remotely proven method for forecasting two seasons away and I find speculation absolutely pointless. It's like giving an opinion on what you think will happen in July 2080. Utterly pointless, but still carry on.

Are we not having an autumn this year?
I think we're having autumn now...

Have to agree with the City fan, there is no reliable way to do this kind of forecast - you may as well get the seaweed out and hang it on the wall. On the otherhand if we want to talk about what we hope might happen, then that's a different story. On that basis I'd like some good cold spells to try to limit the garden pests for next summer!

Online ARTzeman  
#7 Posted : 13 August 2014 12:44:52(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Posts: 25,618
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Cold .. Frost and fog,, Cold coming off the Atlantic  will make it snow more than the past 4 years. May have more Siberian winds from the east to contend with.. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

Offline Gooner  
#8 Posted : 13 August 2014 13:03:00(UTC)
Gooner

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Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 42,226
Man

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post
Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless.

 

Like wise WI , was indeed woeful

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Rob K  
#9 Posted : 13 August 2014 13:08:30(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,950
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post
Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless.

 

Like wise WI , was indeed woeful

Woeful perhaps, but just look at how my energy bills compared to the previous winter (in white)!

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Offline Gooner  
#10 Posted : 13 August 2014 13:09:52(UTC)
Gooner

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 42,226
Man

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Gooner  
#11 Posted : 13 August 2014 13:12:07(UTC)
Gooner

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 42,226
Man

Originally Posted by: Rob K Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post
Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless.

 

Like wise WI , was indeed woeful

Woeful perhaps, but just look at how my energy bills compared to the previous winter (in white)!

Irrelevant for me as my two log burners do the job for pence .

But understand what you are saying

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Online Saint Snow  
#12 Posted : 13 August 2014 14:07:37(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 42,860
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Cold .. Frost and fog,, Cold coming off the Atlantic  will make it snow more than the past 4 years. May have more Siberian winds from the east to contend with.. 

 

If Dec 14 is snowier than Dec 10, then it'd be amazing!!!

 

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Offline DEW  
#13 Posted : 13 August 2014 14:15:23(UTC)
DEW

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Man
Location: Chichester 12m. asl

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Offline sizzle  
#14 Posted : 13 August 2014 14:43:16(UTC)
sizzle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,419
Man
Location: Essex

long as winter was better than last year, I.E colder, ice some snow, and NE, E, winds then HAPPY DAYS,

 

Offline Solar Cycles  
#15 Posted : 13 August 2014 15:13:51(UTC)
Solar Cycles

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/09/2008(UTC)
Posts: 18,170
Man
Location: Blackburn Lancs

Originally Posted by: Quantum Go to Quoted Post

The metoffice base their forecast among other things on the atlantic SSTs, it gives an idea of what the NAO is likely to be come the winter. Ofc if the NAO is negative then cold and snow is almost axiomatic (if the AO follows suit).

Current SSTs

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.11.2014.gif

This time last year

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.12.2013.gif

 

What we are looking for is a tripole pattern, i.e Warm in the south, Cold in the mids, Warm in the north. Last year there was no real sign of this pattern at all. This year there is a tiny patch of cold in the mids, and there is warmth in the north. But no warmth in the south. From this alone, an average or mild winter is implied.

Statiscally speaking an avearge winter is the form horse and with solar activity at moderate levels and the SST's  which Gavin highlighted back in May, all pointing to an avearge to mild winter. Then again my old knees are a much better indicator to the coming winter than any predictive model and best guesstimate.

Offline Medlock Vale Weather  
#16 Posted : 13 August 2014 15:30:42(UTC)
Medlock Vale Weather

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 4,335
Man
Location: Oldham

I recorded colder temps last Autumn than the following Winter - that just shows how rubbish Winter was! hopefully this Winter will be better but we have no control over it so just a case of waiting and hoping. Still a long while off meteorologically.

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 93 metres/305 feet above sea level.

Website: http://medlockweather.weebly.com

Weather station location: http://bit.ly/VI9CNu

What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/...wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Offline Gavin P  
#17 Posted : 13 August 2014 15:45:41(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,131
Man
United Kingdom

Do you want an early sneak peek at my Winter 14/15 forecast:?

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You'll find out at the end of November.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Essan  
#18 Posted : 13 August 2014 15:48:21(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 29,887
Antarctica
Location: Albion

According to the non-solar SLATless antipodean forecasting system:-

Very mild start.   December may well be snow and frost free in most parts.    Ski resorts worried.   Year ends warmest on record.

However a spell of quite cold and snowy weather setting in around end of Jan or first half of Feb 2015 - which could even produce some record lows in one of two spots and/or significant snow falls in places that rarely see much snow.

Overall though, a milder than average winter - despite the late cold snap.

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.

Weather & Earth Science News

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Offline Essan  
#19 Posted : 13 August 2014 15:51:02(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 29,887
Antarctica
Location: Albion

Originally Posted by: Matty H Go to Quoted Post


Are we not having an autumn this year?


We've already had autum once this year.  It was called January February and March ......

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.

Weather & Earth Science News

Cape Wrath and Beyond - My blog for the Cape Wrath Trail 2019 charity walk.

Offline sizzle  
#20 Posted : 13 August 2014 16:00:48(UTC)
sizzle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,419
Man
Location: Essex

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Do you want an early sneak peek at my Winter 14/15 forecast:?

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

You'll find out at the end of November.

   YOU BIG TEASE.

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